December 2011 Archives

This is my last blog entry of the year and while I'm really looking forward to the break, I'm also pretty excited about some of the developments we've got planned for Flight International in 2012.

One of the biggest initiatives is a tablet-compatible version of the magazine. Although we've published digital versions in the past on platforms such as Newsstand and Ceros - essentially facsimilies of the printed pages - the Apple iPad and other tablets really take the technology and the reader experience to a whole new level of enjoyment and interactivity.

We'll be telling you more about that in due course.

Other things we've got planned include a new weekly "Interactive" page in the magazine, with news of all our great associated products, from air show coverage to conferences, and interactive magazines to upcoming cutaways.

We'll be hosting two flight safety conferences in 2012 - one in Singapore and one in Europe and I'll be off to the Middle East for the fifth version of our Careers Guide, looking at the jobs market in this most exciting aviation region.

As ever, we have a frenetic air show agenda, with Singapore, EBACE, Farnborough, NBAA, ILA and MEBA just some of the events we'll be reporting from in print and online.

If you have any comments whatsoever about the magazine, I'd love to hear from you directly on murdo.morrison@flightglobal.com

In the rankings of aerospace nations, Portugal wouldn't figure particularly highly. The small, heavily-indebted country on the edge of Europe is better known for its food and drink than its aviation-related exports.

Embraer's arrival could change that. The manufacturer - based in its one-time colony Brazil - first invested in Portugal back in 2005 when it bought (along with minority partner EADS) a majority shareholding in Lisbon-based MRO and aerostructures supplier OGMA.

Three years ago, Embraer added to that with a promise to build its first overseas structures plant in the city of Evora. The factory, which will open next year to build parts for the new Legacy 450 and 500 business jets, will rely on a supply chain of Portuguese, and other, small manufacturers.

Now, after a commitment by the Lisbon government to buy Embraer's new military airlifter, the KC-390, OGMA and one other Portuguese company are joining the programme.

All of it is set to give a kickstart to a national industry that has long been in the shadow of its neighbour Spain, where the Airbus Military plant in Seville and other EADS facilities in Madrid and elsewhere have helped create a thriving supply base. Portugal, pulled out of an undertaking to buy the A400M military airlifter, and consequently gain workshare for its industry, in 2003.

I have been to visit some of the companies hoping to benefit from Embraer's largesse in the company of Sergio Olivera, who runs the country's young trade association PEMAS. I'll be writing about the industry and its prospects in the next issue of Flight International, which comes out on 10 January.

We're kicking off 2012 with one of the most exciting developments in a while for the magazine - a weekly tablet edition.

We're still working on some of the mechanics, so at the moment you can't take out a subscription to the tablet edition, or transfer your print subscription. But we're hoping to resolve that in a month or two.

Meanwhile, you can buy a one-off edition of our 20 December festive issue by going to the App Store and typing Flight Intl. We're working on ways of making that a bit easier.

Please let me know what you think.

Old friends Boeing and Southwest are celebrating another milestone in their 40-year relationship after the airline's decision to launch the 737 Max.

However, as with many relationships that span decades, cracks have emerged since the foundations were laid when Southwest ordered 48 737-200s and subsequently launched the -300, -500 and -700 variants.

Before Southwest opted to remain with old faithful the carrier had, during the past couple of years, publicly voiced frustration over Boeing's inflexibility in granting delivery slots and the airframer's hesitancy in fully committing to re-engine the 737 during the past year.

In April, Southwest chief Gary Kelly declared that during his 25-year tenure at the carrier little time had been spent with any other airframer besides Boeing, and "that's got to be different in the future".

Even if Southwest never held court with other airframers, the carrier offered public praise for the Bombardier CSeries and revealed the Airbus A320neo was included in the technical evaluation conducted prior to the carrier settling on the Max.

Perhaps to make Southwest feel more appreciated and smooth over any ruffled feathers, Boeing opted to sweeten the Max deal. Typically dodging questions on actual pricing, Southwest said only that it received a substantial discount from the list price.

Now the cracks appear to be mended in what Boeing Commercial Aircraft chief Jim Albaugh labels a "truly special relationship" between the airframer and Southwest, the real work lies ahead. Southwest's launch customer status gives it a pre-eminent position in approving the final configuration of the Max.

In some ways, Southwest has a blank canvas in crafting the direction of Boeing's 737 Max development, since the airframer has yet to declare which variant - the -7, -8 or -9 - will be built first. Boeing intends to work with the carrier during the next five to six years to "make sure it is the right airplane for Southwest".

