June 2012 Archives

On my blog I have mentioned more than once that the Israeli space industry needs "miracles" to survive, because the state does very little to preserve and upgrade it.

Such a "miracle" came to pass this week, when Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) was selected to build Amos 6 - Israel's new communication satellite.

Amos 6 is expected to replace the Amos 2 satellite in the 4 West orbital slot.

The contract being granted to IAI is even more meaningful after the contract to build Amos 5 went to a Russian company.

The Amos 6 contract comes at a very crucial moment for the Israeli space industry - one of great achievements with very limited budgets.

Israel has become a member of the "space club" - mainly because it needed capabilities in space that could not be purchased outside its boundaries.

Even the USA, Israel's big ally, limited the space capabilities it made available to Israel.

Hundreds of millions of dollars was invested in the capabilities of Israel's spy satellites. The result - Israel has an array of very advanced spy satellites, and is developing more advanced ones.

But one factor was not taken into account - Israeli satellites last longer than expected, and that slowed down the pace of new manufacturing.

This caused "covert unemployment" in the main facilities that develop and make satellites.

The engineers and technicians, mainly at the space division of IAI, find themselves working in a very frustrating atmosphere.

This new contract will allow IAI and other Israeli space-related industries to function at a reasonable level and be a little more relaxed as the government looks to make the right decisions about the industry.

It seems that Israeli unmanned air systems (UAS) will keep their monopoly in the Swiss skies.

The Swiss armed forces have been operating the Ranger UAS - built by RUAG, based on the design of the Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) Scout UAS.

The Ranger entered service in the 1980s, and now the Swiss want an advanced system.

It is only natural that the two final competitors are Israeli. The Swiss ministry of defence is expected to select a MALE (medium-altitude long-endurance) UAS before the end of the year.

The two systems left in the competition are the Elbit Systems Hermes 900 and the IAI Heron-1.

The two systems were demonstrated to Swiss officials in Israel, and some more flights are planned to take place in different regions in Switzerland.

Detailed proposals are expected to be submitted by August. This will be followed by at least six more months of evaluation. The two Israeli-made UAS are capable of carrying multiple-purpose payloads.

I'm sure that the Swiss will demand the transfer of technology as part of their final selection.

In this case it will not be a problem.

Israel can only dream that the potential clients for Israeli-made advanced weapon systems will be countries like Switzerland.

However, this is not the case, and that forces the Israeli ministry of defence to use different juggling skills to keep everybody happy.

In this case no such skills will be needed.
 

The rapid increase in the number of autonomous combat systems in the air, at sea and on the ground creates a problem.

This problem is huge when humans are involved - but it is even larger in scale when fully autonomous combat systems are involved.

Different experts use different definitions, but in essence the problem is very simple to define - should all these autonomous combat systems talk to each other?

Should they be given the autonomy to initiate armed attacks on an enemy?

These are not only technical questions, but also touch that very delicate issue‫ ‬of ethics.

With an array of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) with a wide range of capabilities, with advanced types of unmanned ground systems and such systems that are used at sea, the operational questions have started to be asked in different levels in Israel.

While some say that a combined unmanned operational scenario is around the corner, others say that it will have to wait until some uncertainties are resolved.

With micro, mini, medium-sized and huge UAS operational, with at least two types of unmanned boats and with one very advanced autonomous ground system along some of the Israeli borders, the question is very real.

In the next few months forums in Israel will deal with this question.
Some will do it in public. Others in sound-proofed rooms.

I don't expect these discussions to result in clear-cut answers, but the process has begun.

Depth Command, Near Space - the Israeli air force (IAF) is beginning to think differently.

 

The operational problem is simple to define, but not to solve. Israel is threatened by countries on its borders such as Syria and Lebanon, and also by countries that are far away, such as Iran.

 

This calls for a new operational approach, not only on the defensive side in the form of, for example, the Arrow anti-ballistic missile system, but also on the offensive side.

 

The change happens slowly as it involves not only operational decisions, but also high-end technologies, but it happens.

 

In recent weeks a special think tank that included former IAF commanders and experts now in service recommended an increase in investments in the Near Space.

 

The recommendation is to explore the use of the Near Space, in altitudes from 100,000-150,000ft.

 

The board was formed to outline the IAF recommended development lines in 2030 so that the capabilities will cover all the forecasted needs.

 

The recommendations will probably result in the development of systems that can function at high altitudes, mainly aerostats but definitely not only.

 

These recommendations come shortly after the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) established a new Depth Command headed by a general, to coordinate what is defined loosely as "long-range operations".

 

It is obvious that such a command will need the means to deploy the units covertly in faraway destinations.

 

When the media in Israel dubbed the new command "the Iranian command", it may have exaggerated a little but it helped to see the rationale.

 

How will these decisions affect the structure of the IAF's "wish list"? It is early to say, but there will be an effect.

Electronic or human intelligence? This question is currently being asked every day in Israeli intelligence organisations.

 

Is the huge investment in mostly aerial sensors justified? Are these tools really supplying the data that is needed?

