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June 2011 Archives

PHOTOS: China's Global Hawk?

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Photos have emerged on the China Defense Mashup web site of a possible Chinese high altitude long endurance (HALE) UAV at the Chengdu airfield.

The aircraft resembles the Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk, with a rear-mounted intake above the tail and long thin wings that would be suitable for sustained high altitude flight. Unlike Global Hawk's 'V' tail the Chinese aircraft has a more traditional tail plane. China Mashup speculates that it is the Xianglong UAV, which first appeared in model form at the China Air Show in Zhuhai in 2006.

If the J-20 exposure pattern (grainy photos followed by amateur video) is anything to go by, with luck we'll see this UAV in flight in the next few weeks.

This is the second sighting of a Chinese UAV in as many weeks. Last week Japan Security Watch posted photos of a UAV apparently operating from a Chinese warship. 

Follow me on Twitter: @AsiaJetWatch

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China's aircraft carrier: the Death Star of the Spratlys

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China's new aircraft carrier is again in the news, with sea trials apparently due next week, perhaps to coincide with the 90th anniversary of China's communist party.  There are any number of skeptics about the ship. A recent post by the Lexington Institute suggests the carrier is an immense mistake. A "highly vulnerable extravagance" is how the author puts it. 

In the context of 'The Big One' with the US (or Japan, Korea, and perhaps Taiwan) I'd have to agree. The Shi Lang (if the ship is named thus) and her escorts would be  magnets for enemy aircraft and submarines. Her sinking would entail great loss of life and be catastrophic for morale, much like the loss of the Argentinean cruiser General Belgrano in the 1982 Falklands War, or even the sinking of Britain's Prince of Wales and Repulse in World War II.

But short of a full scale war with another top power the Shi Lang and the more capable flattops that will follow make immeasurably good sense. If recent Chinese belligerence is any indication, the hotspot of the next few decades will be the South China Sea in general and the Spratly Islands in particular. Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, and China all lay claims in the Spratlys.

While no Nimitz, the Shi Lang is well suited to a situation in which China felt she needed a rapid show of force in the South China Sea. Aside from Thailand's tiny HTMS Chakri Naruebet - Thailand makes no claims in the Spratlys - no Southeast Asian nation deploys anything remotely like the naval air capability proposed by the Shi Lang and future Chinese carriers, which are likely to carry more fighters and dedicated airborne early warning & control (AEW&C) aircraft.

In the unlikely event that flexing muscles is not enough to terrify a Southeast Asian rival, Chinese carriers in the South China Sea will operate under the protective umbrella of aircraft operated from bases on the mainland and Hainan Island. It also is worth remembering that countries with long littorals such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia are uniquely vulnerable to incursions by small packets of carrier-based fighters, as demonstrated by the US navy during the Vietnam War.

Perhaps, decades from now, China will indeed have a carrier fleet to challenge the US in the world's great oceans - assuming that carriers retain their importance far into the 21st century.  Until that time her big ships will be plenty capable of bullying smaller neighbours around the South China Sea. China's carrier programme is not about besting the US, but about guaranteeing aerial supremacy over a region Beijing views as a vital national interest. 

Follow me on Twitter: @AsiaJetWatch

Video: Northrop Grumman shortens the kill chain

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Monday I attended a briefing at the Northrop Grumman media chalet hosted by the company's Rotorcraft Avionics Innovation Laboratory. The lab has created a software upgrade for Northrop's APR 39 radar warning receiver that transforms this piece of equipment into an electronic suite controller. Virtually all American helicopters have an APR 39, and putting it to dual use increases neither weight or power consumption.

The benefit of the controller, as shown in this video provided to journalists by Northrop, is its ability to show information about various threats on a single MFD screen or whatever format the user desires. The upgrade also allows the APR 39 to pass on threat information to other platforms. This, says Northrop, helps to "shorten the kill chain."

