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Murdo Morrison: July 2012 Archives

Not all F-22 pilots are breathing easier

By
Murdo Morrison
 on July 27, 2012 7:01 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The US Air Force has officially concluded that the Combat Edge upper-pressure garment and its associated breathing regulator/anti-g (BRAG) valve, hoses and connectors are to blame for more than a dozen "hypoxia-like" incidents that have plagued the service's Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor fleet since 2008.

The USAF says it has a plan to test and implement fixes to the system by this September. But in the meantime, safety restrictions will remain in place on the Raptor. Based on USAF's conclusions, US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta is allowing the USAF to deploy the aircraft to Kadena, Japan. That entails a far longer duration flight away from the safety of airfields than is normally allowed under Panetta's restrictions.

But while the USAF says it has found the root cause of the problem, a number of F-22 pilots and engineers are unconvinced. Some see the service's latest move as merely a means to show some sort of progress. As one F-22 expert points out, the problem with the Combat Edge, fingered as the primary culprit, has been a known issue since at least 2006. In its problem-solving zeal, the USAF might have focused too narrowly on one particular symptom: the so-called Raptor cough.

Because of that tunnel vision, there remains the possibility that the service may have missed the true culprit behind these incidents. If so, we'll be hearing about more "hypoxia-like" incidents for a while yet.

(This appears as the second leading article in Flight International 31 July)

Beware complacency

By
Murdo Morrison
 on July 27, 2012 6:58 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

This time last year, Boeing Commercial Airplanes was struggling to nurse the 747-8 and 787 into service after long delays. While then-chief Jim Albaugh debated whether to re-engine the 737 or go for all-new, Airbus stole an A320 order and an A320neo commitment from traditional Boeing customer American Airlines.

Boeing's second-quarter results underscore how quickly things can change. Free from developmental distractions, the airframer hit a 12-year high with second-quarter aircraft deliveries, allowing the commercial division to drive quarterly revenues past the $20 billion mark for the first time. The 737 Max sparked a surge of orders in the year's first half, though the A320neo still has the lead on firm orders, by a margin exceeding 2:1.

Commercial demand is still booming and defence revenues are holding up despite the company's largest single customer - the US Department of Defense - being poised to enter an extended spending down-cycle. Yet there is an uncomfortable uncertainty. Boeing's commercial future success could be less secure than its formidable, $300 billion order backlog might suggest.

In the late 1990s, booming commercial demand drove record order backlogs, but Boeing's supply chain proved unable to handle a surge in production rates. There were struggles to increase production of the next-generation 737, in particular, as Boeing rolled out a new purchasing system for parts and, at its Wichita subsidiary, deployed a new automated fastening system for the fuselage.

Boeing, like any aircraft manufacturer, is only as good as its supply chain. Design problems, such as a faulty side-of-body, were only a small part of the issues that plagued 787 development. Far more troublesome were production system breakdowns ranging from fastener shortages to a supplier meltdown on assemblies of the aft and centre fuselage sections. To sustain upward momentum, Boeing must keep such episodes in the past. Nowhere is this more vital than the 787 programme. The Dreamliner will not generate a profit for 10 years, and that timeline is only possible if the programme can nearly triple output within the next 17 months.

The 787 final assembly system has been expanded with three separate lines. But the final assembly stage means nothing without a robust subassembly process, and that is where Boeing has struggled most.

The good news for Boeing's commercial division is that market demand is in its favour, which puts it in control of its destiny. We will soon find out how well it has learned from its own mistakes.

(This appears as the main leading article in Flight International, 31 July)


Oshkosh report and airline safety report

By
Murdo Morrison
 on July 27, 2012 6:28 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)


This week's Flight International has our six-monthly review of global aviation safety, with an analysis of the accidents and incidents that took place during the period, together with details of major investigative reports that came out between January and June. Our safety expert David Learmount also examines the increasing trend towards criminalisation of air accidents.

John Croft has been to Oshkosh where he reports on the big stories from the world's biggest general aviation event, including Cessna's new diesel-driven 182 - which features on our cover - and changes to the wings of Diamond's D-Jet single-engine jet.

We also have an analysis of Boeing's extremely impressive second quarter financials, with a warning in our leader for the aerospace giant not to become complacent about the strong performance of its commercial division. And there are details of USAF's fix for the F-22 hypoxia problem.

