Murdo Morrison: October 2012 Archives

Wichita attained the status of aviation capital of the USA during the war and retained it in the subsequent decades, with Boeing choosing the Kansas city as one of its main manufacturing bases and the stalwarts of general aviation - Cessna, Learjet and Beech - all establishing factories there. Their presence spawned a large supplier structure of "mom and pop" build to print shops, as well as educational and research institutions.

In the past few years, however, things have been tougher for Wichita. Boeing is departing (though its former commercial arm, now Spirit AeroSystems is not); Airbus talked about but decided against establishing a plant in the city; and the downturn in business aviation, especially at the light-to-medium jet end, has been disastrous for Cessna, Hawker Beechcraft and Bombardier's Learjet, as well as their suppliers.

Stephen Trimble visited Wichita for the 30 October issue of Flight International and found a town determined to fight back. Booming demand for Boeing airliners, especially 737s, is keeping Spirit busy, and there are hints of a sustained recovery in business aviation, even as Cessna and Bombardier continue with new Wichita-based development programmes, including the Cessna Latitude and Longitude, and Learjet 85. Airbus has a busy engineering centre in Wichita and Hawker Beechcraft - though it will exit the business jet market with the closure of the Hawker line - at least is still in business and promising investment in its still-popular Beechcraft King Air brand and other small aircraft.

In our Comment piece, we sum up Wichita's prospects thus: "This medium-sized Kansas city has a depth of experience, skill and talent that cannot be transplanted to a lower-cost market, or replaced by new competitors with only a fraction of Wichita's lifespan. The winds in Wichita are changing - this time in the cluster's favour."

For some time it has been apparent that if action over the issue of cabin air contamination were to be initiated, German aviation would probably supply the impetus. That is now proving to be true.
For the first time anywhere in the world, a senior government minister has not merely suggested yet another study to establish whether there is an issue at all, but has called for urgent action over an issue for which he clearly sees the evidence in front of his eyes. German transport minister Peter Ramsauer has written to EU transport commissioner Siim Kallas citing 74 reports of pyrolised oil fume incidents in German carriers, nine of which he says were judged by accident investigator BFU to have posed a serious risk to safety.
Ramsauer says reports of these incidents are increasing, and he wants action. He wants Kallas to ensure the European Aviation Safety Agency comes up with a solution to the problem. EASA is aware of the issue, but has been using industry smokescreens and denials to put off dealing with it. EASA's own problem is the fact that it is chronically under-resourced.
Ramsauer is right, however, to make this a European problem. Now EASA exists, Germany cannot deal with the issue on its own. But it is because Germany's reporting and investigating culture, while not perfect, is more honest and open than that of any other EU country, that EASA will ultimately have to act.

(This first appeared as a leading article in Flight International 23 October issue) 

The Romans who turned up to hear Mark Anthony insist he had come to "bury Caesar, not praise him" may have suspected they were not in for a routine funeral oration. Likewise, lunch guests at the Aviation Club probably guessed at the start of Akbar Al Baker's keynote speech on 17 October that a gentle homily on Qatar Airways' successes was not on the menu.
The Doha-based airline's chief executive began that way, but quickly turned on familiar targets - IATA's former leader Giovanni Bisignani, European legacy carriers that accuse Gulf airlines of unfair competition, and Europe's Emissions Trading System.
He reserved particular ire for politicians who oppose expansion of London Heathrow. For an industry notable to call for increased capacity in the southeast is hardly novel. But for an overseas airline boss to enter the debate in such a provocative way is rare. Qatar, of course, has an interest in a bigger Heathrow. The London hub is its biggest foreign base, with five daily flights. Its new Oneworld membership gives it access to extensive transatlantic and domestic US networks. The carrier, said Al Baker, would like to increase frequencies from the capital but is frustrated by a lack of slots.
He decried the government for pandering to environmental and local protestors and failing to act in the "national interest". The UK should do as they do in the Gulf and push through vital infrastructure projects - compensating but not being stymied by anyone whose property stands in the way, he suggested. The Gulf's hereditary rulers, of course, do not have to worry about trifles such as elections, planning inquiries or civil protests. It is easy to have a long-term vision when there are no awkward voters to inconveniently throw you out in favour of the other lot every five years. But the UK's head-in-the-sand attitude to airport capacity does highlight a problem with the way the nation regards its long-term economic priorities.
The tide may be turning. Heathrow was off the agenda until only weeks ago, but now there is a promise to look at options, including a third runway, an all-new estuary airport and growth of Gatwick or Stansted.
The bigger airport London desperately needs is still a long way off, and it is fanciful that Prime Minister  David Cameron will "act now in the national interest", as Al Baker urged. But sometimes it takes a foreigner - and an impertinent one at that - to point out the utterly illogical stance ministers have taken on the capital's chances of remaining a global city.

