Aviation and the Environment

Heathrow and high-speed rail pt 6 (the Zac Goldsmith theory)

2008-10-24T16:02:12Z

A few speakers rely heavily on their data slides which I'll try to update when they're released over the next week or so. One of those is Nikolas Hill, a senior consultant with AEA, but he is also the one speaker to speculate - in response to a question - about where the UK Conservatives got their figures. Notably the one that says high-speed rail is 70X cleaner than air travel.

]]> Hill suggests that they must be doing some odd things with load-factors - "perhaps using 100% load-factors" - but more importantly, taking a particular view of how much greener electricity generation could become in future.

I'm way out of my depth on that subject, but it seems that the effect of more efficient generation could be huge and would transform the environmental equation.

According to the delegate list there is a lonely Conservative Party rep somewhere in the room, but he doesn't take the bait and nobody else attempts to offer an explanation of what they're up to.

Until, that is, the lunch break, when I'm assured by the representative of an organisation with heavy aviation interests that it's all about helping Zac Goldsmith win the parliamentary seat of Richmond Park at the next election. It's one of the poshest constituencies in London (hey, I used to live in it) and very winnable from the Liberal Democrats. And parts of it really are affected by Heathrow noise.

Whether the Conservative party would seriously trash the third Heathrow runway in order to win a single seat - even for one of its best-loved sons like Goldsmith - seems doubtful to me. But then I'm an aviation guy and what do I know?

Heathrow and high-speed rail pt 5 - the international experience

2008-10-24T15:37:35Z

One of the day's most interesting speakers is not actually on the agenda, but Michel Leboeuf of the Systra consultancy arm of French rail operator SNCF gets plenty of attention when he speaks from the floor.

]]> He notes that there are 70 cities linked to the high-speed rail station at Paris Charles de Gaulle and its catchment area has been gradually growing - although it is a rail hub in its own right. In 2007 there were 3.5 million passengers at the station and growth has been 5-10% a year. As he points out: "Air France is contemplating being a train operator."

He's backed up by Paul Le Blond, a consultant for the International Air Rail Organisation (IARO). He examines the routes from Paris to Brussels, Lyon and London since they've been served by high-speed rail. To Brussels, 1h 23min away, there are now "virtually no flights"; to Lyon, at 2hr, there are still seven Air France flights per day; and to London, 2hr 15min away, there are 32 flights.

Le Blond looks also at markets in Germany, the Netherlands, Japan and the USA. Frankfurt-Cologne is an hour by train and there are now no flights (down from four daily last year.) Frankfurt-Stuttgart is 1hr 10min and there are still five flights.

From Amsterdam - "one of the best-integrated rail stations" and where a high-speed line will open next year - six flights still serve Brussels 1hr 44min away by train, and there are 15 flights to Paris 3hr 44min away. As he says it will be very interesting to see what happens from next year.

On the Tokyo-Osaka route in Japan there is a huge number of trains each day and a huge number of flights - often in those nose-to-tail economy-class 747s.

And on the New York-Washington DC corridor, the USA's less than optimum rail system provides 15 trains per day taking 2hr 50min. while there are still "over 150 flights per day" between the assorted airports.

In short, says Le Blond: "There is no clear rule about rail journey time and market share. It is very variable. High-speed stations at airports are not essential for high-speed rail to work"

Heathrow and high-speed rail pt 4

2008-10-24T15:18:51Z

Michael Hayes, managing consultant for Atkins Transport Planning, puts out the question: "Is Heathrow important to the business case for high-speed rail?" And he continues: "If you are going to build this very expensive piece of kit, which markets do you want to serve?"

He points out the complexities of trying to serve the markets for Birmingham and also for Liverpool further north, and he suggests that only Scottish traffic would experience a "significant" shift from air to rail. It might lead, he suggests, to a solution with better conventional long-distance rail services with "occasional" high-speed trains on the longer routes.

"This comes across as saying there is not case for high-speed rail," he frets. "I think there is a case, but it has got to be part of a bigger solution."

Heathrow and high-speed rail pt 3

2008-10-24T10:45:14Z

Prof Robert Cochrane of Imperial College London, who was heavily involved in the the landmark Eddington study of UK transportation, also bemoans the inadequate data - particularly on non-aviation travel, and especially the roads.

