JASDF video: goodies but oldies

My colleague Stephen Trimble of The Dew Line blog alerted me this morning to a good Friday video from Japan.

Pretty much every Japanese Air Self Defense Force aircraft shows up, notably the developmental XC-2 transport. The only disappointment is that the XP-1 maritime patrol aircraft doesn't make an appearance. Highlights are the F-4EJ Phantoms, as well as XC-2 final approaches at 9:06 and 11:00.

Viewing this reminded me of the urgency the JASDF faces in upgrading its fighter fleet. Though a sentimental favorite, the F-4EJs are obsolete, and the F-2s and F-15Js are decidedly middle-aged - and I hate writing that because these were cutting edge when I was a kid.

Bids to replace the F-4s are due this month. Aircraft in the F-X competition for 40-50 aircraft include the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Eurofighter Typhoon, and the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II. Japan wants the new planes by 2016, which could be a challenging timeframe for the F-35 however much Japan covets stealth.

F-X is a big deal, but the future F-XX competition to replace over 200 F-15EJs will be a monster. The F-15 Silent Eagle and F-35 are obvious candidates, but is it possible Japan could take the plunge and develop a fighter based on what it learns from its ATD-X programme? Japan still likes ATD-X, and intends to allocate (Y) 7.9 billion ($103 million) to build an actual, flying aircraft. Big, limited production fighter programmes are wasteful and often result in aircraft of dubious capability, but they're great for jobs and prestige.

More intriguingly, could an unmanned system such as Northrop Grumman's X-47B compete in F-XX? A large force of UCAVs would be cheaper to maintain, there would be less training involved, and they would have the legs to hit targets deep in the Asian land mass.

I saw a statistic in the last few days that there are more centenarians in Japan than in the 48,500 member Japan Naval Self Defense Force. Demographics alone will incline Japan to military capabilities that involve the fewest people possible. One 'pilot' in a bunker or AEW&C aircraft controlling eight or ten UCAVs is far more efficient than having a pilot in each and every one.