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September 2011 Archives

PICTURES: Kawasaki XP-1 sports anti-ship missiles

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The Japan Security Watch blog has published images of the Kawasaki XP-1 maritime patrol aircraft conducting flight tests with two Type-91 anti-ship missiles on its inboard missile pylons. The two outboard pylons, between engines 1-2 and 3-4, are empty in the photos.

Japan currently has two aircraft for flight tests and two for ground tests. In August we reported that the ground testing aircraft developed cracks in their wings and fuselage, though Japan's defence ministry was unable to tell us how this would affect testing or procurement timeframes.

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JASDF video: goodies but oldies

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My colleague Stephen Trimble of The Dew Line blog alerted me this morning to a good Friday video from Japan.

Pretty much every Japanese Air Self Defense Force aircraft shows up, notably the developmental XC-2 transport. The only disappointment is that the XP-1 maritime patrol aircraft doesn't make an appearance. Highlights are the F-4EJ Phantoms, as well as XC-2 final approaches at 9:06 and 11:00.

Viewing this reminded me of the urgency the JASDF faces in upgrading its fighter fleet. Though a sentimental favorite, the F-4EJs are obsolete, and the F-2s and F-15Js are decidedly middle-aged - and I hate writing that because these were cutting edge when I was a kid.

Bids to replace the F-4s are due this month. Aircraft in the F-X competition for 40-50 aircraft include the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Eurofighter Typhoon, and the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II. Japan wants the new planes by 2016, which could be a challenging timeframe for the F-35 however much Japan covets stealth.

F-X is a big deal, but the future F-XX competition to replace over 200 F-15EJs will be a monster. The F-15 Silent Eagle and F-35 are obvious candidates, but is it possible Japan could take the plunge and develop a fighter based on what it learns from its ATD-X programme? Japan still likes ATD-X, and intends to allocate (Y) 7.9 billion ($103 million) to build an actual, flying aircraft. Big, limited production fighter programmes are wasteful and often result in aircraft of dubious capability, but they're great for jobs and prestige.

More intriguingly, could an unmanned system such as Northrop Grumman's X-47B compete in F-XX? A large force of UCAVs would be cheaper to maintain, there would be less training involved, and they would have the legs to hit targets deep in the Asian land mass.

I saw a statistic in the last few days that there are more centenarians in Japan than in the 48,500 member Japan Naval Self Defense Force. Demographics alone will incline Japan to military capabilities that involve the fewest people possible. One 'pilot' in a bunker or AEW&C aircraft controlling eight or ten UCAVs is far more efficient than having a pilot in each and every one. 

Leaked Sea Gripen briefing emerges in India

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India defence blog Livefist has published a briefing about the proposed naval variant of Saab's Gripen fighter. The idea of a Sea Gripen is nothing new. In late May the company announced that it would set up a design centre for the proposed aircraft in the UK.

As for the presentation itself, page five caught my eye, as it shows the world's carrier fleets. Interesting to see that Saab classifies Australia's two Canberra assault ships as carriers, though Australia has consistently said that the two flat tops will operate only helicopters. Also, were all of Japan's 32 carriers de-commissioned? Could the battle of Midway be regarded as a four-ship de-commissioning? And didn't the US have a few catastrophic de-commissionings as well? 

And while I'm a fan of naval aviation, I don't know anything about Germany's three aircraft carriers - need to hop onto Wikipedia. And what are statistics about all these old aircraft carriers doing in a presentation about 21st century carrier aviation?

Back to the aircraft itself...interesting to see an illustration of the Gripen's ability to operate from roads, requiring an effective runway of just 9x600m, and that Saab is looking at thrust vectoring, which would help with STOBAR launches. 

MiG-21 touches down on Auckland roof

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Came across a great story on the Auckland Now web site of a New Zealand businessman who has mounted a Mikoyan Gurevich MiG-21 on the roof of his office building. The report says Manfred Bennet plans to put fabric around the aircraft's tail and then blow it with a fan to give the impression the aircraft is flying.


Bennet is also planning on setting up a flight simulation centre for types such as the F-16, F-111, and the F-18. He is also working on prototype helicopter that he hopes to export. 


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Heightened insecurity: anecdotes from the pre-9/11 era

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In Martin Amis's 1984 novel 'Money' the main character has a nifty trick when running late for a flight. Before leaving home he would call JFK with a bomb threat, specifying his flight number. By the time the bomb squad worked out that the threat was a hoax, he would have arrived and checked in. Problem solved.

Interesting idea, but perhaps not something to try in 2011. Amis of course wrote Money in a far more trusting age. Too trusting, as it turned out.

In 1996 myself and two colleagues caught a flight from Boston's Logan airport to Newark. We were late and had to run for the gate. The security staff, seeing us rushing, let us pass without checking our bags or jackets.  We didn't even walk through the metal detector.

"Everything is turned off anyway," yelled one guard, waving us through. "Hope you make your flight!"

I recall that the FBI probed Logan's security around that time. Undercover agents had no problem smuggling guns and explosives aboard aircraft, and all this was duly reported in the nation's newspapers. Year's later I was not surprised to learn that the 9/11 hijackers had chosen Logan as one of their points of embarkation.

In 1998 I was with friends aboard a Japan Airlines 747 on the Tokyo-Singapore route. Since the flight was six hours delayed we had spent the day in Narita drinking Japanese beer. Despite our inebriation, the crew had no qualms about letting us visit the cockpit. There we stood, smelling of beer, chatting with the pilots. Hell, my friend actually brought a glass of whisky into the cockpit.

