September 2012 Archives

I spent last Friday in Portugal, attending the official opening of Embraer's new twin factories in Evora. Here is my story that will appear in the 2 October issue of Flight International.

PORTUGAL MAKES IT AT LAST

The Portuguese have long looked enviously over their border to Spain's thriving aerospace sector, with its A400M final assembly line and raft of suppliers feeding into Airbus, Eurocopter and other EADS businesses - the industry is a shining light in the nation's ailing economy.
 Portugal, meanwhile, pulled out of a planned acquisition of the military transporter a decade ago, and lost its chance to participate in the programme.
Instead, Portugal's modest aerospace sector has been based on OGMA - a partly state-owned maintenance, repair and overhaul house - alongside a very small group of aerostructures and technology companies.
Bereft of a major manufacturer of aircraft systems, there has been little opportunity for an industrial or skills base to develop, and the global aerospace industry has consequently largely passed ­Portugal by.
However this is set to change, courtesy of Embraer. The airframer - based in Portugal's one-time colony Brazil and whose managers share a common language with their European cousins - formally opened its first European factories in the city of Evora on 21 September.
The side-by-side facilities will make, respectively, metallic and composite aerostructures for Embraer aircraft. Work will begin later this year and they are expected to reach production capacity in the second half of 2013.
Initially, the factories will focus on wings and horizontal stabilisers for the new Legacy 450 and 500 business jets, with other programmes such as the KC-390 military transporter likely to follow. The initial workforce will be 100, rising to 600 once the factory is at capacity.
Embraer is spending a total of €180 million ($230 million) on the plants - not a fortune in aerospace terms, but enough to get the Portuguese very excited: the inauguration ceremony was attended by the country's great and good, including president Anibal Cavaco Silva and members of the government.
They hope Embraer's investment - announced four years ago - will have both a symbolic and economic multiplier effect, finally giving Portugal the status of an aerospace manufacturing nation, and kick-starting a new sector of small and medium-size manufacturing and design enterprises in Evora and beyond.
It is not Embraer's first foray into Portugal's aerospace sector. Six years ago, the Brazilian company became the controlling shareholder in OGMA in a part-privatisation (initially with EADS, although it has since bought out its European rival).
Embraer has since awarded OGMA and another Portuguese company, EEA, contracts to design and manufacture fuselage sections for the KC-390. Lisbon has committed to buy six examples of the transport, which is due to fly in 2014, but has not yet placed a firm order.
Evora - a sleepy, if beautiful, former Roman settlement not far from the Spanish border and surrounded by rolling farmland - typifies many of the challenges of the Portuguese economy. Highly dependent on tourism, fishing and agriculture, the country, and rural regions in particular, face rising unemployment and depopulation. The cash-strapped government badly needs the higher-value exports and jobs that an aerospace sector offers. President Silva described the opening of the factories as "a special moment for Evora and the whole national economy".
For Embraer, the move into Portugal has a number of benefits. It shifts an element of its cost base into the eurozone and reduces its exposure to the dollar/real exchange rate, and while local aeronautical experience is lacking, the airframer can draw on a well-educated skills pool in a region where wage pressure is low.
Financial incentives from Portugal and the European Union were "important" but certainly "not the main reason" Embraer moved in, says chief executive Frederico Curado.
Around the gleaming new factories stand hectares of empty land. Embraer and the local authority hope smaller suppliers will be persuaded to set up shop, creating the country's first true aerospace cluster.
It may not quite be Seville - with its large Aeropolis technology park next to the giant production hangars of Airbus Military - but Portugal hopes Evora may be the cradle of a modest, but important, aerospace industry.

