January 2013 Archives

We are delighted to launch the fifth annual Flightglobal Achievement Awards, our search for the most admired and inspiring individuals in the aviation and aerospace industry.

The awards recognise the contribution of a person - or small group of individuals - to industry breakthroughs or great moments in aviation and the search has begun for 2013's worthy winners.

Last year, at a ceremony at the Farnborough air show, legendary aeronautical engineer and test pilot Bernard Ziegler won the prestigious Flightglobal Lifetime Achievement Award in recognition of his outstanding work in the field of fly-by-wire and flight envelope protection at Airbus during his 25-year service.

Billypix Last year's winners receive their awards at TAG Farnborough Airport

This is your chance to nominate your heroes of the past 12 months in four categories: Leader of the Year, Aviator of the Year, Innovator of the Year and the Lifetime Achievement Award.

From your nominations we will draw up a shortlist, and from that you will have the opportunity to vote for the winners.

The deadline for nominations is 8 March.

Making a nomination could not be easier. Simply click on the nominate button below and email the reasons behind your choice in no more than 300 words. Include any relevant web links.

Find out more and nominate your:

• Leader of the Year
• Aviator of the Year
• Innovator of the Year
• Lifetime Achievement Award

 Once again, as part of the Awards we will also proudly name the Boeing Engineering Student of the Year. Students can nominate themselves or be nominated by their professors. View the criteria and enter here

Citywings it over lookalike logo
While American Airlines is deflecting brickbats over its
new stars and stripes colour scheme, the lesser-known Isle of Man regional carrier Citywing has been sidestepping its own livery quagmire.
Citywing emerged after management bought out Manx2. But its new bird logo, based on the Manx shearwater (Puffinus puffinus), bore an uncanny resemblance to that of Ecuadorian carrier TAME, whose chief was not best pleased when we mentioned it to him.
Faced with the possibility of being engulfed by, er, "Shearwatergate", Citywing hastily acknowledged the similarities and said it would make a few adjustments to distinguish its insignia.
The result is that there's a markedly different bird flying on Citywing's Let L-410s.
Can't be certain which species inspired TAME but any ornithologist will tell you that Ecuador has its own shearwater (Puffinus subalaris) on the Galapagos Islands.

Below (from top) are the new, the previous and the TAME logos.

Dream one-liners
It's no laughing matter for Boeing or its customers, but the Dreamliner's grounding because of dodgy electrics is... er... sparking its share of humour.
Such as the news presenter, who might have wished he could do a second take, after declaring the "787 programme is up in the air right now".
Or, what do you call passengers scared to fly in the Dreamliner? Battery chickens.
One colleague remarked of the revolutionary transport: "Just be grateful they didn't call it the Firebird."
And there is speculation the NTSB may compel Boeing to replace the battery's aircraft.

Big name in Gulf
Qatar's new hub at Doha is the latest project to bear the name of Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, emir of the Gulf state, but even this $15 billion bit of Arabian aggrandisement falls short of the egomania demonstrated by another local Hamad.
Because over the water from Hamad International airport, 300km east, lies the island of Al Futaisi, an unremarkable feature of Abu Dhabi geography were it not for the eccentric Hamad bin Hamdan al-Nahyan. Hamad has contributed to the beautification of the desert landscape by carving his name in block capitals (above), 2km long and 500m tall, in a sort of Arial Narrow font version of the Nazca lines.
It's possible, of course, he'll dig a colossal arrow pointing west towards the new airport, in a supersized version of the one painted on a London gasometer to stop Heathrow-bound pilots landing at Northolt.
But given that the car-crazy Hamad also built a Jeep the size of a house, don't hold out for any intervention by logic.

Chop the pilot
Lennart Rooth sends in this snap from Stockholm Arlanda airport. "For a long time people in the industry have said that one day we will have pilotless aircraft," he writes. "Has that day arrived?"