]]> Cochrane also comments: "If anyone says we need a high-speed railway but government should pay for it I would need a lot convincing. Subsidies to systems generally benefit the existing users most."

He has some good stats. Heathrow now accounts for only 25% of travel between London and Paris/Brussels - mainly people who have easy access to the airport.

And Birmingham-Brussels/Paris is only 500,000 passengers per year in total - with the leg to London being less than an hour by train. So it doesn't do much to justify a high-speed rail link.

Heathrow and high-speed rail pt 2

2008-10-24T10:23:13Z

Next up is Stuart Condie, BAA planning services director and the man whose show it is.

]]> He comments that "there is not a lot of demand-modelling data - there is a missing link in terms of who would use this". For example, he points out, despite there being a TGV station at Paris Charles de Gaulle, there are still something like five flights per day to the airport from places like Lyon and Strasbourg which have TGV service. Plus flights to Orly as well. Although on the "quite short" routes from Lille and Brussels there has been "substitution".

He points out that flights from Manchester, Birmingham and Leeds - key markets that high speed rail could link to Heathrow - account for less than 3% of heathrow's movements.

He sums up BAA's current position thus: "We believe the idea of chossign between air and rail capacity is a false choice and would lead to to the UK losing competitiveness at a very difficult time. Clearly we need both rail and airport capacity."

Stressing BAA's fear of being out-competed by foreign hubs like Charles de Gaulle, Schiphol and Frankfurt he shows a slide illustrating major cities that have no non-stop service to Heathrow, and another listing 20 cities that have non-stops to those competitors but not to Heathrow.

Perhaps most importantly he makes clear that BAA does want a high-speed rail link. "It is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to create this. It is an ambitious plan but we believe it is a substantial and achievable one and we have targetted ourselves to put forward proposals by summer 2009."

Integrating High Speed Rail with Heathrow: BAA conference

2008-10-24T09:47:50Z

I'm just back from a small but perfectly formed conference in London organised by BAA and designed to help them, and anyone else, understand how Heathrow and the national rail system should be linked - or not. With particular emphasis on the case for high-speed rail. BAA plans to come out with its own proposals in summer 2009.

All of a sudden this has become a big deal after the UK opposition Conservative party announced, to the astonishment of just about everyone, that they would not go ahead with building the third Heathrow runway and would instead invest in high-speed rail. Their leader David Cameron personally put his name to this idea. As the Conservatives have at least an evens chance of being the next government, this is not a trivial matter.

At the conference, where there are something like 100 attendees from business, academia, consultancies etc, there is general bafflement at what the Conservatives are doing and where they sourced their supporting data.

It's kicked off by chairman Tony Travers, director of the Greater London Group at the London School of Economics. Drily noting that Heathrow is "a national treasure" - a very British, and decidedly two-edged description - he says: "High speed rail could make Heathrow easier to access and greener but, and there is a paradox here, easier to expand."

Green Regional Aircraft gets underway in Italy

2008-10-07T14:06:48Z

Today and tomorrow the participants in Europe's Green Regional Aircraft (GRA) programme are in Caserta, Italy to get the technical activity underway. Briefly, GRA is one of the six strands of the all-important Clean Sky research programme. That in turn is the pan-European research effort aimed at helping industry achieve the continent's environmental targets in aviation. GRA accounts for €174 million of Clean Sky's €1.6 billion over seven years.]]> Alenia is of course the half-owner of ATR, along with EADS, and this programme is highly significant for Italy as well as Europe. The company tried unsuccessfully to buy EADS out of the joint venture, and more recently took a 25% stake in Russia's Sukhoi Superjet. If it can position itself as Europe's centre of excellence in regional aircraft then it could be a major world player when the next generation of aircraft takes over.

And of course these aircraft could be very green indeed. Already they're the least polluting and quietest types, and the GRA work is intended to cut fuel burn, emissions and noise by about another 10% each - before further gains from future powerplants and propellers.

The GRA team will actually demonstrate technologies in the areas of:

aerodynamic technologies to cut noise (such as streamlined landing gear)
weight reduction through new materials (notably composites, in which Alenia is now a world-leader)
more-electric aircraft concepts (to cut down on engine-powered ancillaries and to reduce weight still further)
the airborne part of 4-D trajectory-based air traffic management and navigation
various other integrating technologies.