Is the defence GOCO a no-no?

By
Murdo Morrison
 on July 23, 2012 3:26 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
With the small task of eliminating a departmental budget deficit of £38 billion ($59 billion) having been ticked off by May, UK defence secretary Philip Hammond has turned his attention to reforming the nation's errant Defence Equipment & Support body.

Eyebrows were raised in parliament on 17 July, when Hammond said the ministry of defence would assess a favoured route of picking a private sector management company to head a government-owned, contractor-operated (GOCO) entity tasked with buying and supporting equipment for its armed forces.

With the Olympic security shambles - caused by the failure of a deal with civilian company G4S - fresh in their minds, opponents questioned the wisdom of pursuing such a strategy when the wider defence of the realm would be at stake. Union officials also spoke out about a further erosion of civil service jobs.

A privatisation of the kind that made Qinetiq bosses millionaires has already been ruled out, and backers point to the success of an arrangement under which Serco manages the Atomic Weapons Establishment.

There is no question that the UK's defence procurement practices are in need of transformation, with shortcomings evident across air, sea and land. But with the current administration having been accused of rushing through swingeing defence cuts with long-term consequences, this process must not be mishandled.

(This first appeared as the second leading article in 24 July Flight International)

Bring on the biofuels

By
Murdo Morrison
 on July 23, 2012 3:22 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Many airlines have conducted biofuel test flights over the past few years and, while individual fuel compositions may have varied, all used mixtures of conventional kerosene with biofuel, typically camelina or jatropha. Nothing more than such 50:50 fuel blends is permitted, anyway - and the biofuels were used in one aircraft engine while the other ran on Jet A1.

Every time, airline executives were wheeled out to say that the biofuel performed just as well as traditional, fossil-based kerosene, without posing major technical difficulties, and that the green crops offered a carbon-cutting way forward to more sustainable aviation.

Given that gas turbine engines are, in principle, quite simple powerplants, which can be fired with varying fuels (coal dust has, for example, been used for industrial gas turbines), such revelations come as no surprise. Instead, they begged the question: were biofuel test flights about improving scientific understanding, or perhaps more about spinning the PR wheel to establish an airline's green credentials?

However, when Lufthansa last year joined the group of airlines that have tested biofuel in flight, the carrier added value to the debate by employing the 50:50 biofuel blend on one aircraft over a six-month period, in order to assess any potential long-term impact on engine and fuel system health. None was found, and there seems to be little doubt that today's turbofans can be powered with biofuel in years to come.

Now, of course, a major challenge lies in finding ways in which such fuels can be produced in sufficient quantity at a competitive price. As the oil industry is not dependent on aviation, especially given the rising demand for other refinery products such as car fuel in the growing economies, airlines should not wait for their fuel suppliers to come up with the solution.

In the emergent paradigm, operators are not mere consumers, but are also responsible for sourcing and producing their own fuel. Fossil fuel may not run out soon, but it will become more expensive as living standards improve. Even if airlines choose to ignore the environmental argument - in the face of rising demand for greener transport in Europe, despite economic woes - they might still require alternative fuel to keep bills down.

Test flights have done their bit. Now, we need to see more biofuel sourcing projects, such as Lufthansa's engagement in camelina farming in Russia's Volga region or British Airways' support for a biofuel processing plant in east London. Biofuel works; let's get to work.

(This first appeared as the leading article in the 24 July issue of Flight International)

 


Flight International environment special

By
Murdo Morrison
 on July 23, 2012 2:52 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)


This week's Flight International (24 July) has a special feature on aviation and the environment, with updates on biofuel trials and the future of this alternative fuel, as well as pieces on the UK's great London airport challenge and electrical power for airliners.

In news, why Airbus is insisting the A350-800 is still very much a reality, the UK takes delivery of its first F-35B and plans its next order, and how the AF447 crash could prompt a review of stall-warning logic.