The following first appeared as a Flight International leader in our 29 January 2013 issue

Helicopter operations in densely populated urban environments are usually tightly regulated. They certainly are over London but the recent helicopter accident in the city's Vauxhall district has led local politicians to ask whether even more restriction is needed.
In the Vauxhall accident the aircraft was destroyed, the pilot killed, and one person on the ground died - hit by wreckage. Given that the casualty toll could have been greater if the wreckage had fallen a short distance from where it did, it is inevitable that a review of the status quo should take place, but that will happen anyway through the Air Accident Investigation Branch's inquiry.
Most helicopter operations over London are in transit, as the accident flight was until the pilot began to change his plans and head for Battersea heliport. The fact Battersea is the only permitted heliport in one of the world's great cities speaks volumes about London's cautious attitude toward rotary-wing access. Existing requirements on helicopter routeings, aircraft performance, and air traffic control clearance already constitute tight regulatory control.
This accident, whatever else emerges, was primarily the result of the marginal visibility and pilot judgement on whether it was safe to continue. It is the only fatal helicopter crash London has suffered, and no reason on its own to further restrict rotary-wing access.

The following first appeared as the lead Comment in 29 January 2013 Flight International

Aero India is a show to be not so much attended as survived. After navigating the torturous process of obtaining Indian visas, and paying extortionate amounts to profiteering Bengaluru hoteliers, on 6 February the world's defence aerospace sector will find itself in the dusty field outside Yelahanka air base. 
Even then, security guards tend to move around the entrances to the show from day to day. Inside the halls, delegates can look forward to battles with contractors and irascible show officials. A frustrated delegate can be forgiven for wondering if it is worth it. However, after a moment of reflection, the answer will be: yes.
For the next decade India offers a unique window of opportunity for large-scale defence aerospace sales. Although the Indian air force has some reasonably modern types, such as the Sukhoi Su-30MKI and Dassault ­Mirage 2000H, large portions of its combat fleet are more suitable for a museum dedicated to Cold War airpower.
New Delhi, for example, operates more than 150 ­MiG-21s and 88 MiG-27s. Its fleet of 120 Sepecat Jaguars is still functional, but badly in need of upgrading.  Meanwhile, New Delhi's Hindustan Aeronautics HS 748 transports is antiquated by even the most generous standards.
Progress is being made to rectify obsolescence issues. Negotiations are under way between Dassault and the Indian government for 126 Rafale fighters to replace the MiG-21s. The Rafale was the last fighter standing in the mammoth medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) competition that had its climax at the 2011 iteration of Aero India.
And New Delhi appears to have an insatiable appetite for other types beyond high-end combat aircraft. By the end of 2014, it will be the world's second-largest operator of the Boeing C-17 after the USAF. It has taken delivery of six Lockheed Martin C-130Js and is likely to order six more. A request for proposals to replace the HS 748s with 56 modern tactical transports is in the works.
In mid-2013, New Delhi will receive the first of eight P-8I Poseidon special-missions aircraft, which will greatly enhance its ability to project power into the vast oceans that surround the subcontinent. It has requirements for new maritime patrol aircraft and helicopters.
Aside from the sheer frustration of doing business in India, winning New Delhi's custom will come at a big price in the form of offsets. Foreign firms may baulk at supplying technology and know-how that could one day show up in competitive products, but the potential of India is too vast to ignore.

The 29 January edition of Flight International has an in-depth feature package on the Indian aerospace and aviation scene ahead of the country's main air show, Aero India.

Journalists from our Singapore bureau have visited New Delhi and other cities to look at India's current defence procurement shopping list and assess signs that the government is getting impatient with state champion Hindustan Aeronautics. They also try to explain India's complicated offset policies - no easy task - and examine the progress of some of its biggest industrial concerns are making in terms of breaking into the aerospace industry.

