November 2011 Archives

The F-35 is the last manned fighter aircraft. Unmanned air systems (UAS) will take over all the missions currently performed by manned platforms.

 

These assertions are frequently heard from people that are supposed to know. But if you look at what happens in "the field", things look different.

 

In Israel, a world power in UAS, these assertions became almost a scientifically based fact, but in recent months I have heard some new undertones.

 

The best example of the change is the Israeli plan to replace its maritime patrol aircraft with the Heron-1 (Shoval) UAS.

 

The early stages of operation showed that this is a very good system, but it has clear limits.

 

"The trend that was based on the slogan "If it is not a UAS I'm not buying" is losing its glamour," said an Israeli aerospace industry source.

 

He explained that UAS in a maritime patrol mission is very good at close or medium ranges. However, when it comes to long-range missions the manned aircraft has the upper hand, and not by a small margin but "big time".

 

This does not mean that UAS for maritime patrols will not be developed and sold, but unlike previous predictions, they will not eliminate the need for manned maritime platforms.

 

The same principal applies for airborne early warning (AEW) platforms. Here too the UAS cannot replace manned platforms.

 

UAS fly with intelligence-gathering sensors, but a full capability AEW/SIGINT platform must be at least the size of a medium business jet (G-550), in spite of the achievements in miniaturisation.

 

So UAS are here to stay and will take over many missions, but it's too early to

think of shelving all military manned platforms.

This problem is unique and characterises the fast-shifting situation in the Middle East.

 

The unstable situation in Egypt is a cause of great concern to Israel. Since the peace treaty between the two countries was signed in 1979, the Israeli defence forces (IDF) have considered Egypt not as a friendly country, but rather as a "cold friend" that poses no threat.

 

This situation ended when President Hosni Mubarak was ousted. If there was hope that some sort of steady regime will replace the one that ended its historic role, it has faded. Even the elections that started yesterday in Egypt are not relaxing the tension.

 

Egypt has a huge army, including a modern air force. The problem Israel faces is how to monitor and detect any signs of hostility without breaching the sovereignty of Egypt.

 

The situation is even more complicated because the Sinai Desert has become a haven for extreme Islamic organisations.

 

So Israel is using all its standoff intelligence-gathering resources to monitor the situation. Spy satellites, oblique photography and optical payloads on tethered balloons are doing the monitoring job.

 

The fact that the Sinai Desert became the "wild south", with no real control by the Egyptian armed forces, causes some other concerns that require the attention of Israel.

 

One result - the C-Music system developed by Elbit Systems to protect Israeli airliners from shoulder-launched missiles - will also be installed on aircraft that fly from central Israel to Eilat, the Israeli resort on the Red Sea.

 

The route is in close proximity to the border and the Sinai is full of well-armed terrorists.

 

Updated intelligence points to the fact that a great number of shoulder-launched missiles, most of them from Libyan army depots that were looted during the upheaval, found their way to the Sinai.

 

So Israel, actually its airforce, now has a new task - how to see what is happening across the border, using only the keyhole without opening the door.

The price Israel pays for receiving an annual defence grant from the US is getting higher.

 

The grant involves buying only US-made weapon systems, so most of the money goes back to the US. At the same time there are many "strings attached", and these are made of premium steel.

 

From time to time, Israel gets a reminder of the price it pays. Not everyone is happy with the fact, and this is a major understatement.

 

The defence ties between South Korea and Israel are very good. In recent years, the Asian country has purchased some Israeli-made military systems worth around $300m, and its aerospace industry is competing, with the T-50, to become the Israeli air force's advanced trainer.

 

However, last week another reminder was bluntly put in Israel's face.

 

The South Korean air force plans to upgrade the radar systems of its F-16s.

Not surprisingly, South Korea issued the request for proposals (RFP) only to Northrop Grumman for its scalable agile beam radar (SABR) and to Raytheon for the company's advanced combat radar (RACR).

 

In December 2010, I reported that the Israeli ministry of defence does not approve the export of the Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) EL/M-2052 AESA radar to a number of countries.

 

The ministry has imposed those restrictions as a result of heavy pressure from the US administration.

 

The administration's opposition is not formal, but was "explained" to Israel a few times in the past two years.

 

Sources say that it is based on the assumption that the export of this very advanced radar will undermine the sale of US-made radars to different countries.

 

Israeli sources say that the US does not "like" to allow foreign countries to install main systems such as radar in a US-made fighter jet. This may be so and is so in the case of the F-35, but when an F-16 is involved this reason seems a little shaky.

