August 2011 Archives

This week's batch of Chengdu J-20 photos apparently show the aircraft with its weapons bay doors open. 

Something has been bothering me about the J-20, and finally I realize what it is. The aircraft's landing gear and weapons bay doors all have long, straight edges.  I don't claim to be an expert on stealth technology, but aircraft covers with angled edges seem de rigueur on more recent western types, most notably the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor. Note the shape of the panels and weapon bay doors in the picture of an F-22 model below. Square, sharp panel and door edges are kept to a minimum.

At Aero India, a Boeing test pilot told me that the F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet has angled edges for its panels because this helps to improve its low observable characteristics.  I've also been told numerous times that canards are a serious foopah on a stealthy aircraft. 

Wendell Minnick's Defense News story that a US delegation visited Taiwan to tell Taipei that the deal for 66 F-16 C/Ds is dead has created a stir in the region's defence circles. Officials from both the US and Taiwan rushed to deny the report. Nonetheless, virtually every pundit, journalist, official, and industry executive I've spoken to privately feels that Taiwan won't get new F-16 C/Ds. Washington's fear of angering China is simply to great.

Hilary Clinton is due to make her recommendation on the sale on 1 October, China's national day. Given that China's reserves supply a good portion of Washington's budget these days, her suggestion is all but a forgone conclusion: China is of infinite importance, so lets keep the peace, and suggest only that Taiwan's 152 F-16 A/Bs be upgraded. One source told me that Washington and Beijing are like "two scorpions in a bottle." They have a deep symbiotic relationship, but distrust is high on the security front.

In any case, the potential Taiwan sale comes at a time when, after over thirty years of production, the F-16 is nearing the end of its production run. On 3 August Flightglobal reported that Lockheed Martin will  begin to shut down or experience "significant gaps" on the line - unless the company secures new orders for the fighter by the end of 2011.

A 66-aircraft F-16 C/D order would be great news for the F-16 line. Manna from Heaven. Media reports suggest 16,000 F-16 related jobs are at stake, with a number of these in the key battleground states of Ohio and Florida. If Obama is steadfast about denying Taiwan F-16 C/Ds, it would be easy work for the Republicans to take a populist line during the 2012 electoral campaign. They could accuse the Democrats of favoring Chinese interests over American jobs. The could pin him for favoring a communist dictatorship over a vibrant democratic ally in an important region.

My prediction: Clinton will suggest the F-16 C/D sale not go through. Next year, however, the Republicans will make Taiwan's F-16s an election issue. American voters are unlikely to appreciate the nuances of America's financial problems, especially where jobs and national prestige are concerned. China has done itself no favors browbeating the US about its debt addiction. Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter with the slogan 'Make America Strong Again.' Taiwan could see some new airplanes yet.  

During my recent trip to Taipei I came across an interesting restaurant. The A380 Sky Kitchen is clearly the brain child of an avid commercial aviation fan. I hope the food is better than that served by the real airlines. 

Quite enjoying the world of Taiwan military aviation on show at the Taipei Aerospace & Defense Technology Exhibition (TADTE, which everyone pronounces as 'TATE').

The most striking thing by far is the belligerent videos and images the Taiwan Ministry of National Defense has on display.

A video in the stand of Chung-Shan Institute of  Science and Technology (above) has a Taiwanese F-16 destroying a Chinese warship and ground targets, while a UCAV similar to the X-45 or X-47 shoots down an Su-27. UCAVs also fire upon ground and sea targets. They told me this capability would be possible in ten years, but that it's not aimed at any particular country. It is remarkably similar to a mural displayed by China at last year's Zhuhai show.

The mural below shows a missile slamming into a ship that looks remarkably like China's first carrier, which happened to have its maiden cruise yesterday. I'm told that in Chinese the words read 'carrier killer.'

"Is that China's aircraft carrier?" I asked a nearby naval officer.

"No, it is meant more generally than that. We don't refer to one specific country."

Perhaps he was referring to Thailand's carrier or one of the Indian carriers. Scenarios in which either of those countries were to attack Taiwan are, I fear, beyond my imaginative capabilities. 

Though many western pundits have dismissed China's carrier ambitions, Taiwan fears such ships operating to the east of the Island. Most of the country's sea defences are oriented toward destroying shipping in the Taiwan Straits. Air strikes coming in from the east would greatly complicate the island's defence. 

India's IDRW blog posted an intriguing image (above) earlier this week of what appears to be India's answer to the Boeing X-37B (picture below).

The spacecraft pictured is just a model, but according to IDRW India plans a vehicle to test reusable unmanned spacecraft technologies. The Russian's are also working on a reusable unmanned system.

Though the X-37B programme is shrouded in secrecy, its possible applications boggle the mind.  Such spacecraft could be sent up quickly to replace satellites shot down early in a war, and theoretically take evasive action if attacked. They could also have a role in guiding UAVs and UCAVs over enemy territory, and even carry weapons into space, either for attacking targets on earth or for disrupting enemy satellites.