Japan's F-X and F-XX: two separate aircraft?

At the recent Paris Air Show I tagged along to a presentation by Boeing about Japan's F-X requirement for 40-50 fighters to replace Japan Air Self Defense Force McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantoms. The briefing provided an opportunity to ask a question that has nagged me for sometime: why did Boeing offer the F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet as opposed to the more capable and stealthier F-15 Silent Eagle? 

Boeing told me that Japan simply did not want too many aircraft of the same type. JASDF already operates a large force of F-15Js, so any major problem with F-15s in general could paralyse its air defences. Boeing also told me that Japan seemed mainly interested in the air-to-air mission, and that stealth was one of the factors listed in April's F-X RFP.

Many observers seem to assume that the winner of the F-X requirement has a good chance of winning the F-XX competition to replace Japan's over 200 F-15Js. But if Tokyo is uncomfortable having too many aircraft of a single type, then it seems likely that the F-X and F-XX will be two different aircraft.

The contenders for F-X are the Super Hornet, Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, and Eurofighter Typhoon. Of this trio only the F-35 has the stealth capabilities that Japan has long coveted. On the other hand the programme is much delayed, further delays cannot be ruled out, the F-35 will not be as affordable as planned, and Japanese export laws mean Tokyo would not benefit fully from partnering in the programme. This at a time when Japan's economy is moribund, and likely to stay that way owing to unfavourable demographics.

What this means is that the F-35, despite its stealthiness, could be a relatively unattractive option for the near term F-X competition. It is probably too expensive and unlikely to be available by the 2016 delivery timeframe specified by the RFP. And if there are more major delays in the F-35's development, then the JASDF could be stuck with its obsolete Phantoms until the 2020s. 

The cheapest, fastest option for F-X is therefore probably the Super Hornet. The aircraft has been produced for years, the US navy is buying more, and there is great scope for industrial participation. In short it is a known quantity that can tide the JASDF and Japan industry over until the nation can deploy a true stealth platform in the shape of the F-XX.

As for F-XX, Japan could re-visit the F-35. By the middle of this decade a clearer picture will have emerged about the costs of maintaining and operating the aircraft. And, with luck, the economies of scale so heavily touted at the programme's inception may have started to emerge.

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