I posted something like this in another forum, and so far people think the 747-8I still has a chance at success. However, I notice a lot of people seem to be writing it off so soon. Right now, the A380 isn't proving to be succesful, because carriers are seeking to defer them. Here's why I think it still has a chance...

 - The design freeze came right before the economic nosedive (any airline considering it had to go into survival mode).

- It has engine commonality with the 787, which means it will fit well into 787 operators, which there will (eventually) be a lot of.

- It is pretty much a whole new plane when compared to previous 747s (first stretch, new wing, new cockpit, etc). The 737NG's success has shown us that even older designs if refreshed enough can be succesful.

- Finally, the 747-8I can access over 200 airports worldwide, the A380 can only do 40.

Anyone buying more 747's of any type is getting a plane that is basically nearly 50 years old - great it may be but do you see anyone wanting to be operating them in another 30 years?  Their resale value will be very very low once (if?) the 787 and the A380 really start to arrive in numbers.

 It's perhaps a short term fix for a couple of airlines who have got their capacity planning wrong

The airport access arguement is a red herring - once an airline says it wants to bring in A380's the airports will modify their stands.  Exactly the same was said when the 747 replaced the 707 and that required a LOT more changes than the A380 over a 747

Are We Writing Off The 747-8I Too Soon ?     Yes....let's wait for an improved economic climate, traffic demand to recover and the A380 to prove itself first and then re-visit 747-8 concerns. 

FSL you point about "getting a plane that is basically nearly 50 years old" is not really a point IMHO if...the 747-8 can achieve competitive or comparable seat-mile costs vs an A380 or be the heavy freighter of choice.

Yes, look at the 737 (which incidentally, was also launched by Lufthansa), it's as old as the 747, but continues to sell well. So much has chanced on the 748I (new wing, new engine, new cockpit, stretch, more composites, etc) that it is pretty much a new plane (just like the 737NG pretty much being a new plane when compared to the 737 Classics.

 Look at the Bombardier CSeries. It's a NEW design, but the recession is dampening it's sales.

Having talked to someone involved in the evaluation of the 747-8 and A380 for a major airline selection , I was told that the B747-8 operational economics numbers don't stack up compared to the Airbus .They went for the A380.

Boeing 787-8 achieved power last friday on according to Flightblogger

Its truly a revamped design but Boeings venture with the 747-8 & its passenger varient sadly appears destined for failure with only one commercial order Lufthansa as sole operator of the type is taking a considerable risk. To say Boeing are desperate to keep Lufthansa's 747-8 would be a gross understatement.

Its only competitor the A380 whilst not perfect in terms of current servicability is really wooing passengers away from carriers who operate 747-4 on the same routes. The result, 747-4 operators have seen load factors spiral down, the only option has been for these 747-8 carriers to reduce ticket prices & on these routes to levels never seen before. The consequence, European Middle East, Far East & Kangaroo routes all operated by various carriers with A380's have never been cheaper to fly

In terms of economics British Airways decision to go with the A380 was an almost fatal hammer blow to Boeings 747-8 sales asperations, with BA's own claimed A380 economics over the 747-8 being in excess of 12% even before the first 747-8 flight, subsequent production aircraft statistics will as usual are almost guaranteed to be even worse.

Not good.      

I can't see how the A380 is proving to be unsuccessful? The program has accumulated 200 orders from major, respected carriers such as Singapore Airlines, Emirates, QANTAS, Qatar, Etihad, Air France, BA and Lufthansa. Many of these compete on routes where other large respected carriers operate - such as Cathay Pacific who may eventually be forced to follow suit. Deferrals are not great but neither are they bad - especially at the moment during this unprecedented global recession. It is common sense that airlines will work to manage their spending during such uncertainty. The A380 program has not had any cancellations for the passenger version to date which is of more significance. This is also likely why the Boeing 747-8 hasn't taken off as well as it could have done. You cannot gauge the success or indeed failure of an aircraft so early into its lifetime and certainly not while everything is up in the air. The A380 has proven to be more economical than either Airbus or the Airlines operating it had hoped for and as weight comes down further ((a new more efficient version of the A380 is going to be available from 2012 with BA being the first to receive it)) it will save the airlines even more money which in turn makes it even more attractive. Both have gotten off to a slow start but i'm sure once we see an upturn in the recession we will start to see these orders rack up. Which one will win and which will lose will be down to operating costs.

In the end - the market has spoken. The fact that BA has switched camps and selected the A380 speaks volumes given their previous blind loyalty to Boeing. This leave the rest of us wondering what selection criteria Lufthansa used before opting for the 8I. The selection process would not have used emotion or sentimentality - which appears to drive a lot of the comments or the responders to this column.

I would also add that if the mooted changes to the 8I is so numerous, what certification process will be required? Should the 747-8I be looked at as a brand new design and go through the full set of certification steps? That would possibly also be weighing on the Boeing planner's minds - they need to sell enough of the new models to overcome those additional costs. 

 

  

 "I can't see how the A380 is proving to be unsuccessful? The program has accumulated 200 orders"

Granted, they have +200 orders, but eight airlines have deferred deliveries accounting for over 50% of that order book.  Airbus itself revised its break-even figures to almost 500 aircraft, and experts have continued to question even that estimate due to Airbus' habit of moving the a380 at ridiculously discounted costs to avoid white-tails.  Further, of those 200 orders it is very likely (possible if one prefers to be optimistic) that a sizeable number will be cancelled before delivery.  Airbus has revised its production rates down to 18/year, a figure much more likely to come out closer to 10-12/year based on current data.  Compare that to Airbus' hard-sell pitch of almost 400 a380's produced by 2015 and the jet is in no way growing into the imaginary VLA market niche. The likelihood of even 200 being built is slim.

