April 2011 Archives

The implications of a bust up between China and Taiwan are almost too harrowing to contemplate, especially if the United States and Japan were drawn in. The world's inter-connected economy would collapse as the world entered the great unknown. The human toll could be horrendous.

Nonetheless, China is dead serious about getting Taiwan back, and force will remain very much on the table. A recent Rand Corporation report ('Shaking the Heavens and Splitting the Earth') does a good job of discussing how the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) would go about conducting itself in war for Taiwan. Including the index the report is an intimidating 308 pages long. The most interesting section by far is chapter 10: "Possible PLAAF Operational Concepts, Capabilities, and Tactics in a Taiwan Strait Conflict."

Chapter 10 details how Taiwan's air defences would be overwhelmed by clouds of Chinese ballistic missiles. USAF bases in the western Pacific would receive similar treatment, in addition to attention from dozens of H-6K's carrying long range cruise missiles. Crucially, the USAF has few backup options owing to simple geography: it is forced to operate from a vast ocean with scattered, far-apart airfields. China meanwhile has tremendous strategic depth, with numerous airfields and plenty of space to hide mobile missile launchers.

With Taiwan's air defences knocked out and USAF bases disabled, PLAAF fighters would establish air corridors that its attack aircraft could use to approach Taiwan at low altitude. Ultimately, the PLAAF would establish aerial supremacy over the east coast of Taiwan using long range fighters such as the J-11B (China's Su-27 copy) as well as the J-10 (which would require aerial refuelling at this range). This would prevent American AEW&C planes from peering at shipping in the Taiwan Strait, thus opening the door for an amphibious invasion.

The report focuses on scenarios between 2015-2030, so it is disappointing that it does not explore how China's probable aircraft carrier fleet would likely be employed in the Taiwan scenario. Fascinating reading though, and it makes me wonder whether the 60 F-16 C/D's Taiwan wants from the USA would really make much difference in the event of a shooting war - which, with luck, will never come to pass. 

South Korean publications are abuzz with a press pickup that Indonesia will buy 16 KAI T-50 advanced jet trainer aircraft to replace its aging BAE Hawks. The apparent source of the news was a story from Indonesian publisher Seputar Indonesia, quoting Indonesian Air Force chief of staff Imam Sufaat.

Unfortunately no amount of searching on Seputar's website produces an article mentioning the T-50, let alone the air force chief committing to a 16 aircraft purchase. There is also nothing about this on Antara or in the Indonesian papers.

The Korean reports also say that the Korean government has not heard anything about a purchase, and a KAI executive tells FlightGlobal that he has heard nothing. 

Hmmm...

If nothing else, the Korean press's eagerness to pickup this vague hint of news belies the sense of urgency around winning an overseas customer for the high profile T-50. The aircraft has no overseas wins after losing out to the Alenia Aermacchi M-346 in the United Arab Emirates (though this deal seems to be in limbo), and in Singapore.

Despite a strange incident in January allegedly involving South Korean spies in an Indonesian defence delegation's hotel room, KAI and the T-50 would appear to be in a strong position. South Korea's air force and coast guard operate C-235's made by Indonesia Aerospace, and at Farnborough last year Korea and Indonesia signed an MOU to work on the KF-X project - although Indonesia's commitment to this project could be in doubt.

Watch this space.

It was with some relish that I started reading a translation of China's defence white paper this morning. Entitled 'China's National Defense in 2010', the document was published in English on the China Daily web site on 1 April 2011. As the long, chunky paragraphs rolled slowly along, my hopes of fascinating details soon diminished.

Unusually for a document about military affairs the paper mentions not a single weapons system and is seriously short on the details the world would like to see. More impressively perhaps, it manages to avoid using any of the acronyms that seem to be the mark of most military writing.

The first section acknowledges the world is more peaceful and stable these days, recognizes the inevitability of globalization and an increasingly informationalized society, and states that the outlook for mankind is generally bright. 

Soon enough things take a darker turn: "In a number of countries, outbreaks of unrest are frequently triggered by political, economic, ethnic, or religious disputes. In general, world peace remains elusive." The issues that have plagued man since time immemorial are apparently very much with us.

Then, later, a hint of paranoia (and a dig at the USA): "International military competition remains fierce. Major powers are stepping up the realignment of their security and military strategies, accelerating military reform, and vigorously developing new and more sophisticated military technologies. Some powers have worked out strategies for outer space, cyber space and the polar regions, developed means for prompt global strikes, accelerated development of missile defense systems, enhanced cyber operations capabilities to occupy new strategic commanding heights."

So much for world peace.  Later on, predictably, the paper emphasises China's seriousness about Taiwan, and again registers China's displeasure about American weapons sales to Taiwan.

As for the PLAAF there is precious little.  A long, 267-word paragraph on the PLAAF essentially says it is being transformed into a more modern, capable force that can perform a range of missions and can operate increasingly sophisticated equipment. 

As for the Chinese military's new weapons and technologies, the report reserves just one frugal line for the PLAAF: "The PLAAF has formed for its air control operations a weaponry system with new types of combat aircraft and ground-to-air missile systems as the spine."

The white paper concludes with this:

"China attaches great importance to military transparency, and makes efforts to promote mutual trust with other countries in the military sphere. Since 2007, China has begun to report to the UN Standardized Instrument for Reporting Military Expenditures."

It was comforting, at the end, to read that transparency is a priority. With luck the next white paper will offer more details about China's various aircraft projects, its aircraft carrier programme, its DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, cyber warfare capabilities, and how these systems tie into its sweeping territorial claims in the South and East China Seas.

Less information is definitely not more when it comes to the development of China's military.

The cover of this week's Flight International is not of an aircraft, but of a ship, the Nimitz class carrier USS Harry Truman. Naturally there are plenty of aircraft visible: F-18s, E-2Cs, and the odd EA-6B.

The issue marks a century of naval aviation, for which my colleague Stephen Trimble wrote two features about the history of the carrier, arguably the most important warship type of the twentieth century.

Though much is made of China's supposed 'carrier-killer' programmes - the DF-21 anti-ship ballistic missile, the J-20 (is it designed to lob missiles at American carriers?), and its attack submarines - the PLAN seems to be making good headway with the Shi Lang, formerly the Russian aircraft carrier Varyag.

In this morning's troll through the region's defence sites I came across some recent shots of the ship. Most of the scaffolding around the island is gone, the ship boasts a fresh coat of paint, and various antennas (some covered in plastic) have been mounted. The deck crawls with workers.

Sadly there have been no appearances of the J-15 (China's Su-33 knock off) lately, but perhaps we'll see something soon, for things seem to be moving along nicely in Dalian. 

Few pundits doubt China's ambitions in regard to aircraft carriers. Over the last 100 years the triumphs and tribulations of naval aviation in the west have been of great interest to our readers. Naval aviation developments in the east are bound to be equally captivating over the next century.