Follow me on Twitter: @AsiaJetWatch

Asiana A320 incident: send cards

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There has been an outcry in South Korea about the bizarre incident in which two Korean marines fired over 100 rounds at an Asiana A320 they mistook for a North Korean bomber. Oddly they did not shoot at the plane that over flew them 20 minutes earlier, and the ones before that - flight paths are, if anything, predictable.

Following the worrying incident (what if the marines had a MANPAD?) South Koreans are calling for improved training of their soldiers. I propose a simpler solution. Back in WWII soldiers were issued playing cards with aircraft silhouettes. The idea was to help them familiarize themselves with allied types. I'm not sure how many aircraft (if any) such cards saved from friendly fire, but it would be a good, low cost solution for the South Koreans and provided a much needed PR opportunity. 

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Australia's MH-60R 'Romeos' tout 'underwater Aegis'

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Romeo 2.jpgDuring the this year's Avalon air show I had a choice: a media dinner at Gordon Ramsey's famous restaurant, or dinner with the Lockheed Martin guys pitching the MH-60R 'Romeo' to Australia. Things military being far more interesting than things edible, I opted for the Romeo dinner. 

The meal, with three Lockheed guys and two other journalists, turned out to be excellent. Far more interesting was my discussion with one of the Lockheed guys, a former US navy officer who had spent a good part of his career hunting submarines in the Seasprite and Seahawk helicopters.  

Given the rising prevalence of super quiet diesel electric submarines in the Asia Pacific, both in North Asia and Southeast Asia, I asked him if sensors were still up to the task of finding them. Turns out the old 'listen for the enemy submarine'  - as in the iconic book The Hunt for Red October -  is no longer how its done.

These days its all about ultra low frequency sonar, which my host called 'The underwater Aegis, ' referring to the active electronically scanned array radar used on US Arleigh Burke destroyers and Ticonderoga cruisers. In the Romeo this capability is provided by the Raytheon ASQ-22 dipping sonar. He told me the ASQ-22 has been very effective in exercises against diesel electric submarines operated by allied powers.

"When the submarines hear the Romeos will be in the exercise, they know they are going to get caught," he said.

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Singapore Girl: You've Found A Not So Great Way to Sleep

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I came across this article, "Should an SIA Girl sleep among passenger seats?", by accident and it sparked my curiosity. In it, a passenger surnamed Tan was on board a Singapore Airlines flight from Christchurch to Singapore and he or she said:

"I was amazed to see the stewardesses on the flight take their rest among the passengers."
The passenger asked why there was a shortage of a cabin crew bunks, and that other passengers were asking those crew who were resting for drinks. In response, a Singapore Airlines spokesman said:

"The absence of bunks was in line with guidelines set by the Air Operator Certificate Requirements, which states that rest is only mandatory for cabin crew members who are on duty for 14h or more."
The article continues to say: "It is understood that there are no bunks for in-flight crew onboard some SIA flights to and from Christchurch and Auckland as the aircraft used for the flights -- a variant of the Boeing 777 -- do not come with crew bunks. That has been the situation since last July."

(Note: Based on the information in Innovata, SIA operates Boeing 777-200/200ER and 777-300 variants on both Auckland and Christchurch routes. The configuration varies on each plane type.)

The article quotes an unnamed cabin crew, who lamented that she got very little rest as a result of passengers approaching her and her colleagues for service on the Singapore-Auckland flights, which are almost 10h long.

500blog-sqgirls_070458.jpgWhen I posted the link on my Facebook and Twitter accounts, the response I got ranged from surprise to criticism of the article, of the passenger who recounted his experience, and The New Paper tabloid which first published the article.

I agree with the criticisms. As one tweet put it: "...why are the people so mean and are they stupid?"

Grounded! SIA's new website kills Taipei trip

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SIA A380 second picture.gifHow hard can it be to book a round trip ticket to Taipei on Singapore Airlines? With its old website, easy. Since the launch of its new website in May, impossible.

