Taiwan's 66 F-16 C/Ds: the Ohio and Florida problem

Wendell Minnick's Defense News story that a US delegation visited Taiwan to tell Taipei that the deal for 66 F-16 C/Ds is dead has created a stir in the region's defence circles. Officials from both the US and Taiwan rushed to deny the report. Nonetheless, virtually every pundit, journalist, official, and industry executive I've spoken to privately feels that Taiwan won't get new F-16 C/Ds. Washington's fear of angering China is simply to great.

Hilary Clinton is due to make her recommendation on the sale on 1 October, China's national day. Given that China's reserves supply a good portion of Washington's budget these days, her suggestion is all but a forgone conclusion: China is of infinite importance, so lets keep the peace, and suggest only that Taiwan's 152 F-16 A/Bs be upgraded. One source told me that Washington and Beijing are like "two scorpions in a bottle." They have a deep symbiotic relationship, but distrust is high on the security front.

In any case, the potential Taiwan sale comes at a time when, after over thirty years of production, the F-16 is nearing the end of its production run. On 3 August Flightglobal reported that Lockheed Martin will  begin to shut down or experience "significant gaps" on the line - unless the company secures new orders for the fighter by the end of 2011.

A 66-aircraft F-16 C/D order would be great news for the F-16 line. Manna from Heaven. Media reports suggest 16,000 F-16 related jobs are at stake, with a number of these in the key battleground states of Ohio and Florida. If Obama is steadfast about denying Taiwan F-16 C/Ds, it would be easy work for the Republicans to take a populist line during the 2012 electoral campaign. They could accuse the Democrats of favoring Chinese interests over American jobs. The could pin him for favoring a communist dictatorship over a vibrant democratic ally in an important region.

My prediction: Clinton will suggest the F-16 C/D sale not go through. Next year, however, the Republicans will make Taiwan's F-16s an election issue. American voters are unlikely to appreciate the nuances of America's financial problems, especially where jobs and national prestige are concerned. China has done itself no favors browbeating the US about its debt addiction. Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter with the slogan 'Make America Strong Again.' Taiwan could see some new airplanes yet.