Bad moon rising: the aviation recession looms

For Adam Pilarski, the noted analyst at Avitas, there is only one song that represents the outlook for the industry: Bad moon rising by Creedence Clearwater Revival.

Speaking at the Commercial Aviation Annual US Valuation Conference in Washington DC today, Pilarski says recession is inevitable. But when will it happen – that is another question.The entertaining Pilarski has changed his tune since last year, when the good times were still rolling. His theme tune at the 2006 conference was the famous Disney tune “Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Da” – a song of optimism.

For Pilarski, the industry is definitely approaching or at the peak. This is in tune with all the traffic figures of the past couple of years. However, he is an economist who believes in the cycle, and that it is inevitable that the downturn will come, and that the chances of it being a recession are increasing.

He does see some positives, such as growth markets like China and India. “If I were a betting man, we will survival this slowdown right now, and that we have a couple or three years until the next collapse,” he says.

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