The aircraft cabin aloft has for some time now been the last refuge from mobile phone chatter, but soon even at 30,000ft we will be able - or fated - to learn that a fellow passenger is "on the plane".
Strictly speaking we are there already, of course: for several years now web surfing, email and phone calls have been available at altitude, and the first seatback-­mounted, credit card-accepting telephones were flying at least 20 years ago. But those early systems were so expensive to use they never caught on, and the latest versions are crude compared with on-the-ground service.
Better technology is about to change all that, though. A new generation of satellites will turn aircraft cabins into wireless hot spots that can handle 200 or more people running data-hungry laptops and smartphones. A new generation of in-flight entertainment systems promises to harness that speed to fabulous effect.
Those who remember the dreadful "entertainment" systems that piped fuzzy sound to our ears through plastic tubes can only delight in such dizzying advances. And revenue-hungry airlines may be licking their chops at the prospect of charging for the service.
The hitch, of course, is that experience to date suggests few passengers are prepared to pay for connectivity. Low-cost carriers may try it on, but others will probably decide, like many a coffee shop, that free wi-fi is a cheap way to make customers happy. ■

Aircraft designers and engineers have brought the modern airliner to a level of safety and reliability that could only have been dreamed of 30 years and more ago. The revelation that the line performance of entire airframes has reached the 10-7 failure threshold that was actually designed to define critical component acceptability, is only a milestone on a route the industry has been travelling steadily for a long time.
Perhaps it is time to ask whether there is any demand from the travelling public to raise the safety performance bar even higher, especially if they knew the price would be costlier travel. However, since air ticket prices are not - in practice - perceived as being linked to safety, the question has no valid answer, so perhaps the more apposite question would address whether the airlines, especially in these straitened economic times, see a benefit in investing more in safety.
The question is appropriate because, if airlines with a modern fleet do not face a commercial imperative nor a public demand to improve, why should they? If they are compliant with regulations they are safe from ­lawyers, even if they are not as safe as they absolutely could be for passengers. So where is the motivation to improve? A moral duty? That sounds like an expensive luxury right now, especially when airlines can argue they are already safer than they have ever been.
The answer is that improvement is so easy it is silly not to do it. Test pilot and Airbus adviser Harry Nelson, recognising what is essentially a dilemma for airline boards, has rolled out a "low-hanging fruit" list of simple, common-sense safety improvements just waiting for implementation.
Actually, many of them require action by air traffic control, airports and governments. Tailwind landings, for example, should not be forced on a crew for environmental reasons. The reason they are is that those who make the local rules do not know how much additional risk is involved in a decision that, to non-­expert eyes, does not appear to make much difference.
The real message for airlines here is that fourth-­generation aircraft are so good now that the failures, when they occur, are usually human performance lapses, and more often than not, failures of pilot knowledge or decision-making. Aircraft have changed massively to become as good as they are, but pilot training has not been matched to the demands of the modern task. The answer is simple. Airlines have to train pilots anyway, so train them for the job they do, not the job their forebears did 30 years and more ago.

Here's the latest Straight & Level column from the 25 September issue of Flight International. To subscribe to the magazine (in print, tablet or our new exciting digital format) go to http://tinyurl.com/d4t4f4x

Looking after number one
It is arguably the most iconic widebody airliner of all time and its latest version - now entering service - could make it one of the longest-lived. Yet opinions differ as to whether the Boeing 747 that started it all is a sorry hulk being left to rot away at the mercy of Seattle's unforgiving rain, or a lovingly kept piece of aviation history at the city's Museum of Flight.
What is not in dispute is that RA001 - veteran of 12,000 test flights - was neglected for many years in Boeing Field after it touched down for the last time in 1993. However, several readers of the Jalopnik blog have hit out at an entry which describes the aircraft as being
in a "pathetic state" and the "touch of shame" this brings
to those who helped create 1,400 747s.
One curator at the museum replies on the blog to insist that RA001 is a prize exhibit and is "well taken care of".
No one, however, argues that a lot of cash would be required to restore the aircraft to pristine condition, funds the museum does not have. One of those posting on the blog has no doubt as to who should stump up.
"Well, Boeing reported 2011 net income of $4.02 billion and gives out about $147 million in charitable contributions," suggests ranwhenparked. "Seems like helping out a local museum and saving a piece of their own heritage should be pretty much a no-brainer."

