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Malev continues European airlines' winter of discontent

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So Malev has become the second established European carrier (its history dates back to 1946) in a week to suspend operations. While there have been some smaller airline casualties in Europe so far this year - Czech Connect and Germany's Cirrus Airlines both suspended flights while seeking new finance (another, Austrian carrier Air Alps, has now resumed flights after earlier suspending operations in January), it is the fall of Malev and Spanair over the last seven days which demonstrates how tough it is for airlines in Europe. Malev and Spanair are both established in alliances - Oneworld and Star Alliance respectively - and feature in the top 150 airlines by revenues.

MALEV

  • 21 aircraft
  • Revenues $421m (2010)
  • Passengers: 3.05m (2010)

SPANAIR

  • 29 aircraft
  • Revenues $800m (2010 Airline Business estimate)
  • Passengers: 6.96m (2010)

This is rapidly looking like it might become a winter of discontent for Europe's airlines. The region is forecast for losses this year as they battle the headwinds of high fuel prices and the eurozone woes. And enforcement of European Commission state aid rules is adding further pressure to those who might previously have taken comfort from the state for support. (For more on this pressure check out our ANALYSIS: Spanair collapse bad news for state-funded airlines article).

Alongside airline collapses, mergers are the other element to airline consolidation - and a number of deals in the works will further change the picture. How far has this journey gone? Well here is a little graphic which shows the number of passenger airlines (scheduled and charter) operating today from some of the major markets compared to 2001 - and while passenger numbers for European carriers among the top 200 airlines have jumped more than 75% over the last ten years, the number of carriers in each country has fallen (and this doesn't take account of deals in the works or shared airline ownership).

 

then and now.jpgAnd for a more detailed look on how this process has worked, look at this analysis of the Italian market - which if planned mergers are completed, will mean it will have gone from around 20 airlines to essentially three in the last decade.

Just how did we create the AB Finance iMag?

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Airline Business has once again tackled the intriguing world of aviation finance and leasing in digital format, with its first interactive special report of 2012. And after the success of last year's edition, we have again teamed up with renowned aviation financier DVB Bank.

The DVB link, along with our recent tie-up with aviation consultancy Ascend, has enabled us to really get under the skin of this sector of the industry, tackling the issues that are in the forefront of people's minds at the moment. This has seen us tap the views of bankers, airframers and analysts to explain and explore the issues.

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Flightglobal's iMag team (l to r) Max, Laura, Alex, Fay, Andy, Babs, Gareth, Alexis, Becky, Graham and Olivier

 

These include the "jitters" about the availability of funding in 2012, the impact of the re-engined narrowbodies on current production aircraft, and the "funding gap" that makes trading of young secondhand airliners difficult.

ab-ifinance-cover.jpgIn the latest interactive we speak to Airbus's John Leahy, Boeing's Kostya Zolotusky and DVB Bank's Bertrand Grabowski and Bert van Leeuwen, as well as EADS finance guru Hans Peter Ring.  We've also cross-examined some analysts - Ascend's Eddy Pieniazek and Chris Tarry from CTAIRA.

The Ascend connection has enabled us to slice and dice the fleets of the major lessors, as well as take a deep dive into the evolution of the aviation leasing sector, which is illustrated with some familiar faces from the leasing world.

Contributions for the editorial content have also come from across the Flightglobal group.  My own efforts have been superbly supported by Fay Sanders - editor of Ascend's Aviation Exchange - who conducted the interviews with the DVB bankers. Flightglobal finance editors Olivier Bonnassies and Laura Mueller also put in much time and effort to ensure that all the bases of the aviation finance world were covered. This included Olivier tackling the video interviews with Boeing Capital's Kostya Zolotusky.

And of course the iMag wouldn't have become a reality without a huge production effort. Gareth Burgess juggled producing the lively cover and snazzy interactive graphics with the final preparations for his wedding to Emma (pictured below just after they tied the knot last Saturday).

DSC08117a-lr.jpgThe videos were, as ever, a joint effort involving the very pregnant Babs Cockburn (ably assisted by Becky) and Andy Costerton. The iMag design and layout was tackled once again by Alexis Rendell, with production undertaken Kern and the team at FMG. Last but not least - many thanks to my core AB team of Graham Dunn and Alex Thomas for all the help in the delivery of yet another great interactive.