Logging on with my UserID and PIN was easy enough. On the site itself loading up the flights on my desired dates was no problem, but then I was stopped cold. There are three flights daily to Taipei, where I need to travel between the 10th and 12th of August to attend an air show. I can book the outbound leg or the inbound leg, but not both at the same time.

Trying to book the second leg produces an unfriendly message: "This option cannot be combined with the selected fair family in the onward journey." No matter what I do, this message eventually pops up. Perhaps there is a way to change the fare family, but I could not work it out. Am I just bad at tech? Perhaps I'll fly to Taipei, cover the air show for Flightglobal, and stay there.

I'm not entirely surprised by my experience. My girlfriend spent a recent Saturday morning cursing the new site. After one hour she gave up and called customer service. My colleague says he could book a flight on his Krisflyer iPhone app, but this wouldn't let him book his seats. Eventually he called SIA in frustration. 

"It took them a day to sort it all out," says he. "To be fair they were really nice, considering all the hassle they are probably getting these days."

How could this happen to the mighty SIA? In the past this branding juggernaut has been brilliant at transitions. In 2007 the carrier's launch of the first A380 was an international marketing coup. The "First to fly the A380" extravaganza cast SIA as ultra-modern and yet brought romance back to travel, an antidote to the cramped, anonymous experience of budget air travel.

My girlfriend works for a big IT firm. I asked her about software migrations.

"They probably did what we call a big bang," she replied. "A big bang sees everything migrated all at once. It's very risky. Big internet firms offer users the option to use the previous version of the site until they sort out the bugs in the new site."

"That makes sense. Why didn't SIA do this?"

"I have no idea, but a big bang is much cheaper."

Sadly myself, my girlfriend, and my colleague are not alone. Complaints about the new site on Twitter and Facebook are legion.

Long term impact of all this? Krisflyer miles and SIA's route network ensure the local market remains captive, but what of travellers in overseas markets such as the UK and Australia? I've not heard of any issues on the Qantas and British Airways sites lately.

However vexing the site 'upgrade' may be to SIA's prospective customers, eventually the airline will sort it out. Perhaps it will be superior to the old site, which many felt was excellent.

Advice to SIA: "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." 

Lowy Institute questions Australia's F-35 future

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When F-35 programme executive officer Vice Adm David Venlet briefed Australian defence journalists on the F-35 programme in late February he was bombarded with tough questions. The journalists, mostly sector veterans, had been following the programme for years and asked detailed questions about everything from costs to block software upgrades.

Their queries reflected the concerns some Australians have about the troubled programme. The latest party to express doubts is the Lowy Institute for International Policy, an Australian thank tank.

In a report titled "Dangerous luxuries: how the quest for high-end capabilities leaves the Australian defence force vulnerable to mission failure," Lowy questions Australia's focus on high-end, conventional warfare as outlined in Australia's 2009 defence whitepaper.

In the report appendix Lowy notes that if costs of the F-35 cannot be managed, Australia could end up with only 50-60 F-35s, compared with the planned 72-100. In a major war, Lowy reasons, this limited number of airframes could be overwhelmed by a large force of qualitatively inferior rivals. The report refers to 'Chinese MiG-21s', though far more capable J-10s and J-11s would be the more likely rivals - and, strictly speaking, China does not operate the MiG-21, but rather the Chengdu J-7.

Lowy's proposed solution to potentially higher F-35 costs is the purchase of additional F/A-18 E/F Super Hornets equipped with the AGM-158 JASSM (joint air-to-surface standoff missile), as well as more extensive use of unmanned aerial vehicles for reconnaissance and combat. 

The report also proposes that the US and Australia sign an agreement whereby F-22s would be based in Australia in event of emergency - rather than Australia trying to hold the fort on its own. F-22s in Australia is an interesting idea. That said, in a world where Chinese warplanes directly threatened Australia the USA may well have use for its 186 F-22s elsewhere. 

Taiwan's AH-64 deal: a knife for a gunfight

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Some years back I toured the USS Nimitz . Somebody in the group asked the officer showing us around about the RIM-7 Sea Sparrow launcher.

