J-20 blues: no first flight today, apparently

Been glued to Twitter and Chinese web sites all afternoon for news of the J-20's first flight.

Now, however, I'm getting tweets that the VIPs who assembled for a function at the Chengdu factory are heading back, with no sign of the new aircraft taking off. Not entirely surprised: the Chinese calendar today says it is a horrible day for new ventures - although I'm not sure if celestial affairs apply to communists (or socialists who practice capitalism).  

In any case, the way the J-20 news emerged, through plane spotters' postings on the Internet, could suggest that China is trying to become more open about things military.

China's current frontline fighter, the J-10, was a state secret until well after the aircraft was deployed. China only made the aircraft public in 2006, years after its first flight. If anyone can keep a secret, it's China. This week's J-20-fest wasn't an accident.

There are two possible reasons for the easy access the world is getting to the J-20. Either A) the country is trying to be more open, or B) they are trying to send a message.

For my part I'm inclined to option B. Openness is not about showing what kit you have, but telling people what your plans are, offering reassurance about your intentions, and generally being a considerate neighbour. China's tough talk on the South China Sea last year, continued support of North Korea, and clashes with Japan over disputed islands all leave little room for comfort.

 Anyway, the debuts of the J-10 and J-20 (if such this new aircraft really is) offer a fascinating and somewhat perplexing contrast. I look forward to plenty of debate in the coming weeks with my colleagues at Flight and friends in the defence industry about why China chose to reveal the J-20 this way - and, with luck, a first flight.