 

The EL/M-2052 has been developed by Elta, the IAI subsidiary. It uses an array of transmit/receive solid-state modules designed to dynamically shape the radiation pattern using an ultra-low side-lobe antenna.

 

The radar supports pulse doppler and two axes monopulse guard channels, providing all-aspect, look-down, shoot-down performance, operating simultaneous multi-mode air-to-air superiority and advanced strike missions.

 

The radar is based on solid-state, active phase array technology, enabling the radar to achieve a longer detection range, high mission reliability and a multi-target tracking capability of up to 64 targets.

 

It can also support high-resolution target identification and separation, performing raid assessment at long range, as well as surface moving target detection and ranging. In the anti-shipping role the new radar provides long-range target detection, classification and tracking.

 

With high peak power the radar supports simultaneous multi-mode operation. It can detect targets at very long range while tracking up to 64 targets, and simultaneously engage several targets with missiles.

 

In ground attack missions the radar supports mapping, navigation and high resolution imagery (SAR), supported with Real Beam Map (RBM) and Doppler Beam Sharpening (DBS) modes.

 

The EL/M-2052 is designed as a modular system, with built-in growth capability, computation and memory reserves. Its weighs about 130-180kg and consumes 4-10KVA, depending on the design configuration.

 

Frustration and many unanswered questions follow the slamming of the door in the face of one of the best fighter radar manufacturers.

 

Will Israel try to change the situation? I hope so. Will it change? Hope is a good feeling.　

Will the defence budget problems extend the life of some aircraft in the Israeli air force (IAF) inventory? This question becomes more and more acute, as the budget problems are heavier than ever before.

 

Two types are in focus - the F-15s and the A-4s. The repeated delays in the delivery dates of the 20 Lockheed Martin F-35s to the IAF are causing concern and a thought about extending the life of the F-15Is, and maybe some older ones.

 

There is even talk about buying some additional ones with the improved capabilities. Gap filler, extra capability. The name is not important. When the threats do not correspond to the budget, different solutions are brought up.

 

The other aircraft in focus is the A-4, serving as the advanced trainer of the IAF. The decision about the replacement is on indefinite hold.

 

As if to complicate things, following the crash of one of the final contenders, the IAF wants to learn what happened before a selection is on the agenda.

 

The IAF has asked Aermacchi to get the full report on the crash of the M-346 into the sea after participating in the Dubai air show last week.

 

The M-346 is one of the two finalists in the competition aimed at selecting an advanced trainer for the IAF. It competes with the KAI T-50.

 

The final selection has been delayed because of the Israeli defence budget problems. Sources said that the current situation may lead to a decision not to select a replacement for the IAF's A-4s until the defence budget allows it.

 

The uncertainties of the defence budget, mixed with some uncertainties of delivery dates and with some more related to near-term operational needs, have put a huge question mark over some acquisition programmes that until recently looked solid.

The situation changes fast. The US is beginning to understand that the Middle East will not be the same and that the new threats are bigger than ever, not only to allies such as Israel, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, but to its direct interests in the region.

 

The threat picture has changed dramatically and is more complex. This accumulative threat is the background for supposedly another routine military exercise scheduled for next year. But this is supposedly with a capital S.

 

If I may make an assessment based not only on common sense, the joint US-Israeli military exercise will be one of many.

 

The first such joint exercise will be held next May, and will focus on the defence of Israel from long-range ballistic missiles. It will involve thousands of soldiers and many advanced systems.

 

The exercise will begin after the US deploys its Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (Thaad) and Aegis systems in Israel and the Mediterranean, and Israeli Arrow-2 ballistic missile interceptors and Iron Dome rocket interceptors are also deployed.

 

The exercise will involve the networking of the different systems and a prioritisation intercept process according to the threat.

 

The exercise, according to Israeli sources, was planned before the current talk about an Israeli operation against the Iranian nuclear programme began.

 

This is a fact, but there is no doubt that the fast-evolving threat from Iran is and will be in the air when the American and Israeli commanders begin to inject missions and targets into the system that is the skeleton of the joint exercise next May.

The fast-changing situation in the world affects the export of advanced weapon systems, mainly by the US. The shockwaves then begin to hit far-away countries.

Old friends are no longer so close. New friends emerge from surprising places and situations.

Add to this the fact that the US is wrapping up the fighting in Iraq, and you get a totally new world market for advanced weapon systems. The segment that will experience the main changes is the one that is related to unmanned air systems (UAS).