As it works to meets the airline's demands, perhaps Boeing should consider accelerating firm configuration from mid-2013, instead of trumpeting the fact it racked up more so-called commitments for the Max during the programme's first 100 days than rival Airbus did after launching the A320neo a year ago.

After all, the airframer has a big promise to keep, with Albaugh having told Southwest: "We'll deliver the real thing, I guarantee you, on schedule and on spec, and you will continue to have the best aircraft in this market place."

(Published as main leader in Flight International 20 December)

Flight International is taking a two-week break over the festive season - our first issue of 2012 comes out on 10 January.

But in the meantime, we are finishing 2011 with a bang. Our value-packed last issue of the year, out on 20 December, includes - pay attention at the back there! - Uncle Roger's Festive Quiz. How much of the year do you remember and how many of the big news stories have departed from your brain like a scrambled fighter jet? Our six-page quiz is your chance to find out.

There are five features on historic aircraft, giving you a chance to find out how David Learmount got on when he flew a Spitfire in the skies the Battle of Britain was fought in and how enthusiasts are restoring Germany's answer to the 1960s Learjet, the forward swept wing Hansa Jet. And there's the remarkable story of how an obscure US museum is restoring the only P-61B Black Widow to flight from wreckage found on an Indonesian hillside.

Our editors cast their eyes into the future to predict what 2012 has in store in our annual Forecasts piece.

And our front cover is adorned with the year's best aviation image...as judged by Flightglobal from dozens of entries on our AirSpace online community site. You can see the best of the rest in a four-page special inside.

One of Flight International's signature packages - our World Air Forces directory - is out today as part of our 13 December issue. You can also download the directory for free. The online version is brought to you in association with Ruag, and is available on flightglobal.com/wafdownload

Solutions for dealing effectively with the atmospheric volcanic ash problem for aviation are slowly coming into focus.

It is clear now that almost all the data that will provide best practice for operating in ash was already available in April 2010, when Mt Eyjafjallajökull erupted, grounding Europe. However, at the time that data was in the hands of scientists, not policy makers or decision makers. As usual, it took a graphic lesson from mother nature before national aviation authorities (NAAs), departments of transport and governments were prepared to listen to what the scientists had to offer. If they had known how to use the data, 98% of the flights grounded in 2010 would have flown safely.

When they did start listening, they found there was a lot to take in. Converting practical knowledge into sound policy takes understanding, and that is never instantly available.

What is happening now at the science level, is mostly about refining ash detection technology and methodology, about proving and refining the algorithms that enable the experts to define, not only where the ash is and where it is going next, but what its local concentration is. Also emerging is the understanding of which concentrations are hazardous and harmless.

Individual airlines that have to regularly deal with ash on the routes they fly had standard operating procedures determined by practical experience. The simplest example is that of British Airways, which nearly lost a Boeing 747 over Indonesia and subsequently learned that if it flew 100nm (185km) from the visible volcanic plume, it had no problems.

However, the NAAs want more than trial and error to make policy with: they want figures, they want tests, they want confidence. The rate at which the space-based and ground-based ash surveillance methodology is being refined is accelerating now it is being taken seriously. The airborne measurement and testing programme, however, has been lagging. There are only a handful of aircraft worldwide with the capability for ash surveillance and sampling.

Enter EasyJet, with an answer for Europe - fit 100 airliners based around the continent with an ash sensor developed by Norwegians and tested by Germans. That way, not only can pilots see ash ahead and avoid it, but the sampling data needed to build confidence in the total system will gradually accumulate. Who says low-cost carriers fail to think laterally?

(This article appeared as the main Flight International leader in our issue of 13 December 2011). 

Want to know what combat helicopters Venezuela flies or the precise types and numbers of aircraft Malaysia has on order? Then don't miss the World Air Forces listing in next week's Flight International, out 13 December.

Compiled by our defence editor Craig Hoyle, using data from our MiliCAS and HeliCAS databases, it lists every air arm's fleet, in service as well as commitments.

We've just produced an interactive version of our guide to working in aviation in China and Hong Kong. The i-mag features video interviews with many of the leading airline recruiters and with ex-pats who have made their home and career in Hong Kong. There are also articles on what it is like to live in the region and even how to find the best school for your children.

See it here

http://cde.cerosmedia.com/China_Careers_Guide/1D4edde3e757106012.cde

I was asked, at short notice, to chair a seminar yesterday on the government's policy on sustainable aviation in the UK, organised by political consultancy Dods and supported by Boeing. It being Westminster, the small but influential audience comprised largely politicians and representatives of trade associations, lobby groups, agencies and local authorities. The panel was veteran MP and former transport minister Sir Peter Bottomley; Richard Mills, strategy director at Boeing UK; Simon Buck, chief executive of the British Air Transport Association; and University of Southampton aviation and environment expert Roger Gardner.