Subscribe to Flight International tablet edition

By
Murdo Morrison
 on July 23, 2012 2:29 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
After six months of trial, Flight International's tablet edition for the iPad is finally available. You can now subscribe to the tablet edition on its own, or in any combination with our print and web-based digital offerings - and special offers are available if you buy more than one format. You can transfer your can even sample single issues for £2.99 through the Apple App Store (the majority of back issues from 3 January through to 3 July are free). More on how to subscribe on www.flightsubs.com/1607

Our most ambitious ever air show coverage

By
Murdo Morrison
 on July 23, 2012 2:19 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)


There have now been two Farnboroughs and two Paris shows since Flightglobal really upped its game at the big annual air shows - taking our print dailies in-house and really adopting a joined-up approach to all our output. However, this Farnborough was by far our most ambitious effort. Not only did our biggest ever chalet include our new sales colleagues from the former Ascend data and consultancy business we bought a year ago, but our editorial output really shifted up a gear too. As well as five editions of Flight Daily News, we produced three, record-size interactive magazines and a host of multimedia offerings, including live streaming of the air display, in association with FLIR Systems. We also published - on site - the 17 August show report issue of Flight International. You can catch up with all our coverage on

www.flightglobal.com/air-shows/farnborough/

Missed how we covered Farnborough?

By
Murdo Morrison
 on July 23, 2012 1:55 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

If you didn't get a chance to see how we covered Farnborough, here are links to the three interactive dailies we produced. They are packed with stunning images from the aerial and static displays, video interviews and the biggest stories from our print Flight Daily News.

 

Day 1:

http://cde.cerosmedia.com/Farnboro_2012_day1/1P4ffc0bc1b2502012.cde

Day 2: http://cde.cerosmedia.com/Farnborough_2012_day2/1O4ffd503a77a5c012.cde

Day 3: http://cde.cerosmedia.com/Farnborough_2012_day3/1Y4ffdaa411fead012.cde


Sharing the spoils

By
Murdo Morrison
 on July 18, 2012 2:42 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
For a while a perfect storm of circumstances - a bulging sack of undisclosed 737 Max orders, the Qatari 787 display, a plateau for the A320neo, and the A380 wing issue - appeared destined to turn Farnborough into a lopsided love affair with Seattle.

That was right up until Airbus sprung its surprise package, as Cathay Pacific gave the A350-1000's naysayers a moment to reflect as it catapulted itself into prime position on the programme.

Cathay's credibility turns the airline into a much-needed ally for the redesigned -1000, the revamp of which - unveiled a year ago at the Paris air show - drew sharp criticism from the Middle Eastern customers who had signed up to its predecessor.

Barbed comments from the Gulf and a dearth of orders, in part linked to a two-year postponement to the development schedule, hardly helped support Airbus's conviction that its overhaul decision had been a good one.

But the Cathay agreement puts Airbus back on the offensive and sales supremo John Leahy insisted, in a dry-as-a-desert comment at Farnborough, that the airframer would build that "less capable" version for any customers who still wanted it.

His boss, Fabrice Brégier, also issued a defiant statement that the all-new aircraft would outperform current competitors and "any future derivatives", lobbing a provocative challenge at Boeing, which - amid the flurry of Max dealing - talked up the proposed 787-10X while keeping everyone guessing over the timetable of the 777X, even as prospective customers urged the US airframer not to dawdle on the decision. All of this means it is probably still too early to declare "game on" for the big-twin race.

The building momentum of the 787, particularly now that it is in service, is gradually turning up the pressure on Airbus, which warmed up its venerable A330 with a range increase, although the changes were more modest than Leahy might have wanted after his surprise - and ultimately premature - declaration earlier this year that the type might evolve sharklet wing-tips.

Max declarations, and the 787's display, helped to lift Boeing's profile at the show, even if it didn't stir up a whirlwind, while Airbus managed to avoid being left out in the rain. Farnborough week, then, pretty much reflected the weather: not particularly hot, fairly humdrum, with spells of brightness. Anyone feel brave enough to venture a forecast for Paris?

(This article first appeared as the main leading article in the 17 July issue of Flight International
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Cool heads must prevail in fatigue debate

By
Murdo Morrison
 on July 5, 2012 8:47 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Pilot fatigue is a hot topic right now because of the ongoing deliberations at the European Aviation Safety Agency, which looks as if it will allow airlines to increase pilot duty hours under certain circumstances. All the pilot unions are opposed to this.

