Lowy Institute questions Australia's F-35 future

When F-35 programme executive officer Vice Adm David Venlet briefed Australian defence journalists on the F-35 programme in late February he was bombarded with tough questions. The journalists, mostly sector veterans, had been following the programme for years and asked detailed questions about everything from costs to block software upgrades.

Their queries reflected the concerns some Australians have about the troubled programme. The latest party to express doubts is the Lowy Institute for International Policy, an Australian thank tank.

In a report titled "Dangerous luxuries: how the quest for high-end capabilities leaves the Australian defence force vulnerable to mission failure," Lowy questions Australia's focus on high-end, conventional warfare as outlined in Australia's 2009 defence whitepaper.

In the report appendix Lowy notes that if costs of the F-35 cannot be managed, Australia could end up with only 50-60 F-35s, compared with the planned 72-100. In a major war, Lowy reasons, this limited number of airframes could be overwhelmed by a large force of qualitatively inferior rivals. The report refers to 'Chinese MiG-21s', though far more capable J-10s and J-11s would be the more likely rivals - and, strictly speaking, China does not operate the MiG-21, but rather the Chengdu J-7.

Lowy's proposed solution to potentially higher F-35 costs is the purchase of additional F/A-18 E/F Super Hornets equipped with the AGM-158 JASSM (joint air-to-surface standoff missile), as well as more extensive use of unmanned aerial vehicles for reconnaissance and combat. 

The report also proposes that the US and Australia sign an agreement whereby F-22s would be based in Australia in event of emergency - rather than Australia trying to hold the fort on its own. F-22s in Australia is an interesting idea. That said, in a world where Chinese warplanes directly threatened Australia the USA may well have use for its 186 F-22s elsewhere.