Upon a little investigating on the Pilatus website its clear to me that he was running out of gas and thats why he diverted to Butte…only 80 miles from Bozeman
Here’s why. If you go to the Pilatus website you can see all the performance data for the PC12. It is for the NG (new generation) version but I don’t think the older versions will be that much different.
First, the distance from Oroville, CA to Butte MT is about 596 miles (shorttest distance). If he took on full fuel when he left…he was over weight…and not by a little. After full fuel you are only allowed 1096 pounds. 14 people died but the pilot is counted in the emty weight. So 7 childrenX55 lbs=385lbs. 6 adults X175 lbs=1050lbs. Total=1435lbs…already over weight and I haven’t even accounted for any luggage and perhaps skis…but needless to say it was probably >500lbs overweight. But that isnt where the real problem lies.
If you look on the Pilatus website for the range of this aircraft…something very interesting jumps out. With no payload (other than fuel) and at 30,000 feet…the PC12 NG has a range of approx. 1500 miles with reserves. Bump the payload up to max and the range drops to 600 plus IFR reserves. Hence, weight plays a big deal in the range on this aircraft. So if he had full fuel he would have been more than 500lbs overweight and probably less than 600 miles of range. Any less fuel would have made the situation worse as would flying at lower than 30,000. His flight plan stated 25,000
Now there was fire at the crash site but there is going to be 5-7 gallons of unusable fuel in the tank and in all likelyhood there was probably more…as banking and turning for final could prevent fuel from flowing continuously to the engine.
So they can speculate on ice and/or being overweight, but I think this is just going to be a case of fuel starvation from high fuel consumption from a heavy/overweight airplane.
Perhaps some PC12 guys on here could shed some real life situations, i.e. fuel burn and such.
JMHO