Murdo Morrison: August 2012 Archives

The ascent of Airbus

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After a week's absence, Flight International returns this week with a bumper issue, containing our annual World Airliner Census - a snapshot of the global fleet - and a picture special on the centenary of the Russian air force. We also have a report from Brazil's business aviation show, LABACE and the fall-out from Qantas's cancellation of its Boeing 787 order.

Our census reveals that Airbus's share of all the airliners in airline fleets has crept above a quarter for the first time, mostly at the expense of Boeing, which has dipped below 40%.

 

Time to build up booming Brazil

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For too long, a business jet boom in Brazil has been threatened only by a shortage of infrastructure.

Few countries have a richer history with aviation. Local legend Alberto Santos-Dumont is a worthy peer to the Wright brothers and Louis Blériot. Aviation opened the Brazilian frontier 40 years ago; the nation's aerospace industry is the envy of most of the world.

But Brazil's government has never embraced the rise of its business jet market. Despite a recent census showing 714 paved runways dotting the nation, fixed-base operations remain illegal there. This forces business jet operators to share slots at 130 airports used by an equally booming commercial aviation sector. Capacity at metropolitan airports is naturally biased towards the commercial sector, forcing operators of business aircraft to plan routes carefully and avail of airports sometimes dozens of miles from their actual destination.

At LABACE, government officials finally embraced a plan to relieve the pressure. New legislation pending the signature of President Dilma Rousseff would allow private airports to charge operating fees for the first time, clearing the way for fixed-base operators.

The measure is long overdue, to the point of being too late to address urgent needs: the football World Cup comes to Brazil in 2014, along with a swarm of business jets. But at least the country might finally receive the infrastructure its business jet sector deserves.

(This first appeared as the second leading article in Flight International

New Delhi off target

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An advanced defence aerospace sector offering both high-technology jobs and an independent production capability is the dream of many governments. Nowhere is this more true than India. New Delhi's recent revamp of its defence offset policy seeks to address some of the shortfalls of its previous efforts to ensure that 30% of its defence import expenditure is reinvested at home.

Technology transfer is given greater emphasis through the use of multipliers, and foreign vendors are granted more time to dispense offset obligations. The new rules also allow a higher degree of flexibility to make amendments to an offset agreement after it has been signed.

On paper, it all sounds great. Certainly, it seems that vendors need only to sell a modest part of their soul in return for vast contracts. However, behind the scenes another picture emerges.

In private, contractors question the ability of India's still nascent defence sector to absorb advanced technologies, materials and processes. The leap from where Indian industry is now to where parliament wants it to be is, in some cases, simply too great.

Moreover, the monetary value of intellectual property may be open to debate. One industry source indicates that companies are content to hand over advanced blueprints in return for high-value offsets because the blueprints end up in desk drawers, unused, and there is limited follow-up to check whether offset agreements are implemented properly.

Figures released by the Indian defence ministry certainly highlight the importance of getting offset arrangements right. Across the financial years 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, the nation's defence equipment spending favoured indigenous sources over foreign manufacturers by a factor of 2:1, but in 2011-2012 the gap narrowed to 15%, and in the first quarter of the current financial year, external suppliers slightly got the better of their domestic counterparts. In absolute terms, each group was favoured with more than $1 billion of spending in that single quarter.

For India to make offsets work, it needs to make a realistic assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of its defence sector, and reward the types of offset agreements that will help it rise up the global value chain.

More crucially, it must increase the level of transparency and accountability involved in the execution of offset obligations.

(This first appeared as the main leader in Flight International 28 August)

South Africa's opportunity

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I've just come back from South Africa, where photographer Tom Gordon and I were interviewing leading players in the country's aerospace and aviation industries, including South African Airways chief executive Siza Mzimela for our sister magazine Airline Business. Flight's own special on South Africa comes out on 11 September, ahead of the Africa Aerospace and Defence show in Pretoria later that month.

