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February 2012 Archives

In Trent we trust: Flight International civil engines special

By
Murdo Morrison
 on February 27, 2012 5:36 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Rolls-Royce may have effectively exited the narrowbody sector, but its widebody Trent family is powering ahead thanks to strong competitive positions on both Airbus and Boeing product. The UK engine manufacturer's big powerplant strategy is the centrepiece of our commercial engines package and the cover story - In Trent we trust - in the 28 February issue of Flight International. In news we report on the Trent XWB's first flight on wing.

We also brave the elements by dropping into GE's cold weather testing facility in Winnipeg, Canada and look at the new engine projects under development to power a possible larger turboprop airliner - a category of transport not seen since the late 1960s with the likes of the Lockheed L-188.

Elsewhere in news, Qantas delays the Dreamliner as part of a cost-cutting drive and why Airbus believes its A330 passenger-to-freighter conversion will appeal to a part of the market unconvinced by its new-build A330 Freighter. We have news on a heavier A380 and report on evidence suggesting that the modern cockpit threatens the ability of pilots.

Plus, we have the latest on how the Anglo-French defence pact will affect aviation, and how the USAF is pushing the T-38 trainer replacement back to 2020. And we look at how the successful launch of the European Space Agency's Vega rocket is giving a boost to Italian propulsion specialist Avio.

 

Love the one you're with

By
Murdo Morrison
 on February 27, 2012 5:05 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

A love letter from the US Federal Communications Commission to the aviation industry arrived on Valentine's Day. Unlike the flowery prose penned on many perfume-spritzed cards, the FCC's declaration was terse, but brought joy to many heavy hearts.

"The Commission will not lift the prohibition on LightSquared," it wrote, ending a year of doubt hanging over the relationship between GPS and aviators. In January 2011, the FCC conditionally approved LightSquared's plan for a broadband network experts said would divorce aviators from GPS information they have come to love. The approval required LightSquared and the aviation industry to figure out whether GPS and the new network could live together in harmony.

Over the past year opinions gave way to hard data gained through thousands of hours and millions of dollars in tests and analyses, showing that indeed the two are not compatible - at least for the higher-precision aviation receivers that are bedrock safety devices for avoiding terrain and obstacles.

Jilted suitor LightSquared went into denial. "LightSquared recognises, however, that this is just one step in the process, and it remains committed to working toward a resolution," it said in its response to the FCC. One can only hope the FCC has the wisdom to stay the course as LightSquared makes its final plea for reconciliation.

Better late than never

By
Murdo Morrison
 on February 27, 2012 5:00 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The apparent backpedalling by Airbus over A330 freighter conversions - after it claimed, barely three months ago, that such a scheme was "far down" its to-do list - is hardly surprising, given that the airframer's freighter strategy appears to have been directionless for the past five years.

While Airbus's success in the passenger market is beyond question, the closure of the A300 freighter line in mid-2007 effectively began the manufacturer's drift into the cargo wilderness. Integrators UPS and FedEx had kept A300 production alive, but the halving of UPS's huge backlog of 90 hastened its end as a new-build type.

It also illustrated in stark terms the maddening unpredictability of the cargo market, in which limited opportunities for new-build aircraft sales - compared with the passenger sector - already mean that a tricky path must be negotiated.

When Airbus was planning to halt A300 production it showed off the A330-200F, the long-intended replacement, and talked about offering A320 conversions and the prospects for a cargo version of the A380.

However, initial enthusiasm for the A380F disappeared, and took the orders with it, and the A320P2F programme collapsed last year without much of an explanation - beyond opaque statements about economic considerations - as to precisely what had gone wrong. All of which left the A330-200F, whose sales have hardly been stellar, as the last freighter standing.

Despite goading from the Middle East, Airbus has been unwilling to explore the only other avenue along which it might find its way back into the freighter business: a conversion programme for the A330.