If, so far, Washington has refrained from using its "marketing skills" to sell the different UAS to some countries, this is changing very fast. The US is no longer indifferent to the sale of UAS by countries such as Israel to customers such as India and South Korea. More than that - it even angers some officials working in the Pentagon.

The forecast shared by people close to the industry in Israel is that Washington will approve the sale of advanced UAS to some countries that so far were almost captive potential customers of the Israeli manufacturers.

This is of course a cause for concern, and a trigger for creating joint ventures with companies in the US. This in an effort to cause at least part of the acquisition budgets to find their way to Israel.

The US has been very strict about selling long-range platforms to some countries, but that is also changing in the form of "tailored" versions that are in compliance with the regulations of the missile technology control regime (MTCR), which has been modified to include long-endurance/long-range UAS.

So the competition for new clients is getting to a new peak, with the US taking part in each race for a contract.

Changing world, changing markets, new joint ventures, a new world, or history repeating itself?

Something is very wrong with the system that supplies fuel to the aircraft using Ben Gurion international airport near Tel Aviv.

 

On 20 November, water was detected in the system and the supply to the airport's fuel tanks farm was cut. Flights continued with fuel that was already in the tanks.

 

This incident happened seven months after the airport's operation was disrupted by fuel contamination.

 

The fuel contamination caused the immediate stoppage of refuelling. Airlines were instructed to refuel at airports in Cyprus and Jordan.

 

Refuelling was resumed after a few days when it became clear that the refuelling system in the airport was clean.

 

An investigation into the jet fuel contamination showed that the source of the unidentified substance was outside the airport. The IATA conducted an independent investigation but could not reach a conclusive result.

 

The fact that a similar problem happened after steps were supposed to have been taken to avoid it proves that if something was done, it was not enough.

 

Israel has one international airport and the fuel supply should not be interrupted by suspicious substances or above normal traces of water.

 

Yesterday, the Israeli airport authority issued a NOTAM saying the additional tests proved that the fuel is safe for use.

 

But one thing is obvious - something is wrong with the system that supplies the fuel from the refineries to the aircraft.

 

Airlines cannot be caught again and again in situations of uncertainty that may force them to fly with extra fuel in the tanks of their aircraft, or land for refuelling in neighbouring countries.

 

All parties involved agree that a complete upgrade of the system and the building of a back-up system is an urgent task.

 

Israel, as a leading unmanned air systems (UAS) developer, with 40 years of operational experience, is in a good position to start looking at using the craft for moving cargo.

The country is undertaking early feasibility studies into making the concept a reality.

The talk is vague but when you start asking questions, you quickly learn that it includes such specifics as numbers, weights and ranges that would be involved.

Nothing will happen until UAS are allowed to fly in civil airspaces like manned aircraft. The process has been going on for years, but very slowly. The experts say that the obstacles are only psychological. Technically, they say they are ready to board a UAS and cross the Atlantic.

But there are hints that UAS that will be capable of carrying "many tons" of cargo over long distances. This will make the transfer cheaper, and that alone is an incentive to developers.

The technology is here, the need is here, the human imagination is here. Nothing can beat such a combination. It will take time, but cargo will be flown by very advanced robots and this will certainly be a small step on the way to developing unmanned passenger aircraft.

Frankfurt airport, June 2013. Two widebody passenger aircraft are pushed back from the terminal, engines off. They are still off when they cross the apron on their way to the taxiway. Other aircraft are moving in the area, passing very close to each other.

The scene is like one from a science fiction movie - but this may soon be reality, as the TaxiBot unmanned pushback/towing tractor starts work at main airports .

Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and Airbus are preparing a marketing plan for their TaxiBot pushback/towing tractor. This - in preparation for massive demonstrations for potential customers - is to begin next year.

Lufthansa and Airbus have defined the operational features of the TaxiBot, which is based on technology patented by IAI.

The system is designed to eliminate the need to operate the aircraft's engines after pushback. The design is based on letting TaxiBot tow the aircraft after pushback until the take-off starting point.

The special design of TaxiBot gives the pilot full control of the system during the taxiing process, using the same aircraft controls the pilot is accustomed to when taxiing using the aircraft's engines. 

IAI said use of the TaxiBot system requires no modifications to the aircraft, and minimal changes to the airport infrastructure, which will not affect existing taxiways and runways. 

A source related to the programme said marketing will initially focus on Europe and the USA.

He added that tests had proved using TaxiBot reduces the use of fuel during taxiing, lowers air pollution in the terminal area and reduces the hazard of foreign object damage to the aircraft's engines.

The source added that the second phase of the programme will focus on using a communications network that will allow a control centre to operate all the TaxiBots operating at an airport, even in poor ground visibility conditions, aiming to shorten the distances between the aircraft on the way to and from runways.