And with Kingfisher teetering on the brink and Air India losses continuing to mount, we ponder the health of India's once burgeoning airline sector. With a wave of start-ups emerging in the second half of the 2000s, did the industry expand too much and too quickly? Finally, why India is pouring cash into developing its crumbling airport infrastructure, and the country's ambitious designs on space.

Elsewhere in the issue, we have an update on the 787 grounding and analyse the proposed joint venture between Brazil's Embraer and Italy's AgustaWestland.

Plus: in Straight & Level: Citywings it over a lookalike logo, why Hamad is a big name in the Gulf and Dream one-liners.

Don't forget, you can read an enhanced version of Flight International on your iPad each week by opting to purchase a single copy through Apple, or subscribing to the tablet edition directly here www.flightsubs.com/1637

End of an era as tower tumbles
Peter Bish asks us to join him in mourning the passing of his office for many years, the 38.8m (127ft) control tower at Heathrow, which has just been demolished as part of the modernisation of the airport's Terminals 1 and 2.
The tower, along with the whole of the original Central Area, comprising Terminal 2 and the Queens Building, is being cleared to make way for the new "Heathrow East" mega terminal, now, confusedly, to be renamed Terminal 2. The current T1 faces the same fate as the old T2.
The Queens Building and what later became Terminal 2 were part of the original Frederick Gibberd red-brick buildings that were the nerve centre of the new London airport when they opened in 1955. But by the turn of the century, T2 had become cramped and unloved.
Progress, of course, but "sad news for us former Heathrow ATCOs", says Peter, who took this shot (right) on 10 January and is co-author of Heathrow ATC: The First 50 Years.

Power of eight
First it was the A380 and 787
- aircraft designations that
used the number 8, which is seen as lucky by the Chinese airlines it was hoped would make up a significant proportion of customers.
Then the G250 business jet became the G280, although Gulfstream had an added incentive after finding out that, in Chinese, the pronunciation of 250 is similar to the word for stupid.
Now even the airlines are "eight" it, with British Airways making a big play of the fact that its flights to and from Chengdu - to be launched later this year - will carry the numbers BA88 and BA89. It is also offering promotional fares of £508, although its faith in the power of the magic number does not go so far as to give seats away for £8.
And there is no truth in the rumour that Willie Walsh is changing the airline's name to British Eightways in a bid to lure Chinese passengers.

All talk
Clive Lawrence has an answer to Peter Martin's question "What does it mean?" about a piece of management-speak from our interview with Volvo Aero executives - Yuckspeak #924 (Flight International, 8 January).
 "My Babelfish tells me: despite not being able to change anything, they are trying to please all the people all the time," says Clive.
He adds: "As for who speaks like this: try any politician."

Ryan hot air
It has been dubbed the worst job in PR - by none other than Michael O'Leary, the man who is doing the recruiting. Ryanair has drawn up a shortlist of candidates to replace Stephen McNamara as head of communications for the frills-free airline.
Scathing wit, thick skin and endless energy are doubtless attributes for the "brave soul" O'Leary says he wants for the "high profile and incredibly overpaid" challenge.
Business class travel definitely not among the perks.

(The article below first appeared as a leader in the 22 January 2013 issue of Flight International)

Pentagon procurement chief Frank Kendall is directing the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) to explore the possibility of developing a new prototype attack helicopter. Such an effort could present an opportunity for the USA to reassert its dominance in the rotary-wing industry after decades of malaise. Indeed, the last successful clean-sheet US military helicopter design was the Boeing AH-64 Apache.
Here is an opportunity for the Pentagon to invest in revolutionary new technologies such as high-speed compound helicopters, potentially offering big leaps in range, payload, speed and efficiency. Such progress has been sadly lacking in the rotary-wing world since the 1960s. But a higher degree of risk must be accepted if engineers are to be free to pursue game-changing advances. With careful analysis and design, programme risk can be reduced; it is, however, inherent in programmes that push the technology's limits.
Even if they do not result in the originally intended platform, the advanced technological capabilities, enhanced skills and expanded knowledge base developed could provide a foundation for future programmes, reducing future risk. And there would almost certainly be fallout technologies with other applications.
The Pentagon could use this exploratory effort not only to revolutionise rotary-wing technology but also to invest in future national technological capability.

