So what will the Pacific air power threats look like in the coming years? One answer is that the Flanker
has taken a fork in it's development with the Chinese adding some home equipment for their J-11B. What has started as a knock-off is moving forward based on a domestic manufacturing development spiral. No matter what one thinks of the Flanker, it does have growth room.
The F-22 can't be everywhere. Which means that in the coming
years, if the U.S. goes on the warpath, it might find some areas a bit
more contested. With words
like this
from the U.S. Army it is only a matter of time before the financial
problems of an in-debt U.S. takes it's toll on U.S. defense procurement
and U.S. recapitalization of modern aircraft. U.S. defense procurement
has a tradition of cost over-runs that may have gotten it though the cold war, but will now be faced by an ever less tolerant U.S. Congress trying to pay all the bills.
With the realities facing the U.S. Air Force, funding everything to do today's mission isn't just about fighter aircraft. Not by a long shot. It is now safe to say that over the next 20 years the U.S. Air Force will shrink. There won't be anything close to the current numbers of U.S. fighter aircraft. The air domination monopoly enjoyed by the U.S. for a very long time may struggle in a future war. Add to this, that the path taken by the U.S. Navy's future composition of shooter aircraft is not written. Fortunately the U.S Navy, ship building troubles and all, has an
inexpensive solution to put at least something on the deck with a new car smell should other options run into trouble. The U.S. will need a serious rethink on military force composition if they want to be effective in future Pacific Rim security operations. Where will the money come from?