Must read: Rand's view on PLAAF vs. Taiwan

The implications of a bust up between China and Taiwan are almost too harrowing to contemplate, especially if the United States and Japan were drawn in. The world's inter-connected economy would collapse as the world entered the great unknown. The human toll could be horrendous.

Nonetheless, China is dead serious about getting Taiwan back, and force will remain very much on the table. A recent Rand Corporation report ('Shaking the Heavens and Splitting the Earth') does a good job of discussing how the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) would go about conducting itself in war for Taiwan. Including the index the report is an intimidating 308 pages long. The most interesting section by far is chapter 10: "Possible PLAAF Operational Concepts, Capabilities, and Tactics in a Taiwan Strait Conflict."

Chapter 10 details how Taiwan's air defences would be overwhelmed by clouds of Chinese ballistic missiles. USAF bases in the western Pacific would receive similar treatment, in addition to attention from dozens of H-6K's carrying long range cruise missiles. Crucially, the USAF has few backup options owing to simple geography: it is forced to operate from a vast ocean with scattered, far-apart airfields. China meanwhile has tremendous strategic depth, with numerous airfields and plenty of space to hide mobile missile launchers.

With Taiwan's air defences knocked out and USAF bases disabled, PLAAF fighters would establish air corridors that its attack aircraft could use to approach Taiwan at low altitude. Ultimately, the PLAAF would establish aerial supremacy over the east coast of Taiwan using long range fighters such as the J-11B (China's Su-27 copy) as well as the J-10 (which would require aerial refuelling at this range). This would prevent American AEW&C planes from peering at shipping in the Taiwan Strait, thus opening the door for an amphibious invasion.

The report focuses on scenarios between 2015-2030, so it is disappointing that it does not explore how China's probable aircraft carrier fleet would likely be employed in the Taiwan scenario. Fascinating reading though, and it makes me wonder whether the 60 F-16 C/D's Taiwan wants from the USA would really make much difference in the event of a shooting war - which, with luck, will never come to pass.