The airframer's dilemma is obvious. The new-build A330-200F is barely two years out of certification, so Airbus naturally wants to protect its investment. But there are potential customers whose interest in the A330 as a freighter does not extend to buying them off the production line. Airbus has claimed that - given the demands of the A350 and A320neo - it lacks the resources to develop a conversion. It is probably closer to the truth to suggest that Airbus has simply been lacking the will.

About-face might be a difficult direction, but it is better than none at all. Regardless of whether the uncomfortable Qatar Airways press conference in Dubai helped prompt a rethink or some other consideration spurred its decision, Airbus might just have done its freighter strategy a huge favour.

(This article appears as Flight International's main leader piece in our 28 February issue)

 

An FBO with a difference

By
Murdo Morrison
 on February 24, 2012 3:20 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Had a bit of time to kill on Wednesday while in Paris for various appointments, including a visit to the Air & Space Museum at Le Bourget - venue for our 2013 Flightglobal Achievement Awards.

So I called into a couple of the seven or so fixed base operations that make Le Bourget the busiest dedicated business aviation airport in the world. While other cities such as London may have more business jet movements, they are spread between different airports. The UK capital, for instance, has five commercial airports, all of which handle business jets, as well as around half a dozen GA or business aviation-only airports within an 80km radius, including Farnborough, Northolt, Oxford and Biggin Hill. Most have just one or two FBOs.

The Advanced Air Support/ExecuJet FBO does not look much different to its neighbours from the outside - it is housed in a listed hangar that dates from the 1920s. But it has some nice touches. Aside from the usual crew rest areas, meeting rooms, VIP lounges and prayer room, is a portable building at the back of the hangar that houses two crew bedrooms. The accommodation is not exactly the Ritz, but the rooms are ideal for pilots with a short layover - say 5h - who want a sleep, shower and a bit of privacy but do not want to waste 2h of that being driven and checking into a downtown hotel.

Maybe other FBOs offer this, but it's the only time I've seen this.

 

Entente cordiale gets more cordial

By
Murdo Morrison
 on February 24, 2012 2:58 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

I was in Paris on Wednesday, attending for the first time the annual state-of-the-nation briefing from France's defence procurement agency the DGA.

Amid all the usual stuff about budgets and procurement timelines were some interesting insights into the developing Anglo-French defence pact.

Later this year, the French army will begin evaluating the UK's Thales Elbit Hermes 450-based Watchkeeper tactical UAV with a view to a possible acquisition in 2013. The army, said the head of the DGA Laurent Collet-Billon, is very keen on Watchkeeper as a complement to its NH90 helicopters.

He also suggested strongly that the door was open to Germany and Italy joining a government-backed BAE Systems-Dassault Aviation project to design a medium altitude long endurance UAV for the end of the decade. EADS still insists its rival Talarion study - which Italy's Alenia is supporting - is viable, but it seems increasingly unlikely that Berlin and Rome will want to press ahead with the potentially billions of euros needed to develop a rival UAV to the Anglo-French Telemos system.

Ironically, Louis Gallois - a Frenchman - is left as the soon to depart head of EADS to fly the flag for a project championed by the Munich-based Cassidian defence business of the European combine, and which his countrymen are doing everything they can to undermine. Perhaps German heir apparent Tom Enders (currently head of Airbus) would rather the project died a death before he inherits responsibility for it this summer. 

Demanding the impossible?

By
Murdo Morrison
 on February 20, 2012 3:25 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Supply and demand is the most fundamental concept of economics and when it comes to aviation biofuels, demand is most certainly there. However, suppliers are faced with the double-edged challenge of scraping together large enough quantities of alternative fuels while bringing down the cost to a more palatable level.

In terms of making clear their desire to purchase alternatives to kerosene to reduce their carbon footprint, airlines deserve a hefty pat on the back. But unless they are willing to stump up a premium for greener fuels, that desire amounts to little more than a public relations exercise.

Proponents of alcohol-to-jet fuel are touting this as being the next big thing in making aviation more environmentally friendly. But we've heard all this before about alternative fuels derived from plant oils and animal fat. In the end, airlines that have carried out much-publicised flights using the latter have concluded that while their performance cannot be faulted, there is not enough of them and they are too expensive.