The Air Berlin incident, where the crew of an Airbus A330 requested priority landing because of fatigue, is likely to muddy the waters because of the strong feelings on both sides of the argument.

This was certainly an unusual - possibly unique - event, but there is a heightened awareness now of fatigue risks, and that cannot be a bad thing at a time when pilots are working harder than they have ever done. Because fatigue really does create risk.

If these pilots were fatigued to the point where they could see their performance was being affected, they did the right thing. The very least the "pan" call would have done for them is to ensure that controllers kept the procedures simple. In 2001, a Crossair Avro RJ100 crashed fatally on approach to Zurich when the crew were given a runway change during the descent, and the official report ruled that fatigue was a causal factor in that accident.

Ultimately, pilots have to make the decisions about how to mitigate the effects of tiredness. This is one way of doing it. Air Berlin, in its statements, has been diplomatic and responsible. Let's keep it that way.

(This first appeared as the second leading article in 3 July issue of Flight International) 

CSeries' credibility problem

By
Murdo Morrison
 on July 5, 2012 8:36 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

 

New aircraft programmes have something of a credibility problem. When Boeing delivers the first 787 more than three years late and Airbus delays assembly of the A350 by more than a year, commercial aircraft customers are right to be wary of official schedules.

Nowhere is this phenomenon more evident than in Hangar Y, which is the heart of Bombardier's final assembly centre for the CSeries in Mirabel, Quebec.

The entire hangar is partly designed as a simulated working environment, but partly also to reassure customers, investors and, yes, journalistic observers that the CSeries is not going the way of the A350 or the 787 - at least from a schedule standpoint.

A full-scale, wooden replica of the CSeries stands along one wall. A robotic fastening machine is perched in a corner. Final assembly tooling jigs are arrayed along the floor. Visitors are assured that these tools help workers familiarise themselves with production before the first components arrive. It is a good idea, but not quite persuasive enough, and Mike Arcamone, Bombardier's head of commercial aircraft, is forced to repeat a mantra: "Yes, the CSeries programme is on track."

The surprising thing is that, by all public accounts, Arcamone is right. The programme is still roughly on track. First flight is likely to be delayed several weeks if Bombardier's attempt to compress final assembly by a month is unsuccessful. But the real test is whether Bombardier can deliver the first CSeries roughly on time and then ramp up production. And given the delays Airbus and Boeing customers have endured, if Bombardier can keep any schedule drift within a six-month window, customers will likely react with delighted surprise.

Many questions hover over the CSeries programme. Can Bombardier's Chinese fuselage partner Shenyang keep up with demand? Can Bombardier Belfast master the challenge of delivering a single-piece, all-composite wing? Is Bombardier ready to introduce a fly-by-wire airliner that is more complex than anything it has produced in its rather prolific history?

Only time will answer these questions to the satisfaction of a market accustomed to disappointment. But Bombardier at least gets credit for learning from the mistakes of others. Other airframers still use wooden mock-ups as 3D cabin or flightdeck design tools. But no airframer still uses a full-scale, wooden mock-up as a tool for simulating the final assembly process.

Given history, Bombardier is right to try something different. It might even prove the doubters wrong.

 

(This first appeared as the main leading article in the 3 July issue of Flight International)

 

Flight International's biggest issue of the year

By
Murdo Morrison
 on July 2, 2012 4:50 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The 3 July issue of Flight International is not only our biggest of the year, but your essential guide to the Farnborough air show.

Packed with more than 50 pages of programme updates and features on many of the themes likely to be playing big at the show from Europe's space ambitions to Chinese military jets, the perfect-bound "fattie" is the culmination of weeks' of hard toil by Flightglobal's content team, who have travelled thousands of kilometres to visit factories, attend briefings and quiz executives...so you don't have to!

The issue goes on sale in newsagents tomorrow.

Also at Farnborough, we will be officially launching our new tablet edition for the iPad, which comes with extra pictures, video and interactivity. Most importantly, it is published every Saturday, three days ahead of print publication and considerably ahead of when many of our overseas subscribers receive the magazine by post. Look out for our special subscription offers to the new edition, or, if you are at Farnborough, visit our subscriptions stand in Hall 2.

You can still download 25 free issues from the Flight International app - search for FINTL on the App Store.

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