We've got more of these iMags planned in 2012, so stay tuned to flightglobal.com!

And if you haven't had a chance to look at the latest iMag - then click here..

Why the CSeries faces a crunch year

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Few would dispute that the Bombardier CSeries has all the potential to re-benchmark short-haul flying. But, arguably, a decade ago so did the Fairchild Dornier 728. And we all know what happened to that

That, of course, is not the only similarity between these two short-haul twinjets. Both were launched by Lufthansa.

FD728Rollout.JPGFifteen years ago, the much-trumpeted launch and ensuing sales success of the 728 (pictured above at its roll-out shortly before the programme was cancelled and Lufthansa had to devise a "plan b") shook the regional incumbents Bomabardier and Embraer into action. Bombardier decided to leverage its strong market presence with the 50-seat CRJ by stretching and rewinging the jet. Embraer couldn't follow its Canadian rival as its three-abreast cabin ERJ family was not suitable for stretch. Instead, it decided to take the bold step of launching its four-abreast E-Jet family with the backing of flamboyant Crossair CEO Moritz Suter. A decade on, Embraer has sold over 1,000 E-Jets.

Faced with another threat on its home turf, this time from its old rival, there was much speculation that Embraer might again have to dig deep into its pockets to create a viable rival to the CSeries.

But after an extensive evaluation - amid much speculation about a potential "clean-sheet" five-abreast design with advanced turbofans to counter Montreal's move - Embraer has decided not to spend silly money and this time will limit any response to a less costly re-engined (and possibly stretched) ERJ development.

This decision was no doubt partly inspired by the market's staggering response last year to the re-engined narrowbodies from Airbus and Boeing. The size of the success was indeed a surprise to both of them, and Bombardier must also have been a little shocked.

There's no doubt that Airbus has made good the declaration by Airbus VP Tom Williams a couple of years ago that Toulouse was on a mission to "destroy" the CSeries business case with the Neo and stop Bombardier "building a beachhead" at in the foothills of the A320's market. When I asked Tom Enders last week in Hamburg whether Airbus was still worried by the threat of the CSeries, he replied "not so much, now".

And yesterday at the opening of Qatar Airways' snazzy new lounge at Heathrow's T4, CEO Akbar Al Baker said he did not plan to announce any airliner orders at Farnborough. So that means there is still no sign of the airline's long negotiated CSeries order. That other long-fizzling Middle East deal, from Gulf Air, was strangely absent at the recent air show in the airline's hometown of Bahrain.

Anyway, this year is a crunch one for Bombardier and the CSeries programme. It must complete assembly and roll out the prototype if it's to flight-test and certificate the PW1000G-powred twinjet as scheduled by the end of 2013. But when I last enquired with Bombardier, there was still no guidance offered for precise date of either the unveiling or the maiden flight.

2011 orders/firm backlog

CSeries*   48/138
E-Jet        104/249
A320neo   1,226/1,256
737 Max    150/250

*From 1 Feb 2011 to 19 Jan 2012/At 19 Jan 2012
Figures exclude MoUs, commitments etc


 

Things you didn't expect to see for sale onboard an aircraft #1

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Somewhere in the streets of Latvia there is Mini Cooper in AirBaltic colours driving around, bought onboard one of the airline's flights. The airline claimed a world first in December when it began selling cars onboard its flights and the first one has now hit the streets. Five more have since been sold.

 

airbaltic mini.jpgAir Baltic's VP corporate communications Janis Vanags was detailing this and some of the many other retail innovations the Latvian carrier has developed during the first Airline Business supported New Airline Commercial Models, Retailing and Merchandising conference in London.

Vanags passed round the audience one of the special Air Baltic-liveried trainers it is also now selling onboard - not sure if the driver of the Mini Cooper is also wearing the trainers.

airbaltic trainers.jpgSadly this is the only one of its shoe collection to have made it into production and to be available for sale - if you want to see just how surreal the rest of collection (including AirBaltic stilettos and ice skates by the look of it) check out this link.