Alenia is looking to have these technologies in the air by 2013 and in airline service by 2020. Might be props, might be jets - which really is a major issue to be worked out.

(Caserta's an interesting place!)

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Users Group puts critics on back foot

2008-09-30T08:42:20Z

Well I suppose the headline above is pretty well guaranteed to spark the critics into action, but the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Users Group launched by Boeing, Honeywell, a group of ten airlines, and two environmental groups has had a remarkably neutral reception. In the tinderbox of the aviation environmental debate that's quite a success.

Another noteworthy feature of this project is that it was kept quiet until launch - also quite a feat in the leaky aviation world. The two points may not be unconnected. Obviously the new group now has to deliver, but in the short term it's difficult to argue with its aims, and opponents may just be drawing breath.

Meanwhile, I've scoured the blogosphere and just about nobody has a rude word to say about it - for now. This blog is from Liz Barratt-Brown at the Natural Resources Defense Counsel (NRDC) which is one of the partners in the group - but it's an interesting viewpoint all the same.

British Conservatives really do plan to drop 3rd Heathrow runway

2008-09-29T13:46:48Z

It's the annual conference of the Conservative Party in the UK. Regardless of how thrilling or otherwise you may find this, the fact is that they are very publicly committing to actions that stand an excellent choice of forming the manifesto of the next national government.

And a huge commitment they made today was to confirm beyond any doubt that they do not intend to go ahead with approving a third London Heathrow runway. That came from shadow transport secretary Theresa Villiers. Their leader David Cameron said as much before, and so did London's Conservative mayor Boris Johnson (although he has his own unique wrinkle on the argument). Now there's no going back.

They'll be spending the money on high-speed rail from major northern cities and London instead.

The declaration has had predictably but decidedly mixed receptions as reported here in The Guardian and here by the BBC. This of course is not a debate that lends itself to neat conclusions - but the "false choice" between air and rail argument does seem relevant.

In the reasonably plausible event of the next election ending with a Conservative victory but a 'hung' parliament, the Tories could count on the Liberal Democrats for support on this issue.

TNT chief: aviation "in denial" about long-term future

2008-09-18T13:50:09Z

Peter Bakker, who I've not met, is CEO of the integrated freight company TNT, and a very interesting man. He's close enough to aviation to know a great deal about it, but distant enough not to be too much in love with it. And he's just said something fairly remarkable.

TNT operates or controls more than 40 aircraft worldwide under the TNT Airways brand. Most of them are short/medium-haul frieghters for express deliveries. But the airline also has a couple of Boeing 747-400ERFs for long-range services - notably Europe-China.

Business is good and the airline needs more long-haul aircraft, but Bakker says TNT has told Boeing he won't be acquiring more 747s.

My colleague Brendan Sobie talked to him at the Cargo Facts symposium in Miami about why - read below why Bakker thinks what he thinks.
]]> TNT rules out buying more 747-400ERFs
Brendan Sobie, Miami (17Sep08, 13:43 GMT, 374 words)

European cargo carrier TNT Airways has decided against ordering more Boeing 747-400ER freighters and is instead looking at alternatives for buying more capacity from other carriers.

TNT began operating 747-400ERFs in late 2006 on a new route connecting Shanghai with its hub in the Belgian city of Liege. TNT only has two of the new aircraft type. It has a fleet of 47 freighters but the other 45 aircraft in its fleet are all short-haul aircraft which are used for intra-European services.

TNT chief executive Peter Bakker says the Shanghai-Liege service, which operates nine flights per week, is performing well and TNT needs more large widebody capacity to meet growing demand to connect its hubs in emerging markets. In recent years it has built up large networks in Brazil and India as well as China.

But Bakker says TNT is now looking at various alternatives for buying this capacity outside its in-house carrier because the 747-400ERF burns too much fuel and emits too much carbon dioxide to support a business case for more aircraft in the current environment.

"Two aircraft emit more carbon dioxide than all the vehicles that TNT operates in Europe," Bakker told the Cargo Facts aircraft symposium in Miami.

TNT operates about 20,000 vehicles in Europe, where it has a large mail and express package network.