It was my first visit to South Africa and it's clear that the country's problems have not vanished with the end of apartheid, almost two decades ago. Although there have been improvements poverty and unemployment remain endemic and crime is a major problem. Beside the very 21st century highways and modern rail transit connecting the suburbs of Johannesburg and Pretoria are sprawling townships (although housing conditions within them vary from elegant modern townhouses to corrugated iron shacks). South Africa's middle classes live in gated compounds behind high barbed wire-topped walls and security gates. While I was there, the tragedy at the Marikana platinum mine, near Johannesburg, was unfolding.

But for those lucky enough to be in a job, this is still the rainbow nation, a multicultural society where respect for racial differences is not just entrenched in the constitution, but now part of the social fabric. A sign in a Virgin Active gym I visited stressed a zero tolerance for any kind of racism in the "new South Africa".

The end of apartheid and sanctions have transformed South Africa from an inward pariah state to a country able to export not just its rich resource of raw materials and agricultural produce, but its considerable industrial, entrepreneurial and technological prowess. With sub-Saharan Africa poised to be the next big growth region, South Africa is positioning itself as its economic powerhouse. In aviation that means being the hub for both airline services and general and business aviation. In aerospace, it means using expertise created during the isolationist years to train a new generation of designers and engineers and export products to the rest of the continent: Paramount Group's AHRLAC reconnaisance aircraft is a prime example.

I'll be writing about the prospects for South African industry in our 11 September issue.

No issue this week - back on 28 August

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If you are wondering what happened to the 21 August issue of Flight International, we've combined two issues. It's the first time we've taken the decision to skip an edition over the (northern hemisphere) summer, but economic realities - advertising pretty much melts away - means it makes sense.

Subscribers will still, of course, receive their full number of issues - whether six or 12 months' worth. We'll be back on 28 August with a packed Flight International, including our annual Airliner Census, an analytical snapshot of the size and shape of the world's commercial airliner fleet.

Can Siza seize the opportunity

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South African Airways' chief executive Siza Mzimela admits that her challenges are many. The state-owned airline will post a loss when its financial results come out at the end of August: fuel prices, a weak rand and a stuttering Eurozone are all blamed for rising dollar costs and faltering traffic.

But another threat to the carrier comes from Emirates and its Gulf counterparts, who have been steadily cherry-picking the sorts of African destinations that SAA and its handful of mostly north and east African competitors have long shared with European carriers. It makes more sense for passengers going to Asia or even Europe from, say, Dar Es Salaam or Khartoum, Lusaka, Luanda or Lagos to connect through the Gulf than SAA's Johannesburg hub.

Now Mzimela hopes to use one of SAA's biggest challenges - its geographic location at the southern end of the earth - to its advantage, touting Johannesburg as the ideal connection point between two of the world's fastest-growing regions, South America and Asia. She also sees the potential in the surging economies of southern Africa. Angola, Mozambique, Botswana, Zambia and even beleagured Zimbabwe are all forecast to enjoy strong economic growth in the next two decades. This region is certainly SAA's backyard and Johannesburg is the only real hub airport serving it.

Another hope for SAA and Mzimela is opening a second hub in a "friendly" West African country to allow the airline to offer east-west routes. Plans, however, are at an early stage.

I spoke to Mzimela at SAA's headquarters at Johannesburg's OR Tambo International Airport on 13 August. You can read my full interview with Mzimela in October's issue of Airline Business.

A century of Chinook?

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Could the twin-rotor Chinook - veteran of many a military campaign from Vietnam to Afghanistan - be the first rotorcraft to reach a century of service? The Boeing heavylifter was innovative at the time it entered service, and remains so. Other rotorcraft developments - from tiltrotors to the latest speedy concepts from Sikorsky and Eurocopter - have yet to prove their worth. In the 14 August issue of Flight International we look back on the first half-century of the CH-47 and speculate as to its future.

The issue also includes a special feature on filming the London Olympics from the air and how civilian helicopter services have aided the military campaign in Afghanistan.

