Peter Bakker, who I've not met, is CEO of the integrated freight company TNT, and a very interesting man. He's close enough to aviation to know a great deal about it, but distant enough not to be too much in love with it. And he's just said something fairly remarkable.TNT operates or controls more than 40 aircraft worldwide under the TNT Airways brand. Most of them are short/medium-haul frieghters for express deliveries. But the airline also has a couple of Boeing 747-400ERFs for long-range services - notably Europe-China.
Business is good and the airline needs more long-haul aircraft, but Bakker says TNT has told Boeing he won't be acquiring more 747s.
My colleague Brendan Sobie talked to him at the Cargo Facts symposium in Miami about why - read below why Bakker thinks what he thinks.
Brendan Sobie, Miami (17Sep08, 13:43 GMT, 374 words)
European cargo carrier TNT Airways has decided against ordering more Boeing
747-400ER freighters and is instead looking at alternatives for buying more
capacity from other carriers. TNT began operating 747-400ERFs in late 2006 on a new route connecting
Shanghai with its hub in the Belgian city of Liege. TNT only has two of the new
aircraft type. It has a fleet of 47 freighters but the other 45 aircraft in its
fleet are all short-haul aircraft which are used for intra-European
services. TNT chief executive Peter Bakker says the Shanghai-Liege service, which
operates nine flights per week, is performing well and TNT needs more large
widebody capacity to meet growing demand to connect its hubs in emerging
markets. In recent years it has built up large networks in Brazil and India as
well as China. But Bakker says TNT is now looking at various alternatives for buying this
capacity outside its in-house carrier because the 747-400ERF burns too much fuel
and emits too much carbon dioxide to support a business case for more aircraft
in the current environment. "Two aircraft emit more carbon dioxide than all the vehicles that TNT
operates in Europe," Bakker told the Cargo Facts aircraft symposium in
Miami. TNT operates about 20,000 vehicles in Europe, where it has a large mail and
express package network. Speaking to ATI after his speech at Cargo Facts, Bakker says he has told
Boeing he wants to buy more 747-400ERFs but is simply unable to make a business
case because he can't predict the price of fuel and the price of carbon dioxide
emissions by the time the aircraft reach the end of their economic lives. "I
asked them will there still be oil to put in the tank in 2044? Can I get a
guarantee? You get a very technical answer that is basically 'I don't know,'"
Bakker says. Bakker believes oil prices could rise to $300 per barrel given the
discrepancy between long-term supply and demand for oil and at such a price the
air cargo industry "is not sustainable". He says the industry "keeps things
flying forever but there's no long-term thinking". "Much of the industry is in denial about much of the fundamental issues the
world is facing," Bakker says.
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