Infraero are now insisting that the aircraft did not aquaplane because "the surface water depth [on the runway] would not have exceeded 3mm".
Hmmmm. I'm calling B.S. on this one.
Look at the footage again. Now, I'm no meteoroligist but with the amount of spray that the aircraft was kicking up during its final 15 - 20 seconds suggests to me that there was a a lot more water on that runway surface than the authorities are admitting to.
For argument's sake, let's say that the aircraft didn't aquaplane. Why then did it take until the final 5 seconds of its roll for the operative thrust reverser on the port engine to kick in? If the crew had realised that there was a problem in bringing the aircraft to a halt within safe limits, surely they would have rolled off of the runway centreline well before they got to the end of 35L, immediately after the reverser had first engaged?
My theory is that the aircraft did aquaplane and there was a vast quantity of surface water over the majority of that runway's length.
There was a quote on one of the Brazilian news sites yesterday (19/07/2007) alleging that rain water measurements had been taken on the runway shortly before PR-MBK made its final approach. Who is to say that these measurements had been taken the entire length of the runway? Maybe whoever was in charge of doing it took measurements from the ends of the runway, instead of mid-field? If that turns out to be the case, I believe that what you're seeing on the footage which was posted yesterday (where the aircraft appears to swerve off to the left) might turn out to be the only section of the runway where the A320 was able to obtain any friction with the surface; positive contact with the runway surface plus the effects of reverse thrust on the port engine means that the aircraft is going to unexpectedly swing to the left......
I'll be reserving judgement on this until I actually read the transcript of the CVR (assuming that the data on it is useable), but I'm loathe to trust anything that is said in the press in the days after a major incident like this.
Just my $0.02.
Titch
Vidi, Vici, Veni. I saw, I conquered, I came.