It was a heated, if well-mannered debate - with some fascinating inputs from Gardner and Mills on progress towards commercially-viable biofuels and air traffic management advances. But inevitably the discussion did not take long to get around to the one fundamental question: how can the coalition government on the one hand say it supports economic growth and particularly the promotion of sectors such as manufacturing exports, inward investment and tourism, while at the same time categorically ruling out any new runways at London Heathrow or elsewhere in the south-east?

It was an apparent contradiction that flabergasted Buck, spokesman for the "voice of UK airlines". Sir Peter spoke eloquently of the very real dilemmas facing politicians, who have to balance short-term expediency and the wishes of local constituents and lobby groups against what will help long-term development.

As chair, I had to remain neutral, of course, but I am perplexed by the stance of a government that purports to be pro-business...even if at the same time "the greenest government" of all time. How does the UK hope to compete with cities such as Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt when its main hub airport is already at capacity and has no potential to grow...beyond a bit of slot tweaking around the edges?

It is like the owner of a busy Spar supermarket on a high street, with strict planning restrictions and no car park, trying to attract customers from three out-of-town Tesco, Asda and Sainsbury's megastores, all within easy driving distance; people will use the local store when they have to but no matter how much the Spar does to stock the goods customers want, modernise the interior or provide a friendly face behind the counter, the majority are going to opt for the selection and better shopping experience of the superstores.

Saying the solution lies in spreading demand for Heathrow to other South East airports, like Gatwick or even Manston or Southend, is just like opening a few more corner shops along the same street. 

 

For some, a bit of nostalgia vanished when American Airlines' parent, AMR, opted to file for Chapter 11 reorganisation on 29 November. As American's legacy competitors each took their respective trips through bankruptcy during the last decade, American loudly beat the drum that it, for one, had never opted to embark on that journey.

The period from 2000 to 2010 is referred to by many airline executives as the "lost decade", in which carriers were pummelled by the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the SARS breakout, ash-spewing volcanoes, swine flu and volatile fuel costs.

During that time, American continued to pride itself on the fact that it was the last legacy carrier standing without the help of the bankruptcy courts to toss out labour contracts and transfer pension burdens to the US government. But part of that gratification enjoyed by management was belied by discord among labour groups angered by the bonuses reaped by American's executive team during 2007 as the concession deals which labour agreed to in 2003, in order to stave off bankruptcy, remained unchanged.

Still, management argued in 2010 that it had a $600 million labour cost disadvantage relative to its network peers, and in its statement on the Chapter 11 filing emphasised its plans to initiate further negotiations with unions to reduce labour costs to competitive levels.

"A proud man is always looking down on things and people; and, of course, as long as you're looking down, you can't see something that's above you," wrote CS Lewis. The view above American during the past few years is a dramatic shift in US airline industry dynamics driven by tough, but necessary, decisions by its legacy peers to merge, slash supply to meet demand and zero in on cost control like never before to weather the fuel spikes and economic volatility that awaited them after they emerged from bankruptcy protection.

A year after those carriers gladly bade adieu to the lost decade, American has dropped from first to third in terms of revenue market share among US majors, and it was the only legacy carrier to record a loss in 2010.

That performance clearly shows American has more to fix than labour cost disadvantages as it embarks on the restructuring process. The airline needs to leave pride at the door and take a realistic look above and below if it is to ensure that the American name survives the next decade.

(The above article appeared as the main leader article in Flight International, 6 December)

To the uninitiated, a deal to supply military equipment to a small, landlocked European country which has not fought a war, or been involved in anything resembling an armed conflict, for almost two centuries might not seem that significant.

But Dassault's loss to its rival Sweden's Saab Gripen of Switzerland's fighter contest is significant is that it marks the second disappointment for the French airframer in almost as many weeks. Touted as a shoo-in for the UAE, the Rafale and its manufacturer were humiliatingly snubbed by Abu Dhabi defence chiefs during the Dubai air show. It also marks the latest failure to secure a first export contract after things looked so bright a year ago.

Dassault's decision to publically question the basis for Switzerland's decision is even more puzzling and will do the company no favours in future contests either in that country or with future potential customers.

Our leader piece in next week's Flight International (6 December) asks whether the Rafale is finished as an exportable fighter, or whether Dassault can improve its sales story in the competitions that are still active.

Just going to press on the 6 December issue of Flight International, which includes our annual focus on Italian aerospace, a feature package on missiles and, in news, an analysis of American Airlines' decision to go into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

There are also details on how to enter or nominate for our WEBBIES awards, which recognise the best in aviation online communication.