Cornish past-ies
Talking of museums, later this week, one of the UK's finest collections of vintage aircraft will fly to a new home. Coventry airport's Airbase is closing on 30 September, with most of the exhibits - including a Canberra bomber, Gloster Meteor T7 and Dragon Rapides - decamping to Newquay, Cornwall, where a new museum - the Classic Air Force - will open next March.
The collection is unusual in that most of its aircraft still fly and many, including the Meteor (pictured), will be getting to Cornwall under their own steam. Mike Collett, of the Classic Aircraft Trust, which owns the collection, says the decision to move to Cornwall was taken "with reluctance" but is "essential", because the area's tourist industry will generate additional income needed to keep the classics flying.

MPeasyJet
"This is your captain speaking: Order! Order!" Britain's MPs are used to jostling for seats during Prime Minister's question time and crowding into the division lobbies. Now they could be about to put all that practice to good use when it comes to flying on official business.
EasyJet has announced a new travel deal with the Houses of Parliament's travel management company, which the budget airline says "promises to provide affordable travel for MPs and peers and save money for British taxpayers".
Time was, flying on anything other than "Britain's favourite airline" would have been tantamount to flag-burning for a UK politician. But in today's climate of austerity, some might have to get used to hearing: "Those red boxes are too big for the cabin, sir. You're going to have to pay to check them into the hold."

Flippin' cheek
For sale. 1968 Cessna 172. One (not so) careful owner. To be fair to the vendor who posted this picture ad in Craigslist, it was a passing twister, rather than careless driving, that caused the aircraft to flip over. But why he thought snapping it resembling a dead pigeon would entice buyers is anyone's guess. 

 

Just spent three days in Dubai and Abu Dhabi interviewing some of the movers and shakers in the region's business aviation sector for our special which appears in our 4 December issue, ahead of that month's Middle East Business Aviation show.

The mood is, perhaps surprisingly, fairly upbeat. It is a long way from the heady, high double-digit annual growth of 2007 and 2008 - which saw a surge of speculative charter and management companies enter the market, anticipating continuing expansion. Most of them have disappeared. But for the companies that have survived, business is fairly steady: the Gulf's wealthy are still keen to charter big jets in particular.

I interviewed Ali Al Naqbi, founder of the regional association MEBAA, which organises the MEBA show. He still believes business aviation - in its strictest sense - is still in its infancy in the region. Yes, billionaires, government ministers and assorted royals love their large cabin jets. But US-style corporate aviation, where executives charter functional jets as pure business tools to make their working days more efficient, has not yet taken off and this can be seen in the fact that industry workhorses, such as Learjets, Citations and Hawkers, are almost invisible in this region, other than for perhaps medevac purposes.

One big issue in the Middle East is infrastructure and regulation. Other than in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and perhaps now Bahrain and Qatar, there is a dire shortage of FBOs. The laws which govern business aviation differ greatly among countries and the grey market - owners of private jets offering them for third-party charter despite not having the requisite approvals - persists. I'll be talking about all these problems in my feature package.

This week's Flight International has reports from both the Africa Aerospace & Defence show in Pretoria and the Airline Passenger Experience expo in Long Beach, California. We also take a look at consolidation pressure in the European MRO sector and, in news, have the latest on troubles for the GEnx and the safety milestone reached by modern jets.

You can subscribe to Flight International in print, digital or our exciting new tablet format at http://tinyurl.com/d4t4f4x

 

 

 

EADS has spent a decade trying to meld very different businesses into one, encountering countless political and cultural challenges - not to mention gargantuan egos - along the way. Now it could be about to embark on the whole exhausting process all over again. Will it be worth it - or even achievable - in the end?

Even though BAE Systems has been a long-term partner of EADS on a range of ventures - including Eurofighter, MBDA and, until 2006, Airbus - few had bet on a marriage proposal. Instead, the UK defence giant had been linked with Finmeccanica - the other major European player left on the sidelines when France, Germany and Spain consolidated their industrial champions to create EADS in 2000 - as well as with possible transatlantic suitors.

