Well, it all depends on whether funding remains static or is increased and/or eliminated. If an option is put forward where Obama culls no political Kudos for the decision: i.e marking time, cancelling ARES 1 going ahead with ARES lite - a disguised version of DIRECT's JUPITER in 24X form - I can see that dying a death through normal cost overruns: apparently NASA is already $47Billion in the hole due to the latter, coupled with "unexpected" items draining funds. I suppose it'll be the top echelon as usual making bad decisions, and retaining their own jobs while nursing those Golden Parachutes, whilst the Rank and File head to the dole queue....no more manned space. I knew Bolden wasa time server...