"a new more efficient version of the A380 is going to be available from 2012 with BA being the first to receive it"

 BA is taking delivery of ONE a380 in 2012 as a token for the Olympics.  The remainder of their order of six will be stretched out through 2016, assuming they're not cancelled outright.

"The A380 has proven to be more economical than either Airbus or the Airlines operating it had hoped for"

 ....?  This statement has not proven true for even a single carrier operating the a380: 

Qantas has had such low yields that it's considering trimming its biz seating on the a380 to try to get more bodies on the flights, and its former CEO has stated openly that the airline should have added a 777 fleet. 

Singapore is bleeding money via its a380's and is facing cash issues down the road similar to BA's current situation. 

Thai can't justify its a380's based on not seeing a way to fill them past the 65% break-even loading touted by Airbus (which is utterly fanciful). 

BA can't work out how it can get even close to a revenue cargo load factor while also seating enough passengers as compared to its 744 fleet (a glaring issue for Qantas as well).  Revenue cargo on passenger flights is a major issue not much discussed, and the a380 doesn't come close to measuring up. BA will likely replace its 744's with 773's and 787's/a350's.

Finally, Cathay continues to stand by its belief that the a380 isn't the answer, opting for additional 777's and eyeing the a350/787 lines tied to higher frequency. 

The market has repeatedly demonstrated that frequency trumps VLA's, yet Airbus dove head-first into an aircraft program that carries more superlative descriptions than value regardless of current market conditions.  Is the 748i the answer?  Probably not a silver bullet, but it's figures are much more closely suited to current and near-future needs of the large carriers than those of the a380.  

To sddjd We'll see what happens but I stand by everything I wrote in my post. You're obviously a "Boeing Fan/Airbus Basher". Some points against your argument above.... If Thai cannot justify the A380 why did they decide to keep it during a recent review? QANTAS kitted their A380 out to hold 450 passengers so if they decide to increase capacity that's perfectly fine for them to do that. After all the plane has been designed to hold up to 853 passengers. Air France for example are utilising a 500+ configuration. The QANTAS x-CEO did not say they wish they added the 777. They thought it may have been suitable on some routes but it would have still been too big on others. QANTAS wanted to stay with the 747 for their long haul routes: "Do you feel on reflection that Qantas missed the long-range 300-seater (777) in the mid-1990s? It has withdrawn from a number of cities because its 747-400s are too large? Well . . . the jury is out. We evaluated the 777 in the mid-1990s and it was a unanimous decision that we stay with the 747-400. Sure, for Europe the 777 would have worked well for Frankfurt and Paris but even a 777 would not have worked for Rome or Athens. A considerable number of our people wanted to stay with a four-engine aircraft for the important Pacific route". Taken from interview with Geoff Dixon SOURCE: http://www.atwonline.com/magazine/article.html?articleID=2521 Deferring a delivery is not the end of the world by any means. It is simply the airline saying we still want the A380 but a little later than we originally planned. The current recession is the driving factor behind this. The airlines are doing everything they can to save huge payments to pay for the aircraft so they are deferring them to when they are able to afford the aircraft. Current market conditions are unprecedented and seemingly came from nowhere so everyone got taken off guard including Airbus and Boeing. The statement about the A380's being more fuel efficient than Airbus and the Airlines expected is totally accurate. Singapore Airlines CEO Chew Choong Seng said that the A380 was performing better than both the airline and Airbus had anticipated, burning 20% less fuel per passenger than the airline's existing 747-400 fleet. The Singapore Airlines A380 is also kitted out with around 450 seats so increasing capacity would make this even better. From 2012 Airbus will be delivering an improved A380 which offers greater take off weight and Emirates will also receive this version if not all the other customers as well. The A380 is also becoming a firm favourite with passengers. No one who has flown on the A380 has said anything bad about it from what I have been able to gather. It has been warmly received thanks to all of the extra space on board. If the A380 is not suitable for any of these airlines all they have to do is cancel. They all have the right to do so because of the rights the contracts give them owing to the delays. It wouldn't take long to cancel it. On the other hand the 747-8I has yet to be built and if the 787 is anything to go by this may never get built. And of course the 787 has also suffered substantial cancellations as well as deferrals. I don't want to turn this into a continuing argument so I'll leave this here, but your argument is flawed.

That is totally wrong...

Seat1A that is totally wrong...

Gym_Class_Hero - you are spot on the 737 is the most successful commercial airplane in history. With over 6000, 737's built and a back log of over 2000 planes. The new 747-8I has 104 orders at present and will be adding more expect United Airline to firm up a large order of airplanes from Boeing in late fall that will include 747's...

It will be interesting to see what United Airlines do order. They have no gentlemen's agreement with Boeing unlike Continental and American Airlines and they have a large(ish) Airbus presence in their fleet already. They may go for the A350 which is a logical replacement for the 777 in both range and capacity. The A380 may also be considered - it all depends on what United want from their fleet going forward.

IF Boeing have to cancel the pax programme what does this do to the economics of the 744-8F programme? It looks like the market for this (freighter) aircraft is swamped at the moment (next 5+ years) and every new sale is in competition with 777F and the 744 pax conversion programme - have Boeing got their sums right on what the market demand in this market segment is? or have they just wildly developed products without co ordinating first? This looks like a complete waste of shareholders funds? The recent introduction of a 'tax' on conversions looks like desperate measures to shut the door after the horse has bolted?