In fact, as BAE increasingly shifted its centre of gravity to the USA in the mid- 2000s - in the process abandoning much of its UK industrial infrastructure, including once-prized Airbus wing facilities in Broughton and Filton - many thought the company had turned its back on its home market, and Europe, in favour of richer pickings in North America.

That certainly looked so. A flurry of acquisitions from the late 1990s turned BAE (the "British" having been dropped from its name around when EADS came into being) into one of the USA's largest defence contractors - although usually as a first tier supplier or partner on domestically primed programmes.

But much has changed since the heady days of the Bush administrations' war on terror. The threat from fanatics and unstable states has not gone away, but defence budgets are shrinking, and questions are being asked as to whether the USA needs the five or more prime contractors that emerged from the "last supper" wave of consolidation in the late 1990s.
In Europe, on the other hand, smart money had been on EADS absorbing one or both of the French-based tier ones - Thales and Safran - or even the other aircraft manufacturer, family-run Dassault Aviation, in which EADS holds a big, legacy minority stake. Despite countless rumours over the years, nothing has transpired.

A merger with BAE, however, makes more sense - on the surface at least. EADS has long courted the US and UK defence markets, but with little success. With its biggest customer, Germany, retrenching, its defence arm - Cassidian - has few prospects of being anything other than a micro business, chipping at emerging markets in Asia and the Middle East. BAE remains as close as you can get to a national champion in the UK's relatively open military procurement market, while it offers EADS the chance of establishing a serious defence platform in the USA. With BAE having divested its civil businesses, there is virtually no overlap.

But that does not clear the way for a joining of forces. One of the biggest obstacles to a merger will be the US government. The "special relationship" with the UK allowed BAE's acquisition of Sanders in 1998 and United Defense in the mid-2000s. Imagine the backlash in Congress if either of these were to fall into the hands of a European company in which the French state has a shareholding - albeit diluted under the proposed 60/40 EADS/BAE ownership of the new entity.

The immediate reaction to the proposal in stock markets was one of scepticism that an alliance could yield real value if profitable US units had to be divested.

Even at home, a merger will throw up countless complications. It will be business as usual at EADS's non-defence divisions: Airbus, Astrium and Eurocopter. But the price of a 60/40 merger would be a substantial involvement by BAE's management team - and, by proxy, the UK government - in the way the combined group is run. EADS has until now kept two corporate headquarters - in Paris and Munich. New chief executive Tom Enders wants one HQ, but will he instead have to add London as a third?

A wider question is what effect a merger would have on the rest of the world, particularly in the USA, where Washington DC - and crucially Wall Street - might see a combined EADS and BAE as necessitating a fresh wave of consolidation among the US defence giants. As our Top 100 this week shows, save for a few high-profile recent acquisitions such as United Technologies' of Goodrich, the world's biggest players have remained largely the same for a decade. An EADS/BAE merger could spark further major changes to that status qu0.
 
(This first appeared as the Comment in the 18 September issue of Flight International)

Flight International's Straight & Level page at the back of the book has been a fixture for decades and has gone through many guises since the days of Roger Bacon, a character invented by Flight's then editor Mike Ramsden and continued under several editors, including yours truly, when the column used to be penned by one of our US-based journalists. It's still going, although Roger Bacon, sadly, has mostly hung up his quill pen, only to come out of retirement to challenge would-be Total Aviation Persons in our festive quiz.

If you don't get a chance to read the magazine - in print or tablet - here's a taste of what you're missing from 18 September.

Over the sea and far, far away

One has to worry about the USA's international perspective when the nation's Customs & Border Protection agency informs us its Global Entry Program has "officially expanded to the other side of the world... at... locations in Shannon and Dublin, Ireland".

The other side of the world? Maybe to Columbus. How do they describe Mumbai? Out of this world? Australia? Another galaxy, far, far away?

 

It  be 50 too

While the UK's last cold war bomber, the Avro Vulcan, was wowing the crowds at Farnborough this summer, its US counterpart, the B-52 Stratofortress, remains fully operational half a century after its maiden flight from Seattle.