Realistically, airlines are businesses and are unlikely to willingly pay more for something when they can continue to buy a similar product for less. What's really needed is some kind of government incentive to really get these potentially game-changing fuels off the ground, together with some brave investors with extremely deep pockets.

(This appears as the second leading article in Flight International 21 February)

Back Boeing

By
Murdo Morrison
 on February 20, 2012 2:02 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Neither Airbus nor Boeing likes to give quarter in the fierce battle for aircraft orders. Yet, when even Airbus's chief salesman John Leahy concedes that 2012 could be a better year for his fierce rival, about whom he hardly has a good word to say, maybe the tide could just be turning in favour of the US airframer.

First up, let's put things in context. Airbus is coming off a record year for orders, and has a healthy backlog. Delays to the Boeing 787 led to more orders for its A330, and the A380 is still more popular that the 747-8 in the superjumbo segment. Most significantly, it beat Boeing to the re-launch of its narrowbody aircraft. The hugely popular re-engined A320 has had some 1,300 firm orders, and not just "flaky commitments" as Leahy likes to point out in an irresistible dig.

Yet, not all is well in Toulouse. At the Singapore air show, it was Airbus that was on the back foot following its mishandling of the issue of cracks in the wings of its A380, with boss Tom Enders acknowledging "mistakes". It is still not clear if the A350 programme will stay on its revised schedule, and sales of the A330 could slow down with the Dreamliner finally in the market. Just like Boeing several years ago, Airbus has to tackle several issues at the same time.

Finally delivering the first 787 to ANA last year was probably a turning point for Boeing. It is still adjusting its production schedule for the aircraft and dealing with teething problems, but getting that monkey off its back appears to have rejuvenated the company. And orders are coming in for the aircraft, with JAL signing for 10 additional 787-9s and converting 10 787-8s to the larger variant last week.

Boeing has also finally responded in the narrowbody market, with several large commitments for its re-engined 737 Max. Lion Air provided a major fillip at the show by confirming an order for 201 and launching the -9 variant, and more are on the way. Boeing is also firming up plans for the new variant of the highly successful 777-300ER. And with Airbus tying up many of its existing A320 customers in 2011, Boeing could do the same in 2012 and edge ahead in the battle for orders.

It is perhaps ominous that Airbus did not have any passenger airliners in the static display, with a military tanker and business jets the company's only representatives. The 787, however, was the highlight, with huge crowds forming long queues to get a glimpse inside the headline-grabbing widebody. You can read too much into these things but there is clearly a sense that the tide may have finally begun to turn, starting in Singapore.

(This appears as the main leading article in the 21 February issue of Flight International)

Singapore show report

By
Murdo Morrison
 on February 20, 2012 1:41 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The 21 February issue of Flight International marks a debut. It's the first time an edition of the weekly has been largely produced and printed overseas. Copies of our Singapore Airshow issue were distributed to those attending the event...on 16 February, five days ahead of official publication.

The issue itself has a six-page report on a show which - as our coverline suggests - really saw the region's "tigers", both airlines and governments, assert themselves in the marketplace. Indonesia's Lion Air may not be a tiger in name, but it roared into the headlines with a launch order for the longest version of the new Boeing 737 Max, the -9. It was one of several significant airline deals inked at the show, including a welcome contract for the CRJ1000 for Bombardier.

On the military side, Lockheed was bullish about Asian prospects for its F-35 following its win in Japan, while Boeing acknowledged its AH-64D was "last man standing" in India's attack helicopter competition.

There were plenty of programme updates too. Airbus announced firm plans for a passenger-to-freighter conversion of its A330 twinjet, whereas Boeing provided more details about its 787-9 schedule.

The issue is not all about Singapore, with news of an ultra-long-range 777 plan and the maiden flight of the European Vega launcher. There is also a report from Heli-Expo and our usual comprehensive coverage of the latest developments in the world of operations and safety.

