Don't just hang in there

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Hang in there. That was the advice business aviation was being given when the banking system went into meltdown in 2008. The industry has been hanging in there now for three and a half years. Things are getting better, but very slowly, and too late for some.

We have been here before. After 2001, the dotcom crash and 9/11 sent the US economy and business aviation into a nosedive. The recovery was rapid, building to an peak in 2008 - but that pattern is not being followed this time.

The US has begun a hesitant bounceback, and corporate profitability figures would suggest more companies ought to be spending some of their cash replacing ageing equipment. The trouble is, economic uncertainty is making them reluctant.

In Europe, traditionally business aviation's second market, things are going from bad to worse, with ailing economies threatening to drag down the strong ones. Few would venture the opinion that the eurozone economy will be in a better state in 12 or 24 months.

Also, business aviation got such a bad press in the crisis - whether it was car bosses flying on corporate jets to beg money from the government, or financiers blithely continuing to enjoy private air travel while others suffered - it has struggled to rebuild its image.

Only in the developing economies is there a bright spot. A new breed of billionaires in China and the
CIS is fuelling demand for top-of-the-range jets, while directors of young companies in Africa, Southeast Asia and Brazil are discovering the time-travel benefits of using business aviation.

Makers of large-cabin types have been less affected than those - like Cessna and Hawker Beechcraft - much more dependent on smaller jets. But so too have those who saw the writing on the wall and reoriented sales and support towards emerging markets.

EBACE is unlikely to see business aviation turn a corner. But - unlike the US automotive industry in the 1970s - it has not turned in on itself. Though cash is tight, virtually all manufacturers have continued to invest in new products. Business jets are among the most technologically advanced flying machines around. Brands remain strong.

The most successful airframers in the next few years will be those that furthest penetrate the virgin territories of the BRIC nations and beyond. As for the traditional markets of North America and Europe - well, hang in there if you can.

(This piece first appeared as the leading article in Flight International 8 May)

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