(The following article first appeared as the main leader in 22 January 2013 Flight International)

The US Federal Aviation Administration acted correctly to ground the Boeing 787 because of fears over battery fires, but the decision raises questions about the integrity of a certification process that declared the 787 airworthy less than 18 months ago.
The grounding seems at once slightly unfair and yet appropriate. Why unfair? With all new aircraft there are problems in service that cannot be anticipated in the controlled environment of a certification trial. But the 787's unique high-power electrical system means that even the slightest glitch can raise concerns about onboard fires and containment measures.
The FAA's certification process has always missed small problems that can only be discovered after an aircraft encounters the random conditions of a diverse group of operators. Hans Weber, owner of aviation consultancy Tecop, recalls how airlines protested against the initial reliability of the Boeing 747-400, especially in the galleys where a burner tended to melt the aluminium coffee pot. That glitch also posed a fire hazard, Weber says, but the FAA never felt the necessity to intervene.
On United's first long-distance 777 passenger flight, crews found a passenger door frozen shut upon landing. A small channel of moisture inside the doorframe had gone undetected during flight testing.
What makes the 787 different is the severity of a few of its "teething" issues. A contained engine explosion in July and a battery meltdown and associated fire in January are serious safety alarms no-one expects after airworthiness certification. Both incidents triggered probes by the US National Transportation Safety Board, which usually focuses on incidents involving injuries and fatalities. And now the 787 is grounded around the globe while the battery fire investigation continues.
Airlines are rightfully demanding fuel-efficiency gains, driving manufacturers to design ever-increasing levels of performance from the turbofan and electrical system. On the 787, both of these systems are operating at extreme conditions never before experienced in commercial operation. Hence, even small mistakes - such as, say, switching to a lead-free coating and inadvertently triggering a contained engine failure - can have unexpectedly severe consequences.
The airworthiness process is not designed to screen for the risk of every random fault. As airframers assume more performance-driven risks, the kind of regulatory interventions required for the 787 are likely to become more routine.

There is just one big story this week and we sum it up with the coverline GROUNDED...CONFOUNDED over a photograph of the ANA Boeing 787 forced to make an emergency landing after a battery malfunction. We examine the catalogue of events that convinced regulators around the world to ground the Dreamliner and ask what happens now?

There are countless questions to be asked. Among them: what went wrong with a certification process that saw fit to pass an aircraft design as safe to fly passengers, and then one year later ground these same aircraft. It is one that we attempt to answer in this week's leader (see separate blog entry: Raised stakes).

Also in the 22 January issue, how a late A320 deal pushed Airbus past the 900 gross order mark for 2012, well above its original target of 650 units; the latest on the Red Wings Tu-214 accident investigation; and why the Pentagon is dropping the F-35's performance bar.

In our features section, we look at how the NH Industries NH90 performed in its Italian combat debut in Afghanistan, and the possibility of the USA commissioning a new military helicopter programme, a decade or so after the cancellation of the Boeing-Sikorsky Comanche.

Headline writers in the UK traditionally drool over the once-a-year opportunity to tear into the procurement acts of its Ministry of Defence, reporting as the government's National Audit Office (NAO) lets rip in its warts-and-all Major Projects Report.
While the newly published version for the 2011-2012 financial year does not exactly disappoint in its detail, MoD-bashers might have been surprised to see an in-year cost spike of a mere £468 million ($750 million). Hardly peanuts during a time of financial hardship, but the numbers reveal that estimates of future fuel costs for the Royal Air Force's Voyager tankers and an export-levy payment linked to Europe's A400M transport account for the vast bulk of the increase.
Where is the programme crisis of past years? Of course, the government axed the report's enfant terrible - the Nimrod MRA4 maritime patrol aircraft - in its 2010 Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR), instantly improving the situation. But if defence secretary "Forensic" Philip Hammond is to be believed, real transformation is now being seen at the project level.
The NAO report also points to looming capability gaps which have yet to emerge in other parts of the "air domain" as a result of the SDSR's cuts. More on this will emerge after the body completes an independent assessment of the MoD's 10-year equipment plan. That, again, might just make for less comfortable reading.