This week's Flight International (23 October) has another of our cutaway posters, this time the Bell 429 GlobalRanger. Drawn by two of our artists, Tim Hall and Tim Bicheno Brown, the drawing is based on images, photographs and technical data sourced at Bell's Fort Worth site and painstakingly drawn over 12 weeks.

If you are not familiar with our cutaway drawings, they really are worth a look, depicting the incredible detail of the inner workings of the aircraft, its structure and its cockpit. Little wonder that these posters appear in engineering offices, and framed taking pride of place in boardrooms, of manufacturing facilities all over the world.

If you are not a Flight International subscriber - or newsstand customer - you can buy a copy of the poster, or any of our other cutaways, on high quality paper and without folds, at our shop flightglobal.com/shop. Otherwise, you can choose a host of gift items based on more than 500 historic cutaways at www.flightglobalimages.com

Next week's National Business Aviation Association convention in Orlando should give us a pretty good idea of whether the sector is showing any signs of recovery.

The portents have not been great. While the large cabin and airliner-derived segments have held up throughout the downturn - thanks to long lead times and a growing market of ultra-high-net-worths happy to pay to own or charter this sort of long-range, high-end transport, the rest of the business aviation market continues to sag.

Hawker Beechcraft announced last week that, following the breakdown of talks with a Chinese suitor, it was planning to dispose of - or shut down - its Hawker jet division. The famous brand has struggled for years, long before the onset of the recession, and time appears to be running out. It seems inconceivable that any of its rivals will step in to rescue it. The 23 October issue of Flight International has the full story.

Elsewhere, though there has been some uptick for Cessna and Bombardier has three Learjet models under development, that end of the sector remains tough. There are still many used jets in this part of the market looking for homes and dampening demand for new aircraft. And the core customer base for these jets - US corporates and small businesses - is still smarting from an onslaught from none other than President Barack Obama, who suggested in one of the presidential debates that owners should not be subject to favourable tax laws.

The NBAA's No Plane No Gain campaign - being rejuvinated at the convention this year - stresses that business aviation is crucial to the US and global economy. But in an age of austerity too many people still associate corporate aviation with corporate excess.

In this week's issue we look at several of the themes likely to be making the news in Orlando. Kate Sarsfield examines the air taxi market. Is there still life in a sector many suspected was a pre-downturn bubble of hype, blown up by the overstated ambitions of Vern Raburn's Eclipse Aerospace and would-be pioneer DayJet? You might be surprised at how the market has quietly developed over the past three years.

We also get our hands on some hardware, flight testing the new cockpit on Bombardier's revamped 70/75 and going under the skin of the Bell 429 helicopter with a stunning cutaway.

We have our annual snapshot of the business aircraft fleet with our census, and our cover story is the Bombardier Learjet 85, all-new big sister to the 70/75.

Akbar Al Baker was on top form as at a packed Aviation Club luncheon in London yesterday.

This was not the first time Qatar Airways' ever-controversial but charming chief executive has been the guest speaker at the monthly event, held in the plush Pall Mall function room of the Institute of Directors, adorned with portraits of monarchs and English aristocracy.

Al Baker has in the 15 years he has run the rapidly-expanding Doha-based airline been elevated from the boss of a tiny flag-carrier to aviation aristocracy himself. His appearance drew the biggest audience ever at an Aviation Club lunch.

In true Mark Anthony style, Al Baker began by humbly thanking the organisation for inviting him once again, insisting that he was simply an ordinary man working his hardest to generate value for his airline's shareholders. When he took on a combative approach with a supplier, it was simply to extract a better deal. His whole approach was about driving up standards and increasing choice for customers. He ran through Qatar's growth plans, outlining plans for new routes and fleet expansion, and its reasons for joining the oneworld network.

"So much has happened at Qatar Airways in the past year," he enthused.

But then he picked on some familiar targets. First for the Al Baker treatment was the "old regime" at IATA. The Qatar Airways' boss has never been a fan of former IATA chief Giovanni Bisignani, and he had some choice words for the way the organisation used to be run. He is a big fan of the "new regime" under Tony Tyler and now sits on the board.

Next up for a going-over were the parts of the aviation establishment - two European legacy carriers in particular - who had treated Qatar Airways and the other Gulf airlines as "pariahs" who drew on enormous state resources, subsidised fuel and limitless funding to "steal passengers" from competitors. "Let me put that myth to bed," he said, explaining that QR and its Gulf counterparts paid market rates for fuel and ran profitable businesses. They had won market share because they had put customers first, he said.

He accused them of hypocrisy, saying they had never complained when South-East Asian airlines went through their wave of state-facilitated expansion a decade or more earlier. And he couldn't resist naming one of his targets: "It is not the Gulf airlines that have made Lufthansa operate unprofitably".

A third target was Europe's Emissions Trading System - "an unfair form of taxation" designed to "bolster the treasure chests" of European governments.

Pausing to praise his new oneworld colleague, IAG's Willie Walsh, who had always recognised the "dynamism" the Gulf airlines were bringing to the industry, he said, he lined up his final prey: UK politicians who were resisting increasing increasing capacity at London Heathrow.