I'm sure Flightglobal readers have plenty of such pre-911 anecdotes. Perhaps it is not surprising that 9/11 happened, but that it took so long for it to happen. In the 80s and 90s we had but the veneer of security, when really the industry was a huge, lucrative soft target. Aside from the tragedies of 9/11 and the wars of revenge that followed, it is indeed a pity that aviation has lost its old carefree innocence.

Things are much different now. In 2002, at Changi Airport, I approached the gate for a United flight bound for the USA.  There were two lines, one longer and one shorter. A security official told me to get on the longer line, but I needed to use the restroom, so I passed by. Upon my return I joined the short line. Within moments four soldiers with assault rifles were around me, a tense security guard asking me to join the first line, which turned out to be an additional security check. I didn't argue.

Will A400M make it to LIMA?

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Southeast Asia is entering air show season. In December there is the Langkawi International Maritime & Aerospace Exhibition (LIMA) and in February 2012 the Singapore Air Show.

The big question visitors will be asking is will Airbus bring the A400M. Malaysia is the first international buyer of the giant turboprop airlifter, with plans to acquire four. For my part I don't see it coming: the project is years behind schedule, and Airbus is no doubt focused on getting the first example of the aircraft to French Air Force by 2013 - likely before the 2013 Paris air show.

If the A400M is not at LIMA, then forget about it showing up at Singapore. LIMA is a source of immense pride (and dollars) for Malaysia. It would be a slap were the aircraft to appear in Singapore first. 

Other types that would be cool to see at either show are the F-35 and V-22 Osprey. The F-35 isn't involved in Malaysia's current fighter competition, so don't expect it at LIMA. Lockheed Martin still probably wants to sell this aircraft to Singapore as an F-16 replacement, although Singapore may well prefer to upgrade its F-16s rather than replace them.  And, of course, the F-35 has a grueling test schedule.

As for the V-22, Israel is interested in the aircraft. Since Singapore's defence doctrine more or less mirrors that of Tel Aviv, Boeing could well send one of the tilt rotors, which have started deploying to the Pacific. Aside from the V-22, which isn't really that new, don't expect much in the way of cool, new kit at either show. 

Tiger's future after Tony Davis looks familar

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Singapore's Tiger Airways is at a crossroads now that its founding CEO, Tony Davis, is leaving the low-cost carrier on 1 November.

His position became untenable after Tiger's Australian operations were grounded on 1 July due to safety reasons. Tiger's shareholders Singapore Airlines and Temasek - Singapore's national investment arm - were increasingly unhappy at both the bad publicity and the fact that Tiger's Australian arm had dropped the ball on something as important as safety.

That Davis was appointed CEO of Tiger Airways Australia - effectively a demotion - after the grounding and SIA seconded former Silkair CEO Chin Yau Seng to Tiger Holdings as acting CEO attest to that.

After a contrite Tiger resumed its Australian operations on 12 August, it came as no surprise when the board announced almost two weeks later that Davis would leave and Chin would become the permanent CEO. Tiger now has some hard decisions to make.

First up, it must consider its Australia strategy. The bad publicity has hurt the brand, although low fares will go some way towards restoring loads. The bigger issue is that Tiger never made a profit from its four years in Australia. While Davis was adamant that Tiger would take the fight to Qantas and Virgin Australia, Chin must decide if it is worth staying on. The hard, but right, answer may well be no.

Next, under Davis, Tiger made a hash out of its plans to start franchises in the Asia Pacific - and was most notably pushed back in South Korea and the Philippines. Its proposed joint venture with Thai Airways appears to have hit a major roadblock and may be killed off. In comparison, its Malaysian rival AirAsia has successful franchises in Thailand and Indonesia, and will do so in the near term in the Philippines and Japan (and possibly Vietnam).

Chin and his team inherited Davis's plans to take a stake in Indonesia's Mandala and the Philippines' Seair. The large captive market in those countries means that the ventures could be very successful. More, however, needs to be made to ensure that politicians get on board and opposition from competitors gets snuffed out before they get louder. These were issues Davis and his management struggled with.
 
Finally, in Singapore, Tiger needs to figure out how to grow amid increasing competition from AirAsia - which considers the city a virtual hub - and Qantas affiliate Jetstar Asia. Here, Tiger could draw some lessons from AirAsia, which uses its regional affiliates to both grow the market and provide a feed to long-haul low-cost affiliate AirAsia X in Kuala Lumpur.

Tiger's increasingly close relationship with SIA could be the key here. When SIA starts up its still unnamed long-haul low-cost subsidiary next year (it could be called Scoot), Tiger and its potential regional affiliates could do for it what the AirAsia franchises do for AirAsia X -provide feed to and get traffic from the new airline in Singapore. That could make both brands competitive against the AirAsia group.

It was no secret that Davis and AirAsia CEO Tony Fernandes did not always see eye to eye. Yet, in a bitter irony, Tiger's post-Davis future may well be becoming more like its bitter rival. And that may not be a bad thing.

Chinese Predator UAV look-alike crashes

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The China Defence Mashup web site has published a photo purporting to be of a crashed Chinese unmanned aerial vehicle. To me it looks like the Pterodactyl, which itself looks like the General Atomics MQ-1 Predator. Apparently it went down in China's Hebei province. Villagers snapped the above photo before the military cordoned off the area.

Aside from some interesting stuff about China's military, Defence Mashup also has a cool section dedicated to "Pretty Chinese Girls in Military Uniform."

Below is a photo I snapped of a Pterodactyl model at last year's Zhuhai show, as well as the plaque that accompanied it.

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