India's Mirage upgrade: a prelude to a Rafale MMRCA win?

It looks as if India is serious about upgrading its Dassault Mirage 2000Hs to Mirage 2000-9 standard. This is a major upgrade that will affect most systems in the aircraft. The bill, estimated at $2.2 billion, is staggering, working out to about $43 million an aircraft. One wonders if India would be better off buying new aircraft. In his MMRCA report earlier this year Ashley Tellis pegged the flyaway cost of the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet (with APG-79 AESA radar) at $60 million.

Anyway, the timing of the upgrade (first mooted in 2004) is interesting, as it coincides nicely with the medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) shortlist that came out in April. This saw the Super Hornet, F-16IN Super Viper, Saab Gripen, and MiG-35 eliminated, creating a shortlist of the Dassault Rafale and Eurofighter Typhoon.

For some time I have suspected a linkage between the MMRCA deal and the eternally delayed Mirage upgrade. By linking the two separate purchases, India would be able to negotiate a better price for both. France, for its part, could offer a cut rate for the Mirage upgrade provided India guaranteed a decision favoring the Rafale, securing the first overseas victory for the type.

Remember, MMRCA could well go beyond the initial 126 aircraft, with the IAF buying up to 200. Later this decade India will also need a fighter for its new aircraft carriers - and the Rafale has proved itself with the French air force and navy. An MMRCA win would represent serious jobs and prestige for France, making a major price cut for the Mirage upgrade an attractive proposition. The upgrade's cost could end up being far below that staggering $2.2 billion figure.

Indian officials have reportedly set a timeline to select the MMRCA winner in September, with the extended bids from Dassault and Eurofighter to expire at the end of this year. Soon we'll know.