Calling for more runway capacity at the capital's hub is hardly new for an airline boss, and Al Baker started with the sort of phrases any pro-third runway campaigner might utter: "Expanding Heathrow is not an option, it's a necessity". Time was running out, he said. Qatar would love to expand its services from the airport but was unable to, and was now looking at options from other UK cities instead.

But then, in the question and answers session, Al Baker veered from the script and became more provocative. UK politicians should learn lessons from "my part of the world" - and even France - where infrastructure decisions were taken in the "national interest" regardless of local objections. Prime Minister David Cameron should think less about winning votes and more about the interest of the country. He finished by suggesting that those who could not see the value to the national economy of a world-leading Heathrow should be "tied to a table" in one of the terminals to "see what an airport actually does".

Probably the most entertaining Aviation Club lunches for a long time.

 

Don't take it personally

An unnamed flag carrier based on a large island not unadjacent to Britain has appointed a "customer experience executive". Should you wish to know more, however, and call the airline's communications contact number provided, a message asks you to leave your... er... personal mailbox number.

Helpfully, there is an option "for more information" which requires you to press the star key. Unhelpfully, you are then asked again for your personal mailbox number. So much for customer experience.

Field of dreams

Capt Ian Burnett takes issue with our claim in Straight & Level two weeks ago that the tiny landlocked republic of San Marino does not have an airport despite launching a registry for business jets. You can find it, apparently, at Domagnano.

"You aren't going to be able to land your Global Express on its grass strip, but it is an airfield nonetheless," he assures us.

Wind-up

We have just got wind of an exciting three-engined Boeing 737 concept. The prototype comes with two conventional CFM56 engines and a third, tail-mounted propeller.

Thanks to Ian Strachan for snapping this gem of an optical illusion at ATC Lasham.

Finnished tales

A group of Finnair cabin crew have collected funny real-life stories from colleagues in Airborne: Tales From A Thousand And One Flights.

While not as racy as Air Babylon - the book purporting to reveal what really goes on behind the galley curtains - you can learn about the female attendant who innocently asked two male business-class passengers if they had any desires she could fulfil, coin-operated vibrating hotel beds, and why hiding your laptop from burglars in a microwave is not a good idea. All proceeds go to charity. Find details on airbornethebook.com

Must do better

A recruitment ad on the EADS website misspells multifunctional, safety and appropriate - right above the requirement for "strong English skills, both verbal and written".

Remembering Republic

The Airline Business blog has a review of a coffee-table book on what was briefly the USA's largest domestic airline by destinations in the 1980s.

Subsumed into Northwest
in the mid-1980s, Republic Airlines holds fond memories for our Editor, who spent four weeks in 1984 on his first trip to the USA making dozens of standby flights on Republic's network for the paltry sum (even then) of $249. Which is possibly why the airline did
not survive.

The Republic Airlines Story: An Illustrated History, 1945-1986 is by Terry Love (Schiffer Publishing).

 

And finally...

Concerns are growing that Malta's fast-reaction interception squadron is beginning to show its age. Seriously, thanks to Sharpshotaero, aka Lyndon Griffith, for this shot of an Air Malta Airbus A320 in the airline's new colour scheme accompanied by Spitfire MH434, flown by Red Bull Air Races ace Paul Bonhomme at the recent Luqa air show in Malta.

This is not an easy time to be Tom Enders. Just months into his tenure as EADS chief executive, this titan of European industry has had his dreams of reshaping the continent's aerospace landscape dashed by political interference in a sensitive industry.

Before EADS's creation a decade ago, Enders was in management at DASA, the Daimler aerospace business that ultimately became Germany's contribution to EADS. His experience of the intervening years included a stint as co-chief executive when Paris and Berlin still insisted on lumbering EADS with a dual management structure that split all key jobs between a German and a French appointee. Not surprisingly, this experience has left him determined to end the meddling in EADS management by Berlin and Paris that comes with their nearly 50% effective control of the shares and the legacy of nationalised industry. The BAE merger was designed to address some very real competitive issues, but in large part it was a means to create a normal, shareholder-controlled company.

The commercial logic behind the deal may not have been compelling enough to convince the politicians to let go, but the failure of the deal is regrettable all the same. For the sake of all EADS stakeholders, who would be best served by a strong, globally competitive Europe-rooted company, it must be hoped that Enders' dream has not died along with this particular deal.

(This first appeared as the second leading article in Flight International 16 October)

As the USA shifts its gaze toward the Pacific after a decade of conflict in the Middle East and south Asia, it is confronted with a rising China and the tyranny of vast distances.
But the country has not confronted a near-peer adversary since the 1991 demise of the Soviet Union. To control the Pacific, the US will have to rely increasingly on air and sea power, but it may have over-invested in short-range tactical aircraft that are unsuitable for the vast distances of the Pacific theatre.

Increasingly, as China fields large numbers of conventional ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and advanced fighters, land bases in the region are