Our Environment special looks at the likelihood of creating viable jet fuel from alcohol, green taxiing systems designed to cut down on engine use at airports and Europe's highly contentious emissions trading system (ETS).

Silent Eagle makes a noise in Singapore

By
Murdo Morrison
 on February 13, 2012 12:07 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

This week's Singapore air show special issue of Flight International has as its cover, and cutaway star, Boeing's Silent Eagle, the latest iteration of its F-15 fighter. The manufacturer is displaying the F-15SE at the show as part of a marketing drive in Southeast Asia, a region in which it has identified a number of potential customers. As well as a pull-out poster, the issue features a programme update on Boeing's response to 'fifth generation' fighter.

The issue also includes our curtain-raiser for the show, in the form of features on Singapore's air force, the region's expanding MRO sector, why Southeast Asian airlines have fallen in love with narrowbodies, the civil helicopter market and plans to develop the region's airports.

There is also a feature package on one of the world's smallest yet influential aerospace exporters, Israel. The peculiar history and circumstances of the tiny Middle Eastern state have seen it develop an advanced - and highly secretive - defence industry. Although its products have been designed first and foremost to protect its sovereign territory, a spin-off has been a highly lucrative export market. Zach Rosenberg and our Israeli correspondent Arie Egozi lift the lid on some of the industry's biggest assets.

In news, we reveal why Boeing is increasing the range of the 737 Max, advances for the Sukhoi Superjet and why a weak, under-invested supply chain threatens the planned ramp up of build rates by Airbus and Boeing. 

Thoroughness key to decoding Cork crash

By
Murdo Morrison
 on February 13, 2012 11:47 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The investigator of the Manx2 Swearingen Metro crash at Cork in Ireland, has been able to release enough facts to confirm the accident was not caused by a technical failure.

However, there was a fault the company had not noticed - or had chosen to ignore as being of little consequence: when the power levers were advanced, one engine provided slightly more power slightly more quickly than the other.

The flight-data recorder showed this disparity had existed for some time. The Irish Air Accident Investigation Unit (AAIU) is now trying to determine whether that slight power asymmetry had a material effect in causing the loss of control that occurred almost exactly at the moment when the crew demanded power for a very late go-around. When the crew advanced the throttles, first the left wing dropped, then the right, and it was the right wing hitting the runway that precipitated the crash. But just before that point the aircraft was already on the verge of stalling, and the essential question is why the crew, having intentionally continued the approach beyond the decision height with no sight of the runway, allowed that situation to develop.

Behind it all remains the question of whether the "virtual airline" structure of the entire operation was material to the accident. The AAIU statement indicates it is keen to examine that possibility, and so it should.

(This appeared as the second leading article in the 14 February issue of Flight International)

Angels fear to tread

By
Murdo Morrison
 on February 13, 2012 11:42 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

One intriguing measure of the health of the aerospace industry is the level of mergers and acquisitions activity. By that measure the indicators are good. According to consulting firm PwC's annual report on aerospace M&A, 2011 was a record year in terms of deal number, at 341, and total value, at $43.7 billion.

In value terms, such heights were last reached in 2007. But even without the $16 billion United Technologies (UTC) acquisition of Goodrich, 2011 is easily the second-biggest year by value ever.

What makes this activity encouraging is that while the number of $1 billion-plus mega-deals is rising - and the UTC-Goodrich deal is the biggest in sector history - it is small deals of less than $50 million driving the volume. For 2012, PwC expects further growth.

A buoyant M&A market points to a healthy industry, in part because M&A is a mechanism for the so-called creative destruction that drives improvement in technology, operating practices and management thinking. In aerospace, deal volume has been trending strongly upward through a decade of dramatic industry growth, in line with surging global demand for aircraft.

Fortunately, PwC observes no signs of an increase in distress sales by companies facing financial crisis. But crises, as history shows time and again, often strike with little warning. And, if there is one salient fact that prevails in 2012, it is this: aerospace is an island of growth in a global economy that is otherwise perilously fragile. Much of that fragility stems from a long-running liquidity crisis. Big companies such as Airbus and Boeing have large cash stockpiles, but their supply chains are characterised by smallish firms with little cash cushion and slender working capital margins.