(This first appeared as leading article in 15 January 2013 issue of Flight International)

In the span of only a few days, Boeing and the entire aerospace industry saw what happens when ground-breaking technology and safety fears collide on the modern public stage. Nearly as fast as white, wispy smoke issuing from the underbelly of a Japan Airlines 787 on the ground in Boston, this news was broadcast in varying tones of alarm around the world: a lithium-ion battery supplying energy to the auxiliary power unit had exploded on the ground, igniting a fire nearby that was extinguished after a firefighter was injured.
Few other relevant facts are available while the incident remains under investigation by US and Japanese safety teams, but that information was enough to send Boeing's share price plummeting by almost 6% in the following 48h. In the absence of hard facts, investors are likely to be worried that the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) will recommend design changes that may be costly to Boeing's bottom-line in the short term and damaging to 787 order backlog in the long term.
The battery fire came only weeks after the 787 was knocked for electrical system malfunctions now known to be traced to a faulty batch of circuit boards, and five months after an engine failure now traced to a poorly chosen anti-corrosion treatment on the fan mid-shaft.
The 787 entered service 15 months ago; 50 have been delivered to operators. Until now, known examples of cancelled flights and delayed deliveries caused by technical glitches were easily written off by most investors and the public as the normal teething issues they were. However, an onboard fire caused by a battery powered by lithium ions is not so easily brushed aside. It may be found that the fault is not one of design but of execution in the manufacturing or in maintenance of the battery, as was discovered with the faulty circuit boards and engine coating. But Boeing may not get off so easily even then. The measures designed to prevent the ignition of a fire, even in the event of errors by execution, must again be scrutinised. It is now Boeing's task to prove to the NTSB and the US Federal Aviation Administration how such a fire can never happen again.
That is the short-term problem. The long-term one is revealed in the fluctuations of Boeing's stock price. The airworthiness of the 787 was certificated to the highest standards for safety of nearly any industry. But if investors - and, indeed, the public - lose faith in the certification process, airframers may be unwilling to make similar technical gambles when introducing new aircraft, even if the technology promises clear benefits.

(This first appeared as the main leading article in 15-21 January 2013 Flight International)

This week's Flight International has our annual analysis of the previous year's commercial aviation safety record, with David Learmount and our colleagues at Flightglobal's Ascend consultancy examining the statistics and accident details for signs of long-term trends or important lessons that are not being learned.

It makes fascinating reading. On the plus side: 2012 saw the lowest number ever of airline accident deaths. However, there is a concern that this represents a statistical anomaly rather than a step-change in safety awareness. Although the industry's safety record remains excellent, there are still worries that pilot misjudgment accounts for a high proportion of the crashes that occur. As Learmount urges, the solution seems to be that a fundamental review of the knowledge and skills required by the modern airline pilot is required. Sadly, that does not appear to be happening.

Elsewhere in the issue, there is a special feature on MRO in the Middle East, ahead of that region's main event for that sector. Among the areas Michael Gubisch looks at are the ambitions of industry players - both OEMs and local providers - to establish engine maintenance capability in the Gulf, and prospects for EgyptAir's technical division, which is rebuilding its market two years after the disruption of the country's revolution.

In news we look at Embraer's plans for its revamped E-Jet range, the Dreamliner backlog and the three-way contest for the UK's SAR contest.