 

In the past two or three years, the intelligence organisations in the Middle East and in the USA failed to forecast the uprising in Egypt.

 

They claim, in their defence, that a popular uprising such as this is very hard to foresee. Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain and Libya are only part of this failure.

 

Nothing on the screens of the intelligence experts gave any indication. However, while the intelligence organisations try to find an explanation, the developments do not stop and they are very worrying, and not only to democracies in the region.

 

While the USA is continuing to demonstrate its impotency to act on international situations that will no question affect its interests, the real worry is in Jerusalem.

 

While Iran is not openly involved in what is happening in Egypt, it is deeply involved in what is happening in Lebanon and Syria.

 

So, Israel has an array of spy satellites, it has squadrons of ELINT aircraft and it has other sensors in a variety of ranges.

 

All these failed. The question is again - can a country rely on sensors, even if they are the most sophisticated ones?

 

Talking to the experts, an answer is beginning to formulate and the direction is clear - a big NO.

 

Even the best sensors are worthless in forecasting events that change the basic situation.

 

Will that shift budgets to alternative methods of intelligence gathering? I doubt it very much.

 

Heads of states like to see very expensive toys that give them the feeling that the budgets they have approved were spent in the right way.

 

However, the results are far from sufficient and, as these lines are being written, many minds are working overtime to solve the huge problem.

 

Dangers in the Middle East continue to loom and they threaten not only Israel.

 

Take a world map and you will see that the consequences may reach far beyond the lines that define the Middle East.

In the past, "Skunk Works" was connected to the design of secret, very advanced fighter aircraft by Lockheed Martin. The SR-71, F-22 and others were designed in these secret laboratories before they reached the open assembly lines. These days "Skunk Works" - at least in Israel - is mostly connected to new generations of unmanned aerial systems (UAS)

Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) unveiled the prototype of its "Butterfly" UAS at the first day of the AUVSI conference in Tel-Aviv.

The miniature UAS imitates the motions of a butterfly's wings. It is 20cm long and weighs 12 grams. It flies by flapping its four wings.

The prototype is part of an overall effort to develop covert miniature UAS for special forces. IAI plans to offer a line of miniature UAS equipped with different payloads.

But that is just the tip of the iceberg. We can assume that after 40 years of operational use of different types of UAS in Israel, the industry will on one hand continue to develop the "normal" types in different variations, and at the same time look to "exotic" designs. The Butterfly is only one example - and probably not the most advanced one.

What are the aims of this classified effort? Again, only assumptions can be used here - so, I will use them. Very long endurance, stealth and "combined operations", where the UAS will function in "herds".

As for the systems developed by "Skunk Works", we will see them in the open years from now, maybe.

Some will be kept under wraps for a long, long time, until they are needed to perform a special mission.

How will the introduction into service of the Boeing 787 affect the conversion market?

 

While many question marks still remain, related to the world economic situation, preparations are being made.

 

The Bedek Group of Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) is a leading conversion centre, and as such the "next big thing" should be clear in its long-term planning.

 

So, after completing feasibility studies on the conversion of the Boeing 777, and based on the results, the Bedek Group decided that this is the next conversion line.

 

Currently, the main conversion lines at Bedek are the Boeing 747-400 and the Boeing 767-200/300.

 

In 2012, the Bedek Group has a forecast for the conversion of more than 20 767s and 747s in its facilities at Ben Gurion international airport.

 

Some Boeing 737s are being converted at the Gameco conversion site in China, under the Bedek STC and supervision.

 

The basic assumption of the Bedek Group is that the entry into service of the Boeing 787, and later of the Airbus A350, will bring many 777s into the market.

 

The group is making all the necessary preparations to be ready for the demand if all the forecasts materialise.

Sitting duck, easy target, bull's-eye. The same idea with many names and one unifying fact - helicopters have become easy prey for any soldier with a vintage anti-tank rocket .

While fixed-wing aircraft, tanks and armoured personnel carriers (APCs) are being defended by active and reactive systems, the helicopter is in most cases "naked".

The Israeli air force (IAF) faced this problem in the wars in Lebanon and Gaza. These resulted in efforts to develop an efficient defensive system - but it is not simple, to put it mildly. The efforts continue, but most of them are classified.

Recently Rafael has unveiled some of the work it has done to develop an active protection system for helicopters. According to the company, a recent ground test proved that the proposed solution can become a very efficient protection system for helicopters.

Dubbed "Flicker", the system works similar to the company's Trophy system - developed to defend tanks and APCs  from rockets and shells. This system is operational on the Israeli defence forces' (IDF) Merkava Mk4 main battle tank.

The Trophy creates a hemispheric protected zone around the vehicle where incoming threats are intercepted and defeated. When a threat is detected, identified and verified the system launches the classified interceptor and it deflects and destabilises the rocket or shell so that it does not hit its target.

While the IAF's helicopters are using electronic warfare systems against missiles, there is a need to protect them against weapons like RPGs. These have downed many helicopters in Iraq, Somalia and Afghanistan.

