Air France is about to open a new epoch with the first of twelve Airbus A380s it has ordered just coming out of the Hamburg paint shop sporting Air France livery (our illustration). The airplane returned to Toulouse where it was assembled, and will soon be joined by a second A380, currently undergoing final assembly in the giant assembly halls at the AeroConstellation industrial site in Blagnac.Ironically, Air France's first A380 appeared on the scene (discreetly) the same day that the airline announced new restrictions in capacity and referred to the possibility of partial layoffs to balance supply and demand and survive the fiscal year 2009/2010. Traffic in fact continues to shrink, and all of the carriers are feeling the impact of overcapacity, including the best managed and most dynamic ones.
Of course, when ordering the A380 a few years ago, Air France could not know it would be delivered in the trough of a particularly serious recession. Consequently, the airline recently negotiated with Airbus to spread out some of its deliveries.
Air France's A380s will be fitted out with 538 seats (the manufacturer's type configuration is 525), with 80 in business class and only nine in first class. This revealing sign of the times results from the free-fall of first-class, which may be on its way to extinction.

Is it a paradox to deploy the enormous A380 at a time when traffic is marking time? Certainly not, assuming that it flies several times per day on long-haul, high traffic routes. An A380 offers more or less the same capacity as two Boeing 777s, and measurably lower cost, consequently, offering economic advantages.
So Air France has logically chosen to begin deployment of this aerial ocean liner between Paris and New York. It will be the first airline to operate the mega aircraft on the North Atlantic route, and could benefit from that novelty. The airline's CEO, Pierre-Henri Gourgeon emphasized that the A380’s performance characteristics are well suited to the current economic context.
Airbus no doubt expects a lot from this new A380 operator. From a strictly operational standpoint, the plane has been very successful since it first went into service. Its technical reliability is excellent, but the economic context remains nonetheless unfavorable. Consequently, the European manufacturer has been in no hurry to increase production rates. Only 14 of the big planes will roll out of AeroConstellation this year, and about 20 in 2010.
At the moment, A380 orders are stagnant at 200 airplanes, with little likelihood that any new orders will be signed in coming months. Quite to the contrary, other delivery postponements are possible, such as that requested by British Airways a few days ago.
In the long-term, the A380 has every chance of success, since it corresponds to needs driven by population growth in major cities, as well as the overall increase in air traffic. For Airbus and its parent company EADS, the challenge remains to make this operation a financial success. Return on investment will be tricky, calling for a great deal of patience, with the economic break even point at over 500 aircraft.
For the time being, only 15 airlines, plus ILFC, the large California leasing company, have ordered the A380. This points to a potentially significant market, though optimistic predictions remain a delicate matter, given the current distress affecting the entire commercial aviation industry.
Pierre Sparaco-AeroMorning