Look out for more from the New Airline Commerical Models, Retailing and Merchandising conference today by following the Twitter hash tag #AirlineBusinessNCM  

Celebrating the Ground Gripper's big five-oh

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Half a century ago today at a small airfield north of London, de Havilland launched its best and final attempt to recover the lead it lost a decade earlier with the disastrous crashes of its pioneering Comet jet airliners.

trident 50th crew for web.jpgAt 12:14 on 9 January 1962 DH chief test pilot John Cunningham flew the first DH121 Trident G-ARPA off the runway at Hatfield for a 1h 21 min maiden flight. G-ARPA's control yoke, as well as a piece of its airframe that incorporates that historic registration, is preserved at the excellent Heathrow Trident Collection in Feltham, Middlesex (pictured below).

The little trijet, with its novel "S-duct" central engine installation, would go on to influence a generation of narrowbody and widebody three-holers, the most significant of which of course was Boeing's 727.

G-ARPA-2_Heathrow Trident Collection.JPGHistory now records that despite its innovations in configuration and technology (it pioneered Autoland systems), the Trident was a commercial flop. DH and successor Hawker Siddeley built just 117 Tridents while Boeing sold an eye-watering 1,831 727s. Why was it a flop? Because DH spent too much time listening to its launch customer - BEA - and tailored the design around that airline's requirements. This cardinal sin has ever since sat as a stark reminder to airframers about the perils of allowing one customer to have too much design influence.

But sales aside, the Trident always proved a huge hit with the pilots - most of who worked for BEA and successor British Airways which flew more than 70 of the trijets.

Three of them got together last Saturday at Farnborough's FAST museum to mark the 50th anniversary and to reminisce in the beautifully preserved cockpit of Trident 3B G-AWZI which is owned by Trident enthusiast Andrew Lee.

Capts Chris Wood, Dave Warren and John Rankin (pictured top, left to right) had between them more than three decades of Trident flying experience and fondly remember the "Gripper" - so called because of its less than sparkling take-off performance.

"The Trident was an awesome machine to fly," recalls Capt Rankin. "It was the best handling airliner I ever flew with superb control, agility and rock solid stability. Roll rates of 30o/s and smooth as silk right up to its Mach 0.96 max speed. The Boeings I've flown felt like the designer drove a Cadillac. The Trident felt like a finely tuned sports car."

So here's to Cunningham, ah de Havilland and the Trident - and what might have been...

Click below to read Flight International's report on the first flight:

 

trident-first-flight.jpg 

Word up: Tyler's change in tone at IATA

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IATA held its annual global media day yesterday in Geneva, its first under the leadership of former Cathay Pacific boss Tony Tyler. There has been a shfit in tone at IATA since long-time director general Giovanni Bisignani stepped down in the summer. Bisginani did much to transfrom IATA and in the process became known for "shouting politely" at governments, regulators and suppliers as he pressed airlines' case. But Tyler, evident in recent addresses to airports and regional airline bodies, is keen to stress the importance of co-operation.

"In the spirit of looking at the industry from a holistic perspective, you might have noticed that I have been emphasising the need for co-operation among industry players," he said in his opening address at the global media day. "I plan to keep up our good co-operation with the regional airline associations and to enhance our co-operation with those representing our partners in the value chain.

"This is not a new concept. Co-operation is behind the industry's superb record on safety and it is guiding our approach to climate change as well. I will certainly be a forceful advocate for airlines when that is needed - with our partners in the value chain and with governments."

You can read much more about the changing tone at IATA with this interview Airline Business did with the IATA director general during ALTA Airline Leaders forum last month. Read it here.

But for something less scientific, but a bit more colouful, judge the change in tone for yourself with these two word-clouds - one representing Tyler's speech to journalists yesterday and the other from Giovanni Bisignani to the same audience a year ago. Aptly enough, while co-operation may not be the biggest of the words, it is pretty much centre stage in Tyler's word-cloud - but absent (as far as I can tell) from the word-cloud of Bisignani's speech a year ago.

Tony Tyler speech: 7 December 2011

Tony Tyler wordle.pngGiovanni Bisignani speech: 14 December 2010

Bisignani wordle.png

 

Vanguard 50th: Brooklands' superb "Mudguard"

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The Brooklands Museum in Weybridge marked the 50th anniversary of its Vickers Vanguard on 3 December, with a reunion of the first and last Captains to fly the big turboprop.