"If it ever gets to the point we need to use that, we're already dead," he replied.

The same could be said of last week's news that Taiwan will purchase 30 Boeing AH-64 Block III attack helicopters from the United States. There is little doubt about the Apache's effectiveness in combat over the last two decades in conditions where its western users have aerial supremacy. Providing more Apaches to Taiwan, however, is somewhat like providing a knife to a man who needs a rifle.

In the (extremely hypothetical) scenario where China was committed to using force to take the island, it would strive to achieve aerial superiority, if not outright supremacy, before launching its invasion fleet across the Straits of Taiwan. This is outlined in a recent Rand Report, Shaking the Heavens and Splitting the Earth.

How well the Apache would perform its ground attack role in sky filled with Chinese fighters is questionable. Effective? Perhaps. A game changer? No way.

What Taiwan really needs (wait for it) from the USA are the 66 Lockheed Martin F-16 C/Ds it has been seeking since 2006. Notwithstanding the support of many congressmen for the deal, Washington is simply too wary of China to sign off. According to some industry observers Washington is also concerned about China gaining access to the technology in these aircraft.

Meanwhile China continues building its fleet of J-10s - with photos emerging recently of the J-10B with what looks like an AESA radar - and J-11s.  Last week it confirmed the existence of the Shi-Lang, its new aircraft carrier. It also has plenty of missiles capable of hammering Taiwan's airfields. And then there is the developmental Chengdu J-20, which some view as a long range strike aircraft.

Against all this Taiwan fields its aging F-16 A/Bs, Mirage-2000s, Ching-kuos, and F-5s. It is a fleet badly in need of renewal, but what outsider will dare risk China's ire?

A quick browse of the weekend's news shows China has yet to pound its fist on the table in response to the Apache deal.  If it remains true to form it will issue a blistering response and suspend military ties with the USA for a while. But behind the bluster its military brass will know that the Apache deal has done little to change the balance of power in the Taiwan Straits. 

Asia's new carriers pick up steam

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Two big news items today, one about China's new aircraft carrier, the other about India's. 

China, more or less, confirmed its carrier programme. Although the former USSR carrier Varyag is clearly visible in Dalian - apparently a great view is available from the bedroom section of Ikea - the country has never officially acknowledged the ship, though it has been crawling with workers for years. What's more, the ship has a new phased array radar and bristles with other antennas.

The Chinese language Hong Kong Commercial Daily quotes a senior Chinese officer, chief of the general staff Chen Bingde, confirming (finally) the programme's existence. He added that the ship is not ready - as China's internet community already knows.

Chen noted that the carrier is not for offensive purposes, but serves a defensive role given the pressures China faces on its various ocean frontiers in the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea. Apparently the other countries that share these seas need not feel pressured by China's rhetoric ('we own the South China Sea') and major military build up. It is widely reported, incidentally, that the new carrier will bear the name Shi Lang, a Chinese admiral who conquered Taiwan in the 17th century.

Above is a clip about the Admiral Kuznetsov, the Varyag's sister in operation with the Russian navy. Apparently the Chinese have removed the SS-N-19 Granit anti-ship missiles carried in vertical tubes beneath the flight deck. If you can get through the Russian guys talking, it gives a fairly graphic depiction of the ship's missile and self-defence systems.

Meanwhile India Today reports that the INS Vikramaditya (pictured below) will sail to India early next year. This is consistent with recent comments to Flightglobal by the Indian Navy, which has just received five new RSK-MiG 29 K/KUBs, that the new ship will be in service in 18 months. It has been a long, long road. The carrier programme has been plagued by spats over costs and delayed work.

Both countries have long term plans beyond the Vikramaditya and Shi Lang. India plans two indigenous carriers equipped with catapults - the Vikramaditya will launch aircraft via ski jump. The catapults on the two new ips, which are expected to be in service by 2020, will enable heavier takeoff weights, as well as the deployment of airborne early warning & control (AEW&C) aircraft. The Indian navy has approached  Northrop Grumman for more information about the E-2D Hawkeye.