And remember, the best way to enjoy Flight International these days is on the iPad. Hundreds of subscribers and purchasers have already made the switch, although you can also choose to continue receiving your magazine in print too. Details on  how to subscribe on www.flightsubs.com/1637

Were there any doubts, the timid and short-sighted compromise deal that averted the "fiscal cliff" on 1 January proved that the legislative machinery of Washington DC will remain broken for some time, with potentially disastrous consequences for US aerospace.
The deal achieved some clarity over near-term tax policy, but only delayed a day of reckoning for defence spending from the effects of a plainly ill-conceived budget-cutting drill known as "sequestration".
Moreover, achieving consensus on a sensible approach to reducing US defence spending intelligently is not likely to become easier during the interim.
On New Year's Eve, a now permanently gridlocked US legislature postponed the sequestration trigger by two months in order to resolve a raging and previously intractable dispute over tax policy.
But in two months' time, there could be an even more passionate disagreement over raising the federal debt ceiling, set to reach crisis point around that time.
That might leave the military's budget planners in a scenario perhaps even worse than if the budget sequester had already been activated, and not knowing until mid-way through the fiscal year whether or not between 9.4 to 11.4% of the defence budget must somehow be wiped from the ledger by year-end.
It was never supposed to be like this. As a budget-cutting device, the concept of sequestration was invented by Congress in the mid-1980s to curtail deficit spending by a decentralised appropriations process. In that context, sequestration was supposed to activate automatic budget cuts if approved spending levels exceeded a predetermined cap, but, in practice, legislators simply suspended the rule rather than face the consequences of their own lack of discipline.
Sequestration was revived in August 2011 when Congress almost defaulted on federal debt rather than agree to make concessions on spending cuts with the Obama administration. The Budget Control Act of 2011 required a select committee of lawmakers to agree  at least $1.2 trillion in cuts by November 2011, but the group failed. That activated the provision requiring the Treasury to begin sequestering authorised funds to federal agencies totalling $1.2 trillion over 10 years.
The US military should be expected to review spending levels nearly four years after completing one war in Iraq and winding down another in Afghanistan. But the arbitrary, across-the-board reductions imposed by sequestration are not the way to do it.

(The above first appeared as a leading article in Flight International 8 January 2013) 

According to Flightglobal's Ascend consultancy, 2012 was an anomalous year for world airline safety. It was so good compared with all previous years that it is unlikely to be equalled for some time, let alone beaten, Ascend predicts.
That does not mean airline safety performance will inevitably get worse. Indeed, it will probably continue, albeit gradually, to get better, but only according to a five-year - or even decade - moving average.
The logic behind this reasoning is simple. The figures, derived according to commonly accepted criteria for airline fatal accident rates, imply that 2012 was almost twice as safe as 2011, the respective rates being one fatal accident every 2.3 million flights compared with one every 1.4 million. Since, over that two-year period, the industry did not implement any safety measures that could account for such a dramatic improvement, the conclusion is that the 2012 figures are a fluke, and the 2013 figures, when we review them in a year's time, are likely to look like a step backward.
As in recent years, 2012 accidents were almost all precipitated by pilot misjudgements or mismanagement. Pilots are the system's goalkeeper, but the system keeps banging own-goals past them. The solution can only be a fundamental review of the knowledge and skills needed by the modern airline pilot - but, troublingly, no such review is happening.

(The above first appeared as a leading article in Flight International 8 January 2013)

Here's a chance to read the Straight & Level page from Flight International, 8 January:

Boeing old before its time

Malaysia Airlines probably thought it had the perfect publicity opportunity when, to mark its 40th anniversary, it repainted one of its 737-800s in the carrier's original 1972 livery.

However, the Jakarta Post got the wrong end of the stick.

"MAS has brought back to service its old B737-800 aircraft... the first to fly between Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur on 1 October 1972," the newspaper told its readers. "A fresh coat of paint returned the plane to its former finery."
Yabba-dabba fly

A glider with retractable landing gear? We love the look of (but don't like pronouncing) the Swiss-built Archaeopteryx (below) - launched by the pilot running before pulling his legs into the cockpit. However, it does remind us of something Fred Flintstone might have dreamt up.

