The business of widebody airframe maintenance is fragmented, with the most active player - Air France Industries/KLM Engineering & Maintenance - holding just 6.7% of the market (by number of aircraft maintained), according to Flight's ACAS Database. Together, the top 10 providers account for 43.8% of market share.
AFI/KLM is one of three top 10 providers headquartered in Europe, the others being Lufthansa Technik and British Airways Engineering, though of course MRO is a global business - no major provider can be confined to a particular region. Still, it is striking that five of the top 10 spots (including second and third places) are taken by providers headquartered in Asia. The top 10 is completed by two US-based providers (in fifth and 10th).
If the enormously popular 777 family is taken as a case study, AFI-KLM is found to extend its lead with a 13.9% share. Three Asia-headquartered providers complete the top four: SIA Engineering Company on 12.5%, Ameco Beijing on 10.2% and ST Aerospace on 6.4%. Yet the market is still a fragmented one, with only the top six holding more than 2% each and the top 10 as a whole accounting for less than 60%.
Airlines' tendency to outsource widebody maintenance continues to vary widely by region. In Europe the phenomenal success of the low-cost model, with its focus on core competences, is reflected, albeit indirectly, in the huge majority of aircraft that are maintained by third-party providers. Just 5.8% of 949 widebody aircraft are maintained in-house, suggesting that widebody operators have been forced to embrace low-cost principles to remain competitive.
MAINTENANCE REQUIREMENTS
The USA is not immune from this trend. Where once it was normal practice for major carriers to handle maintenance in-house, the post-9/11 recession drove the likes of United, Northwest and Delta to restructure their maintenance operations. The upshot is that today only about 20% of North America's widebody fleet is maintained in-house.
Similarly, maintenance of Africa's small fleet is largely outsourced, by an almost 75% majority, but in Asia the split is far more even. Outsourcing is only just winning the argument, with 51.9% of widebody jets covered by third-party agreements. Given that five Asia-headquartered MRO providers are in the top 10, it is no surprise that Asia's widebody fleet is larger than any other region's. It totals 1,285 aircraft, ahead of North America's 969 and Europe's 949.
"There's a more limited rationale to outsourcing airframe heavy maintenance in Asia Pacific," says AeroStrategy consultant David Stewart. "In the US, they've got the bug: you've got a vibrant independent sector, the airlines don't think it's core business, and you can send work to Asia or Central America. In Asia Pacific, you've got low labour costs on your doorstep, and you've got national carriers that generate lots of man-hours."
However, in the Middle East and South America in-house maintenance continues to hold sway. Roughly 65% of the Middle East's 279 widebodies are maintained in-house, as are a similar proportion of South America's 98 widebodies. But ambitious players such as Abu Dhabi Aircraft Technologies (ADAT) and Brazilian maintenance company VEM are looking to change this picture in their respective markets. ADAT has invested $100 million in a three-bay A380 hangar, and intends to compete in the A350 XWB and 787 markets.
When it comes to outsourcing maintenance widebody operators have more options than their narrowbody counterparts, for the simple reason that widebodies can be shipped further for maintenance without the need for expensive, inefficient refuelling. In the recent past, rapidly escalating fuel prices have prevented operators from taking full advantage of these options, but the recent reversal of the trend may widen MRO providers' catchment areas.
However, there are counteracting forces at work. Stewart observes that over the next decade the average man-hours per event will fall by 20%, and labour-rate differentials between the regions are also set to decrease. "It might be that the airframe heavy maintenance market will become more regional in nature, even for widebody aircraft," he suggests.
Further out, the maturation of 787 and A350 XWB aircraft will bring further declines in average man-hours per event. "The rationale for having the maintenance in-house for some of the airlines that operate these aircraft just disappears," says Stewart. "You just need a much larger base fleet to generate the necessary volume that would justify in-house capability."
For now, though, fragmentation will probably continue to characterise the widebody heavy maintenance market. "The real restructuring will come in the decade after next, when you've got these very non-man-hour-intensive airframes like the 787 and A350 XWB around," Stewart says. "People still like to build hangars... hangarmania is alive and well in some parts of the world."
We chart key recent market developments as part of our regular series of maintenance special reports
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