In news, we have a report from the AUVSI event in Las Vegas, the main annual showcase for the unmanned systems sector, plus the latest on the flying trials of the Boeing X-48C blended wing body concept. Singapore's first M-346 trainer is unveiled, and Aviation Partners shows its split-tip winglet concept to the market.

Don't forget, you can buy a tablet version of this issue of Flight International for the iPad, or treat yourself or someone else to a year's worth of the world's best aviation weekly by visiting the App Store, where more than 30 issues of the magazine, from January this year, are available. If you are already a print subscriber, you can even transfer your subscription to the tablet edition, meaning you will not have to wait for your issue to arrive. Each tablet edition is available to download on Saturday, three days ahead of official publication date.

Subscribe to Flight International's tablet edition today

Chinook thrives where speed not needed

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Boeing's CH-47 Chinook might become the first rotorcraft to fly for a century. Its success is due to innovative design and prodigious power margins.

It is fast, agile and has outstanding high altitude performance. It can also be quickly and easily upgraded - and will continue to evolve for the foreseeable future.

But the Chinook's success and longevity also highlights a quandary in the helicopter design world.

Since the introduction of gas turbine engines, there had not been a real technological breakthrough until the advent of Sikorsky's X-2 compound helicopter prototype. But while the X-2 shattered speed records - thumbing its nose at retreating blade stall - it is unclear if it will ever find a buyer.

Nor is it clear if Eurocopter's X3 high-speed compound helicopter is on any better a footing.

Meanwhile, tilt-rotor technology increasingly looks to be an evolutionary dead end. The compromises to hover performances imposed by that design do not appear to be acceptable to most potential customers. Nor is the high price of such aircraft something many customers are willing to pay.

The bottom line is that while speed is always nice to have, the market does not appear to be willing to pay a premium for that added performance. This means that aircraft like the Chinook will probably soldier on decade after decade.

(This first appeared as the second leading article in Flight International 14 August 2012)

Just driving around?

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As the Martian dust began to settle around NASA's Curiosity rover, jubilant mission-control scientists at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory were treated to a rousing pep talk by President Obama's science advisor, John Holdren. Having just monitored the entry, descent and successful landing of the car-sized Curiosity, they hardly needed anybody to tell them they were good. But Holdren pumped them up a bit more, anyway.

The "most challenging mission... in the history of robotic planetary exploration", he said, "will stand as an American point of pride far into the future."

However, Holdren went on: "Our continued pre-eminence and progress in space and here on Earth... depends on our continuing commitment to science, technology and innovation, and the passion for adventure that has driven us to explore new worlds.

"By maintaining our investment in basic research and exploration we ensure America will remain at the forefront of the scientific frontier."

All of that sounds like very good value for the $2.5 billion that it will have cost to build Curiosity, launch it and run it on Mars for the next two years.

But just in case the President's message was unclear, Holdren added: "The administration is committed to a vibrant and co-ordinated strategy of Mars exploration and planetary exploration more generally."

President Obama, of course, does not need to tell those scientists at JPL they are doing something worthwhile. But Holden surely chose his words carefully, in particular the phrase "a vibrant and co-ordinated strategy", because he was really addressing Congress, which controls the money.

The sad fact is that as things stand NASA has no funded Mars plans beyond Curiosity. A mission with no follow-on does not represent a strategy, let alone a vibrant one.

Nor is it co-ordinated, which everybody at NASA knows it needs to be. Earlier this year, NASA told the European Space Agency that, thanks to Congress's refusal to play ball, it had to pull out of planned joint 2016 and 2018 ExoMars missions.

The Russians stepped in, so everybody's Mars goals - including, eventually, a sample return mission - can carry on after Curiosity.

Let us hope, though, that Congress changes course and lets NASA rejoin the Mars effort. Curiosity is magnificent, but it would be a terrible shame if its final achievement was to come to rest at the end of USA's exploration road.

(This first appeared as the main leading article in Flight International 14 August 2012)

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