Speaking to ATI after his speech at Cargo Facts, Bakker says he has told Boeing he wants to buy more 747-400ERFs but is simply unable to make a business case because he can't predict the price of fuel and the price of carbon dioxide emissions by the time the aircraft reach the end of their economic lives. "I asked them will there still be oil to put in the tank in 2044? Can I get a guarantee? You get a very technical answer that is basically 'I don't know,'" Bakker says.

Bakker believes oil prices could rise to $300 per barrel given the discrepancy between long-term supply and demand for oil and at such a price the air cargo industry "is not sustainable". He says the industry "keeps things flying forever but there's no long-term thinking".

"Much of the industry is in denial about much of the fundamental issues the world is facing," Bakker says.

Source: Air Transport Intelligence news

BAA piles on pressure over third Heathrow runway

2008-09-15T16:36:53Z

At one point it looked as if the war was won over the proposed third Heathrow runway. The UK Labour government was onside and supporters were cautiously confident. But one way or another the whole debate is up for grabs again - particularly since the Conservatives took everyone by surprise and said they won't support it if they get in. So today BAA, through the Future Heathrow grouping, turned up the pressure with the backing of 100 entities of various sorts, but overwhelmingly from the business community, and in large part from the financially muscular end of the sector.

At time of writing it has to be said that this Monday press release wasn't actually getting a lot of traction - but the names are actually pretty impressive and will certainly give the Conservatives food for thought.

Air New Zealand and US FAA in ATM demo today

2008-09-12T16:07:28Z

Assuming all goes well, Air New Zealand and the US FAA will today complete an interesting demonstration of optimised ATM and flight-operational techniques on a flight from Auckland to Los Angeles. The FAA is making a big deal of it - administrator Bobby Sturgell is expected to turn up personally to watch the arrival.

Seems that at long last ATM is getting the prominence it needs as an environmental tool. ANZ press release below. Couple of newspaper stories here and here.
]]> World first to demonstrate potential to reduce carbon emissions by millions of tonnes

Air New Zealand and key aviation partners will today demonstrate the potential for the commercial aviation industry to reduce carbon emissions by millions of tonnes annually, with a test flight between Auckland and San Francisco.

The commercial Boeing 777 flight NZ8, re-named ASPIRE I, will take off from Auckland Airport at 7.30pm (NZ time).

It will operate under optimum flight planning conditions through the involvement of partners Airways New Zealand, the Federal Aviation Administration and Airservices Australia. This should result in around 4400 litres in fuel savings and 11 tonnes less carbon dioxide being emitted.

"By operating under these optimum planning conditions we will be able to demonstrate how many millions of tonnes of fuel and carbon emissions can be saved by airlines globally if they are permitted to utilise concepts and technologies in flight efficiency in all phases of commercial flight," says Air New Zealand's General Manager Airline Operations, Captain David Morgan.

"ASPIRE 1 further demonstrates Air New Zealand's commitment to sustainable air travel, following on from our involvement in the tailored arrivals initiative into San Francisco, a number of fuel savings measures we've implemented and our bio-fuel aspirations."

ASPIRE 1 will be under a fully optimised flight planning and operating regime effectively being unconstrained from pushback to arrival at the destination gate in San Francisco.

When ASPIRE 1 arrives in San Francisco, it will be met by the Mayor of San Francisco and senior representatives of the Federal Aviation Administration, who will hold a media conference to mark this historic flight.

Airways New Zealand, the Federal Aviation Administration and Airservices Australia formed ASPIRE (Asia and South Pacific Initiative to Reduce Emissions) last year, with the goal of making commercial air travel more environmentally sustainable. The group have a long history of working together, including introducing Future Air Navigation Services with airline, aircraft manufacturers and other industry partners. This involves improvements to communications, navigation and surveillance, which have already resulted in fuel and emission reduction benefits being delivered.

ENDS

Solazyme claim algae-jetfuel first

2008-09-11T09:43:12Z

Student journalists learn early on that the word 'first' is a dangerous one to throw about casually, but anyway...Solazyme of San Francisco is claiming "to have produced the world's first microbial-derived jet fuel". The fuel is derived from algae and Solazyme says it passes the ASTM D1655 standard for aviation turbine fuel.