To mark the 50th anniversary, renowned military author Martin Bowman has compiled a fascinating account (£16.99/$34.95 Pen & Sword) of the "BUFF" (big ugly fat fella) that charts its conception, testing and development and extensive in-theatre action, which extends from Vietnam, through the Balkans and both Gulf Wars to Afghanistan and the recent Libyan crisis.

With the Stratofortress expected to remain in action for at least another three decades, no other US bomber has been called upon to remain operational as long.

Bowman's words are accompanied by a selection of photos and useful appendices listing units, losses and preserved airframes. A detailed index and colour drawings top off a worthy tribute to this eight-engined wonder.

 

Zep pilgrimage

Monarch is running another Aviation Enthusiasts' Day on 12 October, this time to Friedrichshafen. Guests will fly from London Gatwick to the home of the Zeppelin on board an Airbus A320 - rather than one of the town's famous airships. Monarch launches a new route to the southern German resort in December.

Places, at £159.98 per person, are limited and can be booked by calling Monarch reservations on + 44 (0) 843 2271312. For more details, visit: flightglobal.com/monarch

 

The cruel C

Airbus is keen that we refer to its current narrowbody family as the A320ceo to distinguish it from the new engine option A320neo. Aviation blogger Vero Venia has taken to calling the A320ceo the "clunker engine option". How ungracious. We hope it won't stick.

Ascent of Man

Brian Johnson, ex-director of civil aviation for the Isle of Man, writes to tell us that he will be showing our Straight & Level picture story from the 4-10 September issue about the island's lunar ambitions to friends on a trip to the USA, while handing them "our one pound paper note to remind them of progress so far".

He adds: "With our steam trains, horse-drawn trams and Victorian electric tramway, the Moon is the obvious next step for the island's aviation sector."

 

Getting into bed

This rather worrying piece of information arrives in our inbox via the ever reliable Google Translator:

"...Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia and China are studying the possibility of manufacturing large cargo helicopters and wide-body aircraft sex."

Flight International's tablet edition for the iPad this week (18 September) is one of our best yet. The Aerospace Top 100 gets a new visual treatment and remains one of the most fascinating pieces of research we do each year. With our long-standing partners PwC doing the number-crunching, it reveals which aerospace manufacturers were in the money in 2011 and which sectors were the most profitable. There are some names you wouldn't expect high up the rankings too, often unglamorous firms - such as Precision Castparts - who have been very successful at building a solid business model down the supply chain.

We also have all the reaction and analysis to the EADS/BAE Systems merger proposal - why it makes sense to both companies, where the stumbling blocks will be and how it will affect Airbus.

And we have a report on ILA, which - if you subscribe to or buy this issue of the tablet edition - comes packed with added value, including video reports and interviews by our journalists at the show and dozens of stunning images from the air and static displays.

I've been following the fortunes of EADS - and to a lesser extent BAE Systems - for over a decade but news of merger talks between the two European giants came as a surprise to me and I think most analysts

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/bae-systems-eads-in-merger-talks-to-create-100bn-turnover-business-376423/

We'll be analysing and commenting on what a potential merger could mean in detail in the 18 September issue of Flight International (available to buy and to tablet subscribers on the iPad on Saturday 15th), but here are some very initial thoughts:

1. The merger will give EADS long-sought access to the US defence market. BAE has since the mid-2000s been a major US defence contractor. But will it help EADS achieve its ambition of becoming a fully-fledged US prime? Giving the Franco-German giant access to some of the more sensitive parts of BAE's defence technology assets may fall foul of the US's security watchdogs. Will they have to be divested? The merged business will certainly have scale in the US defence market. But will it be allowed to remain in the most strategically-important and profitable niches?

2. This certainly fits with EADS's strategy of diversifying its business away from over-dependence on Airbus, which has been rather frustratingly growing in terms of revenue and profitability for EADS. Ironically, BAE divested its 20% stake in Airbus six years ago and the former BAE Airbus operations in Broughton and Filton are now owned by EADS. The merger will not affect the Airbus business.

