Flightglobal: The market for very light jets over the next 10 years could nose dive if the recession gripping many Western economies is as long and deep as some analysts predict, according to the latest report from UK aviation consultancy PMI Medi...Author: Kate SarsfieldDate: 04 December 2008Read the full article
Author: Kate Sarsfield
Date: 04 December 2008
Read the full article
It surprises and disappoints that a publication with the authority of Flight continues to reproduce such studies with no attempt to hold the forecasters accountable for accuracy. While this article notes that the latest PMI forecast is down 23% of the company's projections from just two months ago, it fails to mention that the forecast is 40% down on its 2007 projection (48% lower by value).
In this particular instance, PMI was one of a number of entities whose VLJ forecasts were clearly unjustifiable and unsustainable in terms of capacity, training and regulatory approvals, even before the hence risk of economic cycles was considered. A large number of respected individuals within the industry have for years been predicting that the VLJ bubble would quickly burst (rendering the vast sums spent by VLJ OEMs on stands at NBAA, Paris and Farnborough foolhardy), but the 'to infinity and beyond' forecasts were apparently 'sexier' to print.
This lack of accountability regarding forecasts is not unique to PMI: the bizav/GA market is saturated with reports from a plethora of consultancies (Forecast International, Teal, Frost & Sullivan) and industry suppliers (Honeywell, Rolls Royce), not to mention investment houses and the OEMs themselves. Of these, Forecast International has become less reliable in recent years (trading quality for quantity); Teal is well respected but lacks detail; Frost & Sullivan is entirely unconvincing; Rolls Royce has become unreliable in recent years (with huge swings in its helicopter projections); and even the well-respected Honeywell forecast seems to have slipped, with the bizav prediction presented at NBAA clearly being several months out of date.
Since the forecasters do not appear to hold themselves accountable perhaps the number crunchers at Flight could undertake a review of the historical accuracy of these projections, and use this 'report card' to decide which predictions are included in the magazine and which are not.
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