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Silent Eagle makes a noise in Singapore

By
Murdo Morrison
 on February 13, 2012 12:07 PM
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This week's Singapore air show special issue of Flight International has as its cover, and cutaway star, Boeing's Silent Eagle, the latest iteration of its F-15 fighter. The manufacturer is displaying the F-15SE at the show as part of a marketing drive in Southeast Asia, a region in which it has identified a number of potential customers. As well as a pull-out poster, the issue features a programme update on Boeing's response to 'fifth generation' fighter.

The issue also includes our curtain-raiser for the show, in the form of features on Singapore's air force, the region's expanding MRO sector, why Southeast Asian airlines have fallen in love with narrowbodies, the civil helicopter market and plans to develop the region's airports.

There is also a feature package on one of the world's smallest yet influential aerospace exporters, Israel. The peculiar history and circumstances of the tiny Middle Eastern state have seen it develop an advanced - and highly secretive - defence industry. Although its products have been designed first and foremost to protect its sovereign territory, a spin-off has been a highly lucrative export market. Zach Rosenberg and our Israeli correspondent Arie Egozi lift the lid on some of the industry's biggest assets.

In news, we reveal why Boeing is increasing the range of the 737 Max, advances for the Sukhoi Superjet and why a weak, under-invested supply chain threatens the planned ramp up of build rates by Airbus and Boeing. 

Thoroughness key to decoding Cork crash

By
Murdo Morrison
 on February 13, 2012 11:47 AM
| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The investigator of the Manx2 Swearingen Metro crash at Cork in Ireland, has been able to release enough facts to confirm the accident was not caused by a technical failure.

However, there was a fault the company had not noticed - or had chosen to ignore as being of little consequence: when the power levers were advanced, one engine provided slightly more power slightly more quickly than the other.

The flight-data recorder showed this disparity had existed for some time. The Irish Air Accident Investigation Unit (AAIU) is now trying to determine whether that slight power asymmetry had a material effect in causing the loss of control that occurred almost exactly at the moment when the crew demanded power for a very late go-around. When the crew advanced the throttles, first the left wing dropped, then the right, and it was the right wing hitting the runway that precipitated the crash. But just before that point the aircraft was already on the verge of stalling, and the essential question is why the crew, having intentionally continued the approach beyond the decision height with no sight of the runway, allowed that situation to develop.

Behind it all remains the question of whether the "virtual airline" structure of the entire operation was material to the accident. The AAIU statement indicates it is keen to examine that possibility, and so it should.

(This appeared as the second leading article in the 14 February issue of Flight International)

Angels fear to tread

By
Murdo Morrison
 on February 13, 2012 11:42 AM
| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

One intriguing measure of the health of the aerospace industry is the level of mergers and acquisitions activity. By that measure the indicators are good. According to consulting firm PwC's annual report on aerospace M&A, 2011 was a record year in terms of deal number, at 341, and total value, at $43.7 billion.

In value terms, such heights were last reached in 2007. But even without the $16 billion United Technologies (UTC) acquisition of Goodrich, 2011 is easily the second-biggest year by value ever.

What makes this activity encouraging is that while the number of $1 billion-plus mega-deals is rising - and the UTC-Goodrich deal is the biggest in sector history - it is small deals of less than $50 million driving the volume. For 2012, PwC expects further growth.

A buoyant M&A market points to a healthy industry, in part because M&A is a mechanism for the so-called creative destruction that drives improvement in technology, operating practices and management thinking. In aerospace, deal volume has been trending strongly upward through a decade of dramatic industry growth, in line with surging global demand for aircraft.

Fortunately, PwC observes no signs of an increase in distress sales by companies facing financial crisis. But crises, as history shows time and again, often strike with little warning. And, if there is one salient fact that prevails in 2012, it is this: aerospace is an island of growth in a global economy that is otherwise perilously fragile. Much of that fragility stems from a long-running liquidity crisis. Big companies such as Airbus and Boeing have large cash stockpiles, but their supply chains are characterised by smallish firms with little cash cushion and slender working capital margins.

As those firms are asked to invest in production capacity, many will find banks' willingness to lend does not match the big airframers' resolve to whittle down order backlogs by raising build rates. At that point, airframers and their biggest suppliers may well be forced to step in and buy troubled links in the supply chain.