3. Where does this leave the other big European aerospace and defence groupings? Thales and Safran have long been talked about as possible marriage partners and brides for EADS, although there are supply chain competition issues. Dassault Aviation - in which EADS has a legacy 46% stake - will remain an independent business as long as scion Serge Dassault is alive and well. After that...who knows? As for Finmeccanica, it expensively bought into the US market with its acquisition of DRS. That has proved a difficult assimilation and the Italian company is hurting financially. Italian defence budget cuts and problems with 787 production have not helped. Finmeccanica and BAE were seriously flirting with eachother a decade ago after being excluded from the tri-nation merger that created EADS. An even bigger EADS/BAE would leave Finmeccanica even more isolated.

4. Don't forget the UK. EADS has always wanted to be seen as a part-British company in Europe's biggest defence market. This would make a merged EADS/BAE truly the UK aerospace and defence "champion" and marginalise other pretenders to the throne such as Finmeccanica (owner of AgustaWestland among other businesses) and Thales.

5. Who gets to run it? This would be almost the most interesting show in town as executives jostle for top positions in a clash of corporate cultures. Tom Enders, as CEO of the 60% shareholder, would presumably have to be boss. But where would the Brits fit in? And where would the headquarters be. Twelve years on from the creation of EADS, the European company still has two HQs - in Paris and Munich - and many duplicated functions. It is even registered in neutral Amsterdam to avoid conflict on the two sides of the Rhine as to where the company should file its accounts.

 

 

You can read an in-depth report on South African aerospace - ahead of the country's air show AA&D - in the 11 September issue of Flight International. The package includes profiles on Denel Aerostructures, private defence contractor and developer of the AHRLAC reconnaisance aircraft Paramount, Eurocopter Southern Africa and Cobham Southern Africa. There are also features on the country's business aviation sector, South African Airways and prospects for the AA&D show itself.

The best way to view our South African special is on the tablet edition of Flight International (download it on your iPad), or, failing that, the print edition of the weekly, available in all good newsagents or on subscription. You can also read the articles at flightglobal.com/southafrica

South Africa has not always had good press since the heady days of the new democracy, when the Rainbow Nation - under saintly Nelson Mandela - embraced reconciliation and joined the community of nations. The lifting of sanctions saw an inflow of investment and the economy soared. No longer a pariah on a war footing with its neighbours, Africa's mightiest country, its military and its aerospace industry had the chance to be a force for good in a continent often in turmoil, providing peacekeeping forces and the means for friendly states to keep the peace themselves.

Since then much has changed. A successful 2010 World Cup aside, most headlines have been bad: AIDS, crime, corruption and cronyism and a widening gap between rich and poor. The country - rich in resources and Africa's most developed economy - has been through a rough patch since the downturn in 2008. Despite new kit the armed forces have complained of underfunding, and the aerospace sector has struggled.

Now, Africa's status as a global growth region could be South Africa's salvation. Long the forgotten continent, raw material exports and a flurry of investment are raising living standards and boosting government spending. South African companies are meeting some of that demand on their doorstep with - among other things - aerospace equipment. It could get the country's economy - and aviation industry - flying again.

(This first appeared as a leading article in the 11 September issue of Flight International)

The jumbo jet is among the great legacies of the 1960s to modern air travel - but so is the hub. Through hubs, the US carriers of yesteryear discovered they could vastly broaden their network simply by connecting city pairs through a single key point.

The arrival of long-range, economical types such as the Boeing 777-300ER and the Airbus A380 has set the stage for the Gulf region to become the world's ultimate hub. From this strategic point, long-haul aircraft can fly to virtually any destination, bringing together a staggering array of potential city pairs.

The alliance between Australia's Qantas Airways and Dubai's Emirates is a sharp reminder - if one were needed - of the Arabian peninsula's immense potential. Qantas has suffered losses on international routes for years, with some of the punishment likely coming from Emirates and its Gulf neighbours. The pressure eventually became too great for Qantas, hence what can be viewed as a capitulation. Although Qantas will benefit from its wide-reaching deal with Emirates, which covers everything from codesharing to air miles, the real winner here is Emirates.