I don't know them personally, but they do seem to have had some success in raising reasonably serious money, and at least some biofuel watchers are suggesting they're closer to producing something usable on an industrial scale than anyone else. More opinions and info welcome.

IATA, CANSO and Eurocontrol get serious about ATM gains

2008-09-09T16:36:01Z

Rather out of the blue, IATA, CANSO and Eurocontrol have come out with a heavyweight document that seriously sets about realising environmental gains by optimised air traffic management. It's a "five-point plan" that essentially lays out the things that will definitely have to be done in order to get the benefits that are generally accepted to be achievable.

We can only hope it's followed up with action. ATM - in both the US and Europe in fact - is the one bright hope for emissions reduction in the forseeable future.

British Airways and Rolls-Royce finally unveil alternative fuel programme

2008-07-10T09:57:42Z

British Airways and Rolls-Royce have finally gone public on a programme to investigate alternative fuels that has been much rumoured for the last few months. This one's important - Rolls-Royce in particular has been scathing of any activity related to non-sustainable biofuels.

Last week I reported this on our premium news service Air Transport Intelligence: Director engineering and technology, Colin Smith, told a pre-Farnborough airshow briefing today: "We are not willing to work on biofuels that are not sustainable. That has been unpopular sometimes - we refused to do one demonstration because of that.

"We need to create a biofuel from biomass that does not compete with foodstuffs. It is just barking mad to compete with foodstuffs."

He adds that the company will also only work on projects aimed at yielding a "drop-in" fuel that could be used as a direct replacement in existing engines. "And they also must not absorb water," he adds.

Smith says: "Most of the current biofuels are just plain daft from an aerospace point of view. They only work down to about -5ºC."

He notes that kerosene has numerous desirable properties and is not easy to replace, but says: "In a few more years you will be able to manipulate any biomass for this purpose. We will work on any biofuel if it is sustainable."

The full text of the BA/RR announcement is below.

]]> Rolls-Royce and British Airways today announced the start of a scientific test programme to investigate the viability of alternative fuels for the aviation industry.

The in-depth study will seek to identify practical alternatives to the current industry-standard fuel kerosene, with the potential to make real reductions to the carbon footprint of aircraft.

The companies will initiate a joint tender process, inviting suppliers to offer alternative fuel samples for testing on a Rolls-Royce RB211 engine from a British Airways Boeing 747. The tests will be carried out on an indoor engine test bed at the Rolls-Royce facility in Derby, UK.

Testing the engine in the controlled environment of a Rolls-Royce test bed enables more accurate data to be gathered than would be possible on an actual flight because additional instrumentation can be used and performance and emissions will not be affected by other external factors.

Following the tender process, there will be a selection of up to four alternative fuels, which will undergo laboratory testing before being delivered to Rolls-Royce in the new year. Each company will be asked to supply up to 60,000 litres of their alternative fuel.

This will be followed by intensive trials, during which the aero-engine will be powered by the alternative fuels and its performance compared to running on conventional kerosene. In each case, the engine will be operated through its full range of power settings including idle, acceleration, take off and cruise.

Testing is expected to be complete by the end of March 2009, after which the results will be analysed and reported.

Ric Parker, Director of Research and Technology at Rolls-Royce, said: "The key criteria for the selection of the alternative fuels will be their suitability, sustainability and industrial capability.

"It is critical that the fuel can not only do the job required of it, but can also offer a CO₂ benefit and be produced without a detrimental impact to food, land or water. There must also be clear evidence of the potential for mass production and global distribution of an alternative fuel to support the world's aviation industry."

Jonathon Counsell, Head of Environment at British Airways, said: " We are delighted to be leading this study with Rolls-Royce. British Airways was the first airline to set fuel efficiency targets, leading us to improve out fuel efficiency by 28 per cent since 1990. We are now well on our way to our target of a 30 per cent improvement by 2010. Recently, we announced a further 25 per cent improvement target on fuel efficiency by 2025 compared with 2005. Should the tests we are undertaking with Rolls-Royce be successful, the potential for bringing us closer to a greener fuel alternative that will help the aviation industry reduce its carbon footprint is enormous.

The results of the study will be made public so the whole industry, its customers and most importantly, the environment, can benefit."

Ends