Such moves are not unknown - in 2008 and 2009, Boeing purchased 787 fuselage plants from Vought and Vought/Alenia joint venture Global Aeronautica, and last year Airbus bought A350 supplier PFW Aerospace - but they should ring alarm bells. The big players may have cash, but they should think carefully before becoming angels who step in where banks fear to tread; for all their mistakes of recent years, bankers remain better at risk than manufacturers.

(This is the main leader piece from the 14 February issue of Flight International)

Rampant Rafale: a contest the French needed to win

By
Murdo Morrison
 on February 7, 2012 5:22 PM
| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Rampant Rafale is our main coverline this week: and that must perfectly capture the mood of the Dassault-led French team which have snatched the $20 billion Indian medium multi-role combat aircraft contest over European rivals Eurofighter. It was a contest the Rafale - still without any other export contracts - needed to win. If the deal is signed off - not a foregone conclusion - it will make the French fighter a more successful aircraft than the Typhoon, which has won several, but small, export deals beyond its four home-nations' air forces.

Our cover story looks at how the decision changes the landscape in the European aerospace industry, where three latest-generation fighters - including Saab's single-engine Gripen - continue to compete. We examine the process within India - the path to final delivery of an aircraft programme in that country can be tortuous as past experience has shown, even after a type has been selected. We also detail Eurofighter's reaction to their loss.

Elsewhere in the magazine, there is news on upgrades to GE engines, a further blow to the Lockheed Martin F-35, this time in Italy, and the latest on the sharklets row between Airbus and Aviation Partners.

In features, we take a spin into the world of civil helicopters ahead of Heli-Expo, with a flight test of the Sikorsky S-76D, a piece on how the global thirst for oil and gas is driving product development at the big five manufacturers, and a visit to the Niagara Falls, where one operator of sighseeing flights is pioneering new safety procedures in an area where there have been a number of tragic incidents involving tourists.

The two markets of the Middle East

By
Murdo Morrison
 on February 7, 2012 3:47 PM
| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

We have become used to talking of the booming Middle East aviation market, but recent events and announcements have shown that while the mega network carriers Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways continue to expand, things are tougher for airlines that rely much more on the regional market.

Royal Jordanian has just said that it will close five routes, cut frequencies to others and "reconsider its fleet size" as a result of rising fuel costs and the affect on tourism of the Arab Spring.

It's the classic double whammy; the squeeze from both ends. It says its operating costs went up 20% last year as a result of rising fuel costs, while at the same time traffic to a number of its destinations, Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain, Yemen and Syria among them, fell significantly.

Gulf Air is in a similar predicament. The Bahrain-based airline was already juggling with the awkward transition from a legacy cost-laden network carrier to a leaner, more regionally-focused player when along came the Arab Spring, and - even more damaging - the unrest in Bahrain itself. Traffic to the Gulf's main banking and trading centre, as well as to Gulf Air's many destinations in the wider Middle East, was hammered.

The Arab Spring has been seen as a good thing in the Western media: popular uprisings to get rid of tyrannical dictators. But for many of the carriers serving the region, the effect, in the short term at least, has been disastrous. Tourism is one of the major export earners for Tunisia and Egypt. For Bahrain, the Formula 1 Grand Prix (cancelled in 2010) and Saudi visitors crossing the causeway for leisure trips to the more relaxed and liberal Gulf kingdom help to keep the economy prosperous. Tourism to Syria - along with virtually all international trade - has been virtually suspended. Even Jordan has had its own scrape with popular unrest.

For many of these carriers, the problem is long term as well as short term. Fuel prices, might, just might, continue to creep down. And visitors might start to return to states that have begun to get themselves back in order after the turmoil of 2011. Even Egypt's victorious Islamist politicians have the pragmatism to realise that bans on beach bikinis and alcohol will have a dreadful effect on tourist traffic.

But the biggest long term problem is how these carriers restructure themselves for a new economic landscape. As tourists return to Mediterranean beaches and investors sweep into a still oil-rich Libya, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. The Middle East's second tier of airlines will have to ensure that they have the right business models and cost structures to respond.