Topcliffe Style

It is not only the Chinese who have been adopting the Gangnam-inspired Carrier Style (see Straight & Level, 4-10 December 2012).

Rob Travers sent in this picture of two air cadets of 645VGS at RAF Topcliffe "trying to persuade a bemused looking Grob G109 instructor that he is about to be catapulted into the nearby River Swale".

Unlike the Chinese carrier, Liaoning, the station is not fitted with a ski-jump, notes Rob. "And even if it was, with a 42kt stall speed, a Vigilant would be better off going down the ramp."

Yule like this

Ian Goold spotted this on the website of New South Wales training outfit Pacific Flight Services: "Achek Yule completed his final test on 4 December and is now a qualified Grade III Flight Instructor."

"Perhaps appropriate that a guy called Yule should pass his December exams," he says. "But - better yet - with a name like Achek he really should be in airline maintenance."

Bad day at office

Show daily editorial offices are rarely salubrious - at their worst they are in some dark corner or subterranean boxes in the bowels of the convention centre, floors away from natural light.

But anyone looking for one of our competitors at the recent MEBA business aviation show in Dubai might have assumed things were really desperate - the newspaper's own helpful "How to find us" hall layout graphic showed them located in the gents toilets.

Prophet of profit

Some of the aviation-themed festive cards that winged their way to Budgie Towers caught our eye.

Alongside vintage aircraft and cockpit Santas, we liked MTU Maintenance's - the zeros of 2012 and 2013 cut out to show the engines of an A380, revealed in full when you open the card.

But our favourite in these worrying financial times was pre-owned business aircraft showroom The Jet Business's impassioned paean to the free market: "May this holiday season and new year bring the world a renewed acceptance and appreciation of capitalism."

Ah, nothing like a reminder of the true meaning of Christmas.

Yuckspeak #924

Peter Martin suggests this extract from our 27 November Swedish special is worthy of Yuckspeak: "[Volvo Aero] is very process-driven... while at the same time focused on building consensus among all stakeholders."

He remarks: "I have two questions. What does it mean and do people really speak
like this?"

In the first issue of every year, Flight International has run a forecasts feature, where our journalists and editors look at what is likely to happen in their particular sector or beat in the next 12 months. This time, in our 8 January issue, we've taken a slightly different tack, with our writers posing and answering 17 key questions. These are:

• Will the A350 fly this year?
• Who will launch an all-new 90-seat turboprop?
• Can we expect China to flex its military aviation muscles at the Paris air show?
• What will happen to the price of oil?
• Will this be the year somebody finally launches a supersonic business jet?
• Will the A380 and 747-8 acquire any new customers in 2013?
• Have we seen the end of the Hawker business jet brand?
• Can we expect a big strategic M&A move from EADS?
• What kind of accidents can we expect in 2013?
• With major economies wobbly, will cancellations take a bit out of Airbus and Boeing backlogs?
• Will Virgin Galactic carry passengers to space in 2013?
• Is Boeing going to launch the greatly anticipated 777X?
• Will London Heathrow get the nod for a third runway?
• Will Congress axe the F-35?
• Are zero accidents within our grasp?
• Will US airlines unleash a wave of regional jet orders?
• Will Airbus Military make deliveries of and receive orders for A400M?

If you are not already a regular Flight International reader, you can find out the answers to these, along with a feature on where Europe goes now with its emissions trading scheme, and David Kaminski-Morrow's extensive piece on the investigation into the Superjet demonstrator crash in Indonesia, by downloading the tablet edition of the magazine via the Flight International app on your iPad.

Alternatively, you can subscribe to the world's best aerospace weekly - in print, digital or tablet formats, or a combination of these - on www.flightsubs.com/1637