China's aircraft carrier: the Death Star of the Spratlys

China's new aircraft carrier is again in the news, with sea trials apparently due next week, perhaps to coincide with the 90th anniversary of China's communist party.  There are any number of skeptics about the ship. A recent post by the Lexington Institute suggests the carrier is an immense mistake. A "highly vulnerable extravagance" is how the author puts it. 

In the context of 'The Big One' with the US (or Japan, Korea, and perhaps Taiwan) I'd have to agree. The Shi Lang (if the ship is named thus) and her escorts would be  magnets for enemy aircraft and submarines. Her sinking would entail great loss of life and be catastrophic for morale, much like the loss of the Argentinean cruiser General Belgrano in the 1982 Falklands War, or even the sinking of Britain's Prince of Wales and Repulse in World War II.

But short of a full scale war with another top power the Shi Lang and the more capable flattops that will follow make immeasurably good sense. If recent Chinese belligerence is any indication, the hotspot of the next few decades will be the South China Sea in general and the Spratly Islands in particular. Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, and China all lay claims in the Spratlys.

While no Nimitz, the Shi Lang is well suited to a situation in which China felt she needed a rapid show of force in the South China Sea. Aside from Thailand's tiny HTMS Chakri Naruebet - Thailand makes no claims in the Spratlys - no Southeast Asian nation deploys anything remotely like the naval air capability proposed by the Shi Lang and future Chinese carriers, which are likely to carry more fighters and dedicated airborne early warning & control (AEW&C) aircraft.

In the unlikely event that flexing muscles is not enough to terrify a Southeast Asian rival, Chinese carriers in the South China Sea will operate under the protective umbrella of aircraft operated from bases on the mainland and Hainan Island. It also is worth remembering that countries with long littorals such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia are uniquely vulnerable to incursions by small packets of carrier-based fighters, as demonstrated by the US navy during the Vietnam War.

Perhaps, decades from now, China will indeed have a carrier fleet to challenge the US in the world's great oceans - assuming that carriers retain their importance far into the 21st century.  Until that time her big ships will be plenty capable of bullying smaller neighbours around the South China Sea. China's carrier programme is not about besting the US, but about guaranteeing aerial supremacy over a region Beijing views as a vital national interest. 

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