 

Pentagon must mend its wasteful ways

By
Murdo Morrison
 on February 7, 2012 3:43 PM
| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Defence budget planners cannot be too careful. While arbitrary swings in fiscal priorities upset their models, acquisition system failures frustrate their maths. To compensate, they take what the system gives, and dispense with underlying strategy.

The US military's new budget request is a monument to strategic indecision. Caught between shrinking funding and galloping personnel and equipment costs, the budget makers eschewed bold decisions and made do.

Thus, the US Air Force is to "divest" its entire L-3 Communications/Alenia North America C-27J fleet. Most air forces do not know the luxury of owning 38 of probably the world's best small airlifters. But the USAF can dispense of them with a shrug.

Only the USAF has bought 14 high-altitude unmanned air vehicles: Northrop Grumman's RQ-4 Global Hawk Block 30. Only the USAF has decided to retire them before officially declaring them operational.

And only the US military can afford strategic indecision regarding the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II. It refuses to kill the programme, but will not allocate the funds required to approach the original ambitions.

The US military has no peer, but perhaps not in the way it is often thought. There is no force on this planet willing or able to waste so much money simply to avoid making hard decisions. The question is: can even the Pentagon avoid them forever?

It's Dassault's to lose

By
Murdo Morrison
 on February 7, 2012 3:40 PM
| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

New Delhi has moved its decade-long search for a next-generation combat aircraft to the final stage, and kept faith with Dassault. Closing the deal could transform Europe's fighter sector

 

India's prized medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) deal is there for France to lose, with its Dassault Rafale bid having smoked the rival Eurofighter Typhoon on one critical factor: price.

A European victory - potentially worth $20 billion - had been assured last April, when New Delhi rejected four other bidders. Reports since then had pegged the Rafale and Typhoon as running neck-and-neck, but all that changed on 31 January, when the former was confirmed as the lowest-cost compliant bidder for the 126-aircraft buy.

Questions remain as to the role played by the French government in ensuring that the Rafale International team could outbid its four-nation competitor and edge closer to securing its first export sale of the "omnirole" type. In an election year, this was a battle President Nicolas Sarkozy was determined to win. Equally, the Eurofighter consortium's third competitive defeat in little over a month will prompt further scrutiny of the Typhoon's prospects on the international stage.

The MMRCA contest has previously been described as a "must-win" opportunity, but while production of the Eurofighter is safe only until 2017 on current orders, further business is expected. Likewise, earlier contender Saab will also continue building its Gripen for some time yet, following its recent selection by Switzerland. That means all three European fighters will remain in production for several more years.

Boeing will do fine with its F-15 and Super Hornet lines, while Lockheed Martin will make do with potentially building more than 3,000 F-35s for the USA and its allies. Russia will also remain in the game with more RSK MiG-29, Sukhoi Su-30 and PAK-FA sales. Put simply, the global fighter sector will fly on.

What has really changed with the Indian decision is the dynamic in the fierce rivalry between the Rafale and Typhoon. Eurofighter's past dismissal of its peer as a sales flop will be turned on its head if Dassault clears negotiations with India. The deal would see it soar past the Typhoon's current export total of 87 aircraft for Austria and Saudi Arabia. With the possibility of also closing near-deals with Brazil and the United Arab Emirates, the French upstart could begin to draw on the nation's past global success with its Mirage line.

Cynics will point to Dassault's failure in converting past selections to contracts as offering hope yet for Eurofighter. But they should also consider its recent major Mirage 2000 upgrade deal with New Delhi, with whom the company has decades of business experience.

(This article appeared as the main leader in the 7 February issue of Flight International)

Max v Neo and waiting for Vega

By
Murdo Morrison
 on January 31, 2012 2:39 PM
| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

This week's Flight International (31 January) focuses on the cover on the latest development in the Boeing 737 Max versus Airbus A320neo duel, with Norwegian's latest order not helping to put much clear blue water between the two manufacturers. The fast-emerging Scandinavian carrier has placed firm orders for 100 Max and secured purchase rights for 100 more (as well as 22 737-800s), but also signed an MoU for 100 A320neos.

Our cover story looks at how order figures for the two airline families are rapidly converging.

We also fly from helicopters - with a report on the Eurocopter X3's new speed record - to spaceflight, with business editor Dan Thisdell filing from French Guiana on the European space industry's preparations for the maiden launch of its light rocket, Vega.