Elbit Systems is conceived as a leading manufacturer of avionic systems and unmanned air systems (UAS) as its two leading lines.

 

But the Israeli company, with its vast international cooperation network, is also an advanced developer and manufacturer of very advanced precision weapon systems.

 

The growing need for such systems in today's war scenarios spurred Elbit Systems to use all its know-how to supply those smart weapons.

 

The fact that the Israeli company is the sole supplier of the laser seeker that is part of the Laser JDAM used by the US Navy is only one that is the background for the accelerated effort.

 

The laser JDAM is a Boeing product and Elbit Systems was selected to supply the special laser sensor.

 

Elbit Systems is currently developing the guided advanced tactical rocket (GATR) in a joint programme with ATK.

 

The GATR will replace the Hellfire missile. Sources close to the programme say that the new system will cost less and will better answer the operational requirements of the asymmetric warfare currently fought around the world.

 

The GATR will be easily fitted to combat helicopters that are currently armed with the Hellfire missile.

 

The company says that it will have an effective range of 8km and, with the laser guidance, will ensure very precise hits.

 

The guideline in developing the GATR is embedded in other programmes that involve the development of advanced weapon systems. This guideline is to minimise collateral damage.

 

To go along this guideline, the Israeli company has mobilised all its know-how in the field of military optics as a general term.

 

A visit to the laboratories of the Elop division of Elbit Systems is sufficient to learn that it succeeded in its aim to "make them small and robust" .

 

The results will emerge slowly as the Israeli defence establishment will allow the company to export more such weapon systems.

Heavy, long-endurance unmanned air systems (UAS) and manned aircraft that are converted to fly without a human pilot are being cleared for export by the Israeli ministry of defence only if they comply with the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) limitations.

 

Until a few years ago, this was not a real problem but as UAS developed in Israel, became heavier and capable of a longer endurance, the problem turned into a serious one.

 

To add to the complexity, a number of Israeli companies have developed unmanned versions of manned aircraft. This is a very interesting, much-debated shortcut to large UAS. The first such converted system developed by Aeronautics is the Dominator-2.

 

The aim of the MTCR is to restrict the proliferation of missiles, complete rocket systems, unmanned air systems, and related technology, for those systems capable of carrying a 500kg payload to a range of 300km, as well as systems intended for the delivery of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

 

Israel is not part of the MTCR regime but decided to comply, in order not to enrage the US. According to an "urban legend", there are senior officials in Washington that do not like the fact that Israel enjoys a generous annual defence grant from the US, and at the same time has developed a very successful defence and aerospace industry.

 

The Dominator-2 (XP in its export version) is based on the Diamond DA-42 twin-engine aircraft.

 

It has an endurance of 28 hours and is capable of carrying a 300kg payload. Its max takeoff weight is 2,000kg.

 

The second time Israel had to comply with the regime was when France selected the Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) Heron-TP UAS. Dassault is the local partner for the deal, but the system is Israeli.

 

In the coming years, the special body that approves the export of such UAS will have to meet more frequently.

Fluctuation is the most stable situation in the Middle East. This is proved again and again along a time axis.

 

The most recent proof is the talk about a "gap filler" that will enable the Israeli air force (IAF) to keep its full operational capability if the purchased Lockheed Martin F-35s land at an IAF base in 2016 or even 2017.

 

The delays in the F-35 programme were not fully taken into account when the Israeli government approved the $2.75bn for 20 F-35s.

 

But as time passes, questions are being launched into the air, in most cases by "sources" that do not want to be identified.

 

These sources say that there is no way of knowing what the operational need will be in 2016 or later, when the deliveries of the F-35s will hopefully begin.

 

Does Israel need a stealth fighter with a $137m price tag attached to its wings? The answer, according to many experts, is negative. They say that the current fleet of fighters operated by the IAF can, with the right EW systems, achieve the same element of surprise. But that was the mantra when the delivery dates were assessed at 2015.

 

Each time the dates are pushed into the more distant future, other voices are heard.

These say that the IAF will need a gap filler in the shape of an aircraft like the upgraded F-15 or in the shape of very capable unmanned air systems (UAS).

 

With long-endurance, heavy UAS such as the Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) Heron-TP, and probably others still hidden behind curtains of secrecy, this option is based on existing hardware.

 

The unprecedented pressures on the Israeli defence budget amplify these voices.

But in a region in which things change in the velocity of advanced fighter jets, what seems logical today may seem the most stupid thing tomorrow.