As those firms are asked to invest in production capacity, many will find banks' willingness to lend does not match the big airframers' resolve to whittle down order backlogs by raising build rates. At that point, airframers and their biggest suppliers may well be forced to step in and buy troubled links in the supply chain.

Such moves are not unknown - in 2008 and 2009, Boeing purchased 787 fuselage plants from Vought and Vought/Alenia joint venture Global Aeronautica, and last year Airbus bought A350 supplier PFW Aerospace - but they should ring alarm bells. The big players may have cash, but they should think carefully before becoming angels who step in where banks fear to tread; for all their mistakes of recent years, bankers remain better at risk than manufacturers.

(This is the main leader piece from the 14 February issue of Flight International)

Rampant Rafale: a contest the French needed to win

By
Murdo Morrison
 on February 7, 2012 5:22 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Rampant Rafale is our main coverline this week: and that must perfectly capture the mood of the Dassault-led French team which have snatched the $20 billion Indian medium multi-role combat aircraft contest over European rivals Eurofighter. It was a contest the Rafale - still without any other export contracts - needed to win. If the deal is signed off - not a foregone conclusion - it will make the French fighter a more successful aircraft than the Typhoon, which has won several, but small, export deals beyond its four home-nations' air forces.

Our cover story looks at how the decision changes the landscape in the European aerospace industry, where three latest-generation fighters - including Saab's single-engine Gripen - continue to compete. We examine the process within India - the path to final delivery of an aircraft programme in that country can be tortuous as past experience has shown, even after a type has been selected. We also detail Eurofighter's reaction to their loss.

Elsewhere in the magazine, there is news on upgrades to GE engines, a further blow to the Lockheed Martin F-35, this time in Italy, and the latest on the sharklets row between Airbus and Aviation Partners.

In features, we take a spin into the world of civil helicopters ahead of Heli-Expo, with a flight test of the Sikorsky S-76D, a piece on how the global thirst for oil and gas is driving product development at the big five manufacturers, and a visit to the Niagara Falls, where one operator of sighseeing flights is pioneering new safety procedures in an area where there have been a number of tragic incidents involving tourists.

The two markets of the Middle East

By
Murdo Morrison
 on February 7, 2012 3:47 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

We have become used to talking of the booming Middle East aviation market, but recent events and announcements have shown that while the mega network carriers Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways continue to expand, things are tougher for airlines that rely much more on the regional market.

Royal Jordanian has just said that it will close five routes, cut frequencies to others and "reconsider its fleet size" as a result of rising fuel costs and the affect on tourism of the Arab Spring.

It's the classic double whammy; the squeeze from both ends. It says its operating costs went up 20% last year as a result of rising fuel costs, while at the same time traffic to a number of its destinations, Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain, Yemen and Syria among them, fell significantly.

Gulf Air is in a similar predicament. The Bahrain-based airline was already juggling with the awkward transition from a legacy cost-laden network carrier to a leaner, more regionally-focused player when along came the Arab Spring, and - even more damaging - the unrest in Bahrain itself. Traffic to the Gulf's main banking and trading centre, as well as to Gulf Air's many destinations in the wider Middle East, was hammered.

The Arab Spring has been seen as a good thing in the Western media: popular uprisings to get rid of tyrannical dictators. But for many of the carriers serving the region, the effect, in the short term at least, has been disastrous. Tourism is one of the major export earners for Tunisia and Egypt. For Bahrain, the Formula 1 Grand Prix (cancelled in 2010) and Saudi visitors crossing the causeway for leisure trips to the more relaxed and liberal Gulf kingdom help to keep the economy prosperous. Tourism to Syria - along with virtually all international trade - has been virtually suspended. Even Jordan has had its own scrape with popular unrest.

For many of these carriers, the problem is long term as well as short term. Fuel prices, might, just might, continue to creep down. And visitors might start to return to states that have begun to get themselves back in order after the turmoil of 2011. Even Egypt's victorious Islamist politicians have the pragmatism to realise that bans on beach bikinis and alcohol will have a dreadful effect on tourist traffic.