There is also a report on the Bahrain air show, and why Berlin is negotiating a cull of its Eurocopter Tiger order. We have the latest on the A380 wing checks and details of how Boeing is upshifting production to meet demand for 787s and 747-8s.

In our Business section we examine why it has all gone wrong for one of India's most promising new airline brands, Kingfisher.

And in a training feature special, Mike Gerzanics flies the HC-130J simulator, David Learmount discusses why complacency and poor ongoing training could be contributing to relatively high numbers of loss of control accident, Michael Gubisch looks at how European airlines are filling demand for pilots, and Frances Fiorino finds out how pilots are trained to fly UAVs from the ground.

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What MMRCA means for Dassault and Eurofighter

By
Murdo Morrison
 on January 31, 2012 2:33 PM
| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

In the 7 February edition of Flight International, we'll be analysing what the MMRCA means for both manufacturers. If it does turn out to the the winner - and all the cards are now in its favour - this will be the first export deal for the French fighter and a massive boost for President Sarkozy in his election year. If Eurofighter has lost, questions will have to be asked about how a programme that is producing much greater numbers of aircraft, thus driving down unit cost, can be more expensive than a rival with just one customer, the French state.

Here's the story that we've just posted on flightglobal.com

The Dassault-led Rafale International team has taken a decisive lead in India's medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) battle, with the French proposal having beaten a rival offer by the Eurofighter Typhoon on price.

Although the Indian government and defence ministry have yet to make a formal announcement, the French airframer confirmed on 31 January that it had been selected for the 126-aircraft deal.

Exclusive negotiations for a Rafale purchase will now take place, with Reuters having quoted Indian Defence Minister A K Antony as saying a deal will not be concluded before the start of the next financial year in April.

"Dassault Aviation and its partners reiterate their commitment to meet the operational requirements of the Indian air force," the French company said, adding that it was "honoured and grateful" to have gained selection.

EADS and the German government, which headed the Typhoon MMRCA campaign for the four-nation Eurofighter consortium, have yet to comment on the decision. However, a UK source said that while the announcement comes as a disappointment, Dassault must still clear detailed negotiations to sign a deal with New Delhi.

If advanced to a production contract, the Indian selection would hand a first export success to Dassault with the Rafale, following earlier disappointments in campaigns in countries including Morocco, Singapore and South Korea. The type has also been the subject of apparent past selections in Brazil and the United Arab Emirates, but sales have yet to be finalised with either potential customer.

In addition to Dassault, which builds the fighter at its Merignac facility in southern France, the Rafale International team includes radar and electronic warfare system supplier Thales and M88-2 engine producer Snecma.

EADS management changes

By
Murdo Morrison
 on January 27, 2012 2:08 PM
| Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

It will be interesting to see how Tom Enders differs in management style and substance to Louis Gallois, the man he replaces as EADS CEO in May. Gallois, by any measure, has been a remarkably successful leader of the European conglomerate over the past five years, keeping business units, finances and programmes on track and, most importantly, repairing a lot of the Franco-German mistrust and rivalry that threatened to derail the EADS project in its early years.

He is 15 years younger than the Frenchman, German, and, unlike Gallois, has a long history in management at EADS and its predecessor companies, having led Airbus, the defence division and former DASA businesses before the merger. But he has worked closely with Gallois since the mid-2000s, firstly as co-CEO of EADS and then reporting to him as head of EADS's biggest division, Airbus.

Few of the other management changes cause eyebrows to be raised. While Enders steps up into the job he has long coveted, his replacement as Airbus CEO is his former deputy,    Fabrice Brégier, who will retain the same reporting line.

While a French CEO currently reports to a board headed by a German, Bodo Uebber of Daimler, from May, Enders' chairman will be Frenchman Arnaud Lagardère, head of the eponymous media company and EADS's main French private shareholder.

Elsewhere, the relatively low-profile Günter Butschek, presently head of operations at Airbus to move to deputy job vacated by Bregier. Harald Wilhelm will become chief financial officer of EADS, replacing the veteran Hans Peter who is retiring.

A few heavyweights from the worlds of business and finance will sit on the board, including the former president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, joining the ranks of Anglo-Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal and Sir John Parker of Anglo American. 

 

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