China's plans are less clear. The Shi Lang is widely expected to be used mainly as a training carrier. China is a newcomer to naval aviation and faces a long learning curve in deploying this capability. How many carriers she plans and their configuration is anybody's guess. 

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VIDEO: JF-17 practices for Paris in Turkey

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Looks as if the Paris Air Show will not be the Chengdu JF-17 Thunder's international airshow flying debut.  Amateur footage from Youtube shows a Pakistani JF-17 performing at Air Show Turkey on Sunday.

For the FlightGlobal team big shows like Paris are like the World Series, Superbowl, World Cup, and Olympics rolled into one.  Paris also provides an opportunity to interact with our readers in new and creative ways.

We have published a special Paris preview edition of iFlight. It tells you what to look out for at the show, and this year's ten 'must see' aircraft. Of the top ten I'm partial to the JF-17, but the 747-8I will be cool, and the Eurocopter X3 is bound to be spectacular.

Click here to create your own customized Paris Airshow web page.

 

Want to hear more from those airline CEOs at #IATAAGM?

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The Airline Business team has had a busy few days covering the IATA 67th annual general meeting here in Singapore, where we put out three dailies. I had the opportunity to catch up with some airline CEOs on the sidelines of the meeting to find out what's happening, and among them was Thai Airways International president Piyasvasti Amranand, who recently announced some very exciting plans at Thai!

 

 

We also spoke to Malaysia Airlines CEO Azmil Zahruddin, who set the AGM buzzing on the first morning with the news that MAS had joined Oneworld. He tells us why he chose Oneworld over the others.

 

IATA11: Plenty to talk about at IATA AGM

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This year's IATA Annual General Meeting in Singapore will be significant and newsworthy for many reasons.

It would be long time director-general Giovanni Bisignani's (above) last AGM, with former Cathay Pacific CEO Tony Tyler designated to take over at end-June. Bisignani will, as expected, give his usual robust views on the state of the airline industry and leave the delegates with a sobering assessment of the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead.

There will, however, be a fair bit of attention on Tyler. He is likely to try and keep a low profile, given that this will be Bisignani's show, but there will be interest in the areas he will focus on when he assumes the post.

Fuel costs are always an issue for airlines, given that they comprise up to 30% of their overall expenses. They are likely to have an even bigger focus this time around as oil prices creep up and as airlines try to find ways to cope.

Governments will also come under scrutiny at this year's AGM, with both high taxes and fees for airlines and regulations that impede trans-national investments likely to be in focus.

China's growing clout, both as a market and as its airlines gain prominence, will be under discussion as well. There will be questions about whether European carriers and the airline industry in the continent will have the ability to move beyond their low growth rates in the coming years. Issues pertaining to the US carriers will continue to coalesce around competition and consolidation.

And then, there are of course the Gulf carriers, with airlines like Emirates and Qatar Airways continuing to grow in stature and use their clout to influence issues. The growth of Dubai and Doha has global hubs also continues to transform the airline industry and that will be discussed as well.

Airline Business will be examining all of these issues and more at the IATA AGM. We will be publishing three issues of our daily, and talking to all of the key players in the sector. Read all of our stories and watch our video interviews with the key players at Flightglobal's IATA AGM landing page.

VIDEOS: J-20, Shi Lang & J-15 (with annoying music)

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More videos from China.

First one shows more of the Chengdu J-20 undergoing flight tests, including a takeoff as well as a landing with the deployent of two chutes.

Second video shows the new Chinese carrier undergoing re-fitting. This thing is no secret, just look at all the civilian boats passing by. Surprising we are not getting more photo angles of the ship. At the end there is a nice clip of the Shenyang J-15 taxiing and taking off.

Apologies for the music with the carrier clip. The macho, 'let's kick butt' music that often accompanies these clips is a bit distracting.