But the biggest long term problem is how these carriers restructure themselves for a new economic landscape. As tourists return to Mediterranean beaches and investors sweep into a still oil-rich Libya, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. The Middle East's second tier of airlines will have to ensure that they have the right business models and cost structures to respond.

 

Pentagon must mend its wasteful ways

By
Murdo Morrison
 on February 7, 2012 3:43 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Defence budget planners cannot be too careful. While arbitrary swings in fiscal priorities upset their models, acquisition system failures frustrate their maths. To compensate, they take what the system gives, and dispense with underlying strategy.

The US military's new budget request is a monument to strategic indecision. Caught between shrinking funding and galloping personnel and equipment costs, the budget makers eschewed bold decisions and made do.

Thus, the US Air Force is to "divest" its entire L-3 Communications/Alenia North America C-27J fleet. Most air forces do not know the luxury of owning 38 of probably the world's best small airlifters. But the USAF can dispense of them with a shrug.

Only the USAF has bought 14 high-altitude unmanned air vehicles: Northrop Grumman's RQ-4 Global Hawk Block 30. Only the USAF has decided to retire them before officially declaring them operational.

And only the US military can afford strategic indecision regarding the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II. It refuses to kill the programme, but will not allocate the funds required to approach the original ambitions.

The US military has no peer, but perhaps not in the way it is often thought. There is no force on this planet willing or able to waste so much money simply to avoid making hard decisions. The question is: can even the Pentagon avoid them forever?

It's Dassault's to lose

By
Murdo Morrison
 on February 7, 2012 3:40 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

New Delhi has moved its decade-long search for a next-generation combat aircraft to the final stage, and kept faith with Dassault. Closing the deal could transform Europe's fighter sector

 

India's prized medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) deal is there for France to lose, with its Dassault Rafale bid having smoked the rival Eurofighter Typhoon on one critical factor: price.

A European victory - potentially worth $20 billion - had been assured last April, when New Delhi rejected four other bidders. Reports since then had pegged the Rafale and Typhoon as running neck-and-neck, but all that changed on 31 January, when the former was confirmed as the lowest-cost compliant bidder for the 126-aircraft buy.

Questions remain as to the role played by the French government in ensuring that the Rafale International team could outbid its four-nation competitor and edge closer to securing its first export sale of the "omnirole" type. In an election year, this was a battle President Nicolas Sarkozy was determined to win. Equally, the Eurofighter consortium's third competitive defeat in little over a month will prompt further scrutiny of the Typhoon's prospects on the international stage.

The MMRCA contest has previously been described as a "must-win" opportunity, but while production of the Eurofighter is safe only until 2017 on current orders, further business is expected. Likewise, earlier contender Saab will also continue building its Gripen for some time yet, following its recent selection by Switzerland. That means all three European fighters will remain in production for several more years.

Boeing will do fine with its F-15 and Super Hornet lines, while Lockheed Martin will make do with potentially building more than 3,000 F-35s for the USA and its allies. Russia will also remain in the game with more RSK MiG-29, Sukhoi Su-30 and PAK-FA sales. Put simply, the global fighter sector will fly on.

What has really changed with the Indian decision is the dynamic in the fierce rivalry between the Rafale and Typhoon. Eurofighter's past dismissal of its peer as a sales flop will be turned on its head if Dassault clears negotiations with India. The deal would see it soar past the Typhoon's current export total of 87 aircraft for Austria and Saudi Arabia. With the possibility of also closing near-deals with Brazil and the United Arab Emirates, the French upstart could begin to draw on the nation's past global success with its Mirage line.

Cynics will point to Dassault's failure in converting past selections to contracts as offering hope yet for Eurofighter. But they should also consider its recent major Mirage 2000 upgrade deal with New Delhi, with whom the company has decades of business experience.

(This article appeared as the main leader in the 7 February issue of Flight International)

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