Provided regulators approve the deal, in one stroke Emirates has neutralised a major competitor between Australia and Europe. At the same time, Qantas's decision to abandon Singapore in favour of Dubai for its European services gives Emirates an excellent feed for more than 70 European destinations. Operating on its own, Qantas could never have hoped to even remotely match this powerful network.

Emirates also gains access to Qantas's strong domestic network, challenging the in-roads Etihad has made via co-operation with Virgin Australia.

As with all major changes in the industry, there are losers. By abandoning Singapore, Qantas has raised questions about the city state's viability as a hub.

Customers, of course, stand to benefit. If passengers want to fly from Sydney to Rome on Qantas today, they are obliged to stop in Singapore, fly onwards to London or Frankfurt, and change aircraft for a flight to Rome. Under the new deal they stop once at Dubai's swanky Terminal 3, switch aircraft, and are on their way.

In Europe and Asia, legacy carriers will struggle to compete with the sheer convenience of one-stop travel offered by the Gulf's "big three" carriers.

Therefore, tie-ups between legacy carriers and the big three look likely to be ongoing. The Gulf is simply too well located to be ignored.

(This first appeared as the leading article in 11 September Flight International)

Neil Armstrong's Moon walk heralded a new era for humanity, and stoked feverish speculation about future possibilities. Lunar colonies! Mining for infinite energy! Next stop, Mars! But the 12th and last person to set foot on the Moon did so in 1972, only three years after Armstrong and Edwin Aldrin's landing. Only eight of the 12 survive, the youngest of them - Harrison Schmitt - having been born in 1935.

The Apollo programme ended without successor, not even from rival nations striving to repeat the experiment. There has not been so much as a lunar sample return mission since.

The technology to put people on the Moon may have existed for more than four decades, but the expense remains considerable. The Apollo programme cost roughly $110 billion in current dollars: an enormous investment. In the days of the Cold War, when proving absolute dominance in space was viewed as a national imperative, such programmes could be justified, but those days are long past.

Today, talk of lunar colonies and men on Mars lacks the urgency it once had. NASA is saddled with requirements to develop the giant Space Launch System (SLS) - capable of putting more weight into orbit than any launch vehicle before it - and the crewed Orion capsule, which could one day send a crew to Mars. Developing a full-scale SLS/Orion pair could cost $35 billion or more. Building a capable lander and embarking on an actual crewed mission will cost several billion more. A new Moon landing could cost less than half the previous ones, but at about twice NASA's annual budget - which is unlikely to increase any time soon - it would come at the cost of highly capable robotic probes. It cost only $2.5 billion to put the rover Curiosity on the surface of Mars.

The focus has moved away from crewed spaceflight. People will remain fascinated by the stars and how to reach them but, for now, launching humans far beyond Earth orbit has neither popular support nor the urgency of a national security mission.

There is little doubt that humanity will one day become an interplanetary species. But in the age of the Curiosity rover and flat budgets, sending people on missions far beyond Earth is hard to justify. Thus, Neil Armstrong's pioneering step will lose none of its magic in the decades to come, and will endure not just as a moment in history, but as a benchmark of what can be made possible.

(This first appeared as the main Leader article in the 4 September issue of Flight International) 

In this week's (4 September) issue of Flight International, we take a look at Germany's aerospace industry ahead of the country's air show, ILA, next week. There are features on Eurocopter's plans to invest in its Donauworth facility, engine-maker MTU's increasing move into the commercial market and how work on new aircraft programmes is boosting Liebherr's landing gear business. We also examine how EFW is making a success of MRO, despite its high-cost location in Dresden, and flight test Ruag's revamped Do 228 in its new NG guise as a special mission aircraft.

In news, we look at how Boeing has activated a temporary 787 surge line and the investigators' report into the 2009 ditching of a Westwind business jet in the Pacific.

Plus: we pay tribute to first man on the Moon Neil Armstrong and, in Straight at Level, explain why the Isle of Man is the fourth most likely nation to set foot on the lunar surface again.