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Capt Jack Randell (pictured, above left) was in the BEA crew that delivered G-APEP "Superb" on the short hop from Vickers' Wisley airfield to the airline's "London Airport" (Heathrow) base on 13 December 1961 (see extract from Jack's log book, below). Thirty-five years later, after sterling service in the passenger role and later as a freighter with BEA, British Airways, Air Bridge Carriers and Hunting Cargo Airlines, Echo Papa was flown into its Brooklands birthplace by Capts Gary West (above right) and Peter Moore.

jack Randell log book.jpg

On 17 October 1996, West and Moore - who sadly passed away last year - positioned Echo Papa from Hunting Cargo's East Midlands base for a spectacular arrival on the remains of Brooklands' runway, which only had 600m (1,970ft) landing distance available. This was the last flight of a Vanguard anywhere in the world.

vanguard-g-apep.jpg

 Flight S&L-Oct 1996.jpg

Reminiscing at the Brooklands reunion with fellow ex-Vanguard pilots about that impressive final landing, West joked: "We'd practised at East Midlands with the landing distance marked on the runway, but it still looked awfully short as we flew down the approach to Brooklands!" 
However it all went to plan and the aircraft was easily stopped in the distance available. "We were very light so we touched down at less than 100kt," added West.

Read the 1996 article from Flight International (above) about the Brooklands arrival here, and our jump-seat ride to Brussels in the last Vanguard  here.

For information on how you can visit Echo Papa and the museum's extensive collection of aircraft (including Concorde G-BBDG) and motor vehicles, go to Brooklandsmuseum.com


 

Timeline: A decade of North American airline restructuring

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American Airlines move to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection yesterday ended the Oneworld carrier, and its chief executive Gerard Arpey's, lengthy resistance to following its peers into restructuring under Chapter 11. American was the last man standing among US majors after a tumultuous decade for North American carriers, which has a string of operators restructure through Chapter 11 or the Canadian equivalent - here's quick graphic timeline of the North American carrier restructuring story of the last decade:

 

Read much more on American Airlines and its Chapter 11 restructuring challenges here

Ryanair taught a valuable lesson?

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Ryanair has used a cartoon image of Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi on its Italian website to promote its services.

The cartoon Berlusconi is picture clutching a copy of Ryanair's 2012 calendar featuring a picture of some of its air hostesses wearing bikinis with the message: "Dear Silvio, another chance to escape with Ryanair".

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Ryanair is well aware of the value of using the image of European statesmen to endorse its products. The airline was reported to have profited enormously from the publicity it gained after being taken to court by Nicolas Sarkozy and his wife Carla Bruni after it featured a picture of the couple prior to their wedding.

Ryanair was ordered to pay €60,000 by a court in Paris after it found that the airline unlawfully used a photograph of the couple with a caption next to Bruni's head reading "With Ryanair, my whole family can come to my wedding." However the resulting publicity after the story was picked up by newspapers across Europe was estimated to be of far greater value than the damages.

BA goes down memory lane with new cargo weight-lifter

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British Airways World Cargo has just taken delivery - through cargo wet-lease specialist Atlas Air - of its first Boeing 747-8F freighter.

Based at London Stansted, the 747-8F is due to enter service on Tuesday (8 November).

British Airways Boeing 747-8F

Unlike the 747-400Fs Atlas has previously operated on wet-lease for BA, this aircraft is in the airline's full "Union Flag" colour scheme - and looks fabulous. (The purists will point out that one Atlas 747-400F did briefly appear in BA colours, but this was the Utopia scheme with the "Chelsea Rose" tail colours.)

The red, white and blue 747-8F brings back memories of the airline's brief dalliance with the 747 freighter variant in the early 1980s. BA took delivery of a single 747-200F "G-KILO" (pictured below by Kevin Colbran/Air Britain) from Seattle, which was named "British Trader".

BA Cargo Boeing 747-200F G-KILO copywrght Kevin Colbran Air Britain

In those days things were slightly different at BA's cargo division though. G-KILO was integrated into the airline's large 747-100/200 passenger fleet, and the flightcrews expected a seamless service whether they were flying freight or "self-loading cargo" (ie passengers). So each cargo flight operated with a stewardess on board to ensure the flightdeck team had the service they were used to on the passenger flights - coffees, teas, meals and that legendary cheese board!

So perhaps it was no wonder that the economics of BA's single 747-200F operation didn't work out, and the aircraft was disposed of fairly pronto to Cathay Pacific?

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