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Boeing expects to achieve improvements in the payload/range performance of the 747-8 through weight-savings and engine improvements....

Author: Max Kingsley-Jones

Date: 17 June 2009

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First, does anyone take seriously anything Boeing says about any of its commercial programs in light of the complete 787 debacle? I doubt it, so who knows what is really happening or going to happen with the 747-8.  It is one horrible, incompetent thing to botch the 787 program, with its revolutionary composit design and bold, highly dispersed  production system.  It is another for Boeing to screw up the re-design of a plane they have been building for 40 years.  If engineers using slide rules could get the original 747 out the door on time in 1969, and if designers using primitive computers could get the -400, with its entirely new wing, delivered only about 6 mos late, why can't todays boffins with all the computer power in the universe, complete the -8 design as scheduled, particularly given that its main improvement is a new wing made entirely of metal? 

Second, does anyone know what exactly it is that Lufthansa sees in the -8I which others do not?  I don't mean to say that the -8I is a dog.  Far from it.  It seems on paper at least to be a terrific aircraft.  Lufthansa is committed not only to an intial 20, but also holds options (not lesser rights such as "purchase rights") for 20 more.  Also, if I recall correctly, Lufthansa has for years been asking Boeing to enlarge the 747, starting back when AB was initally working on the 380. Does anyone know what gives? 

This is Boeings true Achilles heel project which really seems to be going nowhere, currently reliant on several volume freighter orders probably means that unless more commercial passenger airframes are sold it destined for disaster.

No airline wants to be sole operator of a type, therefore Lufthansa's order as the only passenger operator looks likely to be pulled if it finds it's alone flying the type. Payload & range increases based on Boeings projected figures are essential if it plans to meet the same operational economics of the A380 but the squeez economics are seeking don't add up on such a relatively small production run.   

Boeing is behind working to bring the 747-8 program into production due to the problems with the 787 program. Because of all the start-up problems with the 787 program, engineering resources were allocated to resolve the 787 program issues leaving the 747-8 program well understaffed to handle the required engineering outputs. Yes, the 747-8 program is mostly a redesign of the wings from metal to composites, however, this makes it like a new aircraft program and must go through the same design and testing like the 787 program requirements. With that in mind, Boeing, at one time, had a ratio of (4) engineers working on the 787 wings during design and testing to (1) for the 747-8 with both requiring the same level of effort for design and testing. As the problems are being resolved on the 787 program, more help to complete the 747-8 engineering requirements is on the way but too late to meet the original delivery goals. If the 787 program had met or been much closer to its original production schedule, the 747-8 program would be closer to or on schedule as well.