Unlike the Trophy, "Flicker" is designed to launch a special projectile that will defeat the incoming threat.

Rafael intends to use integral aircraft sensors to save weight.

"Flicker" will use a special interceptor warhead. In a recent test the warhead proved that its shreds caused minor hits on the ground target depicting an helicopter. But the more important result? "Flicker's" interceptor hit the warhead of the RPG and exploded it.

The effort now is to downsize the system's building blocks and pack them in a way that will be
applicable for installation on a helicopter.

How long will it be before the system can be installed on a helicopter? The people involved are not saying.

One fact is clear - the effort to protect helicopters from kinetic threats is gaining momentum.

"Unified combat", "net-centric warfare" - the name is not important. The changing needs of modern air combat require that almost all types of aircraft operated by an air force will "play" like a well-practiced orchestra.

The Israeli air force (IAF) has indentified this need, and is preparing itself to answer it.

The IAF has recently awarded a contract to Elbit Systems to integrate the F-15 array into the Mission Training Center (MTC) that the company is building at one of its bases.

Elbit was previously awarded a contract by the Israeli Ministry of Defence to establish the F-16 training center for the IAF through a private finance initiative programme.

The new follow-on contract for the integration of the F-15 array will enable the IAF fighter aircraft array to perform joint mission training in operational flights and formations, as well as joint training with other armed forces.

This is also part of the development, as in recent years the world's governments have been forced more than once to form military coalitions to handle "dangerous situations".

According to Elbit the MTC marks a significant breakthrough in the operational training sector, as it enables training in various mission scenarios in varying warzones - and in the relevant threat environment of each warzone, providing a new training capability which has not yet been available to the IAF.

The IAF teams will be able to train in different formations under the full supervision of flight inspectors, who will take a central part in the training sessions.

The system will enable integration with other training systems operated by the Israel Defence Forces, such as trainers for helicopter pilots, unmanned aerial system operators and ground forces. In addition, the new system will enable coordinated training of operational scenarios, even when the trainees are geographically distant from one another.

New ways of fighting, new tools for training.

This technology makes it easier to combine them.

When the defence budget is strained to its limits and beyond, only thinking out of the box may help.

 

This happens now in Israel, where operational needs are increasing by the month, and the budget does not match the pace of new requirements.

 

In recent months the ministry of defence has begun looking for ways to answer all the needs, or the most urgent ones, by using methods that until now looked unacceptable in that context.

 

It will not be easy to change the way things have been done for decades but need is the mother of invention and this is a classic situation in which needs cannot be met by only using the good old methods.

 

This is why I was not surprised to learn that Boeing is evaluating "novel" methods that will enable the Israeli air force (IAF) to introduce the CH-47 into its inventory.

 

The evaluation is based on the assumption that the budget limits will not allow the IAF to make a direct purchase of the CH-47 in the coming years.

 

Sources said that a few ideas are being evaluated, among them a private finance initiative (PFI) deal in which a third party will purchase the helicopter and supply flight hours.

  

So far, the unwritten rule was to use a PFI only for trainers, but the heavy budget restrictions may change that.

 

As reported by Flight, Boeing is offering its CH-47 Chinook helicopter to the IAF.

The US manufacturer has told the IAF that the CH-47G is the best available replacement for its CH-53s, which have been undergoing continuous upgrades.

 

The IAF's original plan was to operate its CH-53s until it could acquire the new Sikorsky CH-53K, now under development.

 

The Sikorsky CH-53 (Yasur) 2025 upgrade includes the installation of 20 new systems, among them a very advanced EW system and a satcom system that expand the CH-53's operational capability.

 

The Boeing offer is defined as a "capability presentation". At this stage the IAF does not have the budget for any CH-53 replacement.

The growing competition in unmanned air systems (UAS) has resulted in more alliances between manufacturers, and between them and strategic partners.

 

What happened in the airline business, which is currently dominated by big alliances, happens now on a smaller scale in the UAS market.

 

We can see an example of this trend in Canada, where the Dominator XP UAS made by Aeronautics from Israel is now being certificated to fly in Canadian airspace.

 

However, certification is only part of the picture. It is part of a strategic teaming agreement signed last year between Aeronautics and CAE.

 

The agreement was initially meant to develop a simulation and mission training solution for the Dominator XP.

 

Avi Leumi, president of Aeronautics, said that the agreement actually created a joint team that will promote the sale of the Dominator XP to civil and military clients.

 

The Dominator XP was adapted to comply with the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) limitations.

 

The Dominator XP is based on the Diamond DA-42 twin-engined aircraft. It can achieve an endurance of 28 hours and is capable of carrying a 300kg payload. Its maximum take-off weight is 2,000kg.

 

Maximum altitude is 30,000 feet and maximum speed is 190 knots. The Dominator is aimed at the high end of the medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) UAS market.

 

So the time for alliances and strategic partnerships in the UAS business has come and at least a few more are in the making as these lines are being written.