July 2011 Archives

The world faces a glut of medium-sized military transport. Aside from Lockheed Martin's popular C-130J, there is Embraer's KC390, India and Russia's multi-role transport aircraft, Japan's Kawasaki C-2, and China's developmental Shaanxi Y-9.

Last week a picture emerged on a Chinese military website (cnair.top81.cn) of what is apparently a prototype of the Y-9. Following this, an industry source told Flightglobbal that it has yet to conduct its first flight, but earlier this week a news story appeared on the Internet that it was undergoing flight testing. 

What's going on? Hard to say, but China needs to replace its old Y-8s, so we'll be hearing more about the Y-9 - perhaps even an appearance at Zhuhai in 2012.

That India is warming to western aircraft is well known. In the last few years the country has purchased Lockheed Martin C-130Js as well as Boeing P-8Is and C-17s. In the past it has bought Mirage and Jaguar aircraft.  Mainly, though, India has bought Russian kit. 

Anecdotally, Russian aircraft are difficult to maintain, particularly older types. Some idea of the challenges the IAF faces can be gleaned from the tenders it regularly issues for spares.

The An-32 seems to be a particular culprit.  At present there are four separate tenders for dozens of  spare parts. These range from 32 chains (part # 1-2-02(OST1-10806-72)) to 28 bridges (320207605100-0) and 112 lugs (32.02.9605.261.00).

A number of tenders relate to the IL-76 transport and its IL-78 tanker variant. At present the IAF needs 35 wheel hubs (KT-199-100) for its IL-78 fleet. Indian defence pundits have told me that the IAF is rather displeased with its IL-78 fleet, hence its interest in tankers from Airbus.

The IAF also needs some serious tyres for its MiG-21s: 1,400 tyre nose wheels without tube (500X180), 220 tube nose wheels (500X180A), and 400 tyre main wheel with tubes.  Tyres will never be the coolest part of a fighter, but they are important.

All air forces (and vintage car owners, for that matter) face issues finding spares for older equipment. India, however, seems to be particularly challenged, with a diversity of aircraft types  - many with overlapping capabilities - and a number of airframes that have served well beyond their intended service life, particularly the MiG-21s. A glance at the IAF's tenders underlines its urgent need to obtain new types.

On 9 August Singapore's air force will conduct an air show over Marina Bay for the national day parade. F-15SGs, F-16s, and perhaps Gulfstream 550 airborne warning & control (AEW&C) aircraft will buzz the crowd. Two Apaches escorting a Chinook carrying the Singapore flag - one way Singapore compensates for its small size is possession of the world's largest airborne flag - will fly overhead when the president arrives at the parade venue.

One aircraft that would be most impressive over Marina Bay is the Boeing C-17 Globemaster III. Singapore has not ordered the giant airlifter, of course, and as far as I know has never expressed interest for the aircraft. Even so an RSAF C-17 makes sense.

Singapore's heavy airlift needs are now served by the C-130H Hercules, of which Singapore has six. It also has four KC-130s that can double as tankers. These aircraft have been in use for some years and should be due for replacement in the coming decade, most logically by the C-130J.

On the other hand, Singapore's strategic situation is unique. Though tiny the nation fields a hard-hitting army, with 96 Leopard  2 tanks weighing in at 62.3 tonnes each, as well as hundreds of light tanks and armoured personnel carriers. Singapore has also developed the Primus self propelled gun. This 30 tonne behemoth can fire a 155mm shell from one side of Singapore to the other. It has never been fired in Singapore because there is not enough room. None of these vehicles can fit on a C-130, but the C-17 would be a different matter.

Singapore's small size means that a good bit of this armour is regularly deployed a long distance away, mainly in Australia. In the event of a conflict this scattering of forces could be an issue, particularly if Singapore lost access to the chartered Antonovs it relies on now - although Singapore could likely use Australian C-17s or American C-5s and C-17s in a pinch. RSAF C-17s would also be able deliver combat equipment from overseas locations directly into the combat theatre, providing a measure of operational sovereignty.

Aside from their obvious military applications, RSAF C-17s would be a high profile ambassador in the humanitarian crises that regularly afflict neighbours like Indonesia and the Philippines. An RSAF C-17 would have no problem flying 160,000lbs of relief supplies into a 3,000 foot landing strip anywhere in Indonesia, the Philippines, or Thailand.

Finally, Singapore has never been shy of the public relations that comes from having defence kit that is unique in the region. Being Southeast Asia's first - and probably only - C-17 operator would be of great appeal to Singapore's leaders. It would also be a step up from the A400M, of which rival Malaysia will buy five. And given the C-17 production line will wind down in the next few years, a C-17 buy would be a great way to bolster already-strong defence ties with the USA. 

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More images of the apparent Harbin WZ-19 attack helicopter have emerged, posted on the popular Alert 5 blog.

The aircraft is a variant of the Z-9, an armed version of which was shown at Air Show China in Zhuhai last November. 

At the recent Paris Air Show I tagged along to a presentation by Boeing about Japan's F-X requirement for 40-50 fighters to replace Japan Air Self Defense Force McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantoms. The briefing provided an opportunity to ask a question that has nagged me for sometime: why did Boeing offer the F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet as opposed to the more capable and stealthier F-15 Silent Eagle? 

Boeing told me that Japan simply did not want too many aircraft of the same type. JASDF already operates a large force of F-15Js, so any major problem with F-15s in general could paralyse its air defences. Boeing also told me that Japan seemed mainly interested in the air-to-air mission, and that stealth was one of the factors listed in April's F-X RFP.

Many observers seem to assume that the winner of the F-X requirement has a good chance of winning the F-XX competition to replace Japan's over 200 F-15Js. But if Tokyo is uncomfortable having too many aircraft of a single type, then it seems likely that the F-X and F-XX will be two different aircraft.

The contenders for F-X are the Super Hornet, Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, and Eurofighter Typhoon. Of this trio only the F-35 has the stealth capabilities that Japan has long coveted. On the other hand the programme is much delayed, further delays cannot be ruled out, the F-35 will not be as affordable as planned, and Japanese export laws mean Tokyo would not benefit fully from partnering in the programme. This at a time when Japan's economy is moribund, and likely to stay that way owing to unfavourable demographics.

What this means is that the F-35, despite its stealthiness, could be a relatively unattractive option for the near term F-X competition. It is probably too expensive and unlikely to be available by the 2016 delivery timeframe specified by the RFP. And if there are more major delays in the F-35's development, then the JASDF could be stuck with its obsolete Phantoms until the 2020s. 

The cheapest, fastest option for F-X is therefore probably the Super Hornet. The aircraft has been produced for years, the US navy is buying more, and there is great scope for industrial participation. In short it is a known quantity that can tide the JASDF and Japan industry over until the nation can deploy a true stealth platform in the shape of the F-XX.

As for F-XX, Japan could re-visit the F-35. By the middle of this decade a clearer picture will have emerged about the costs of maintaining and operating the aircraft. And, with luck, the economies of scale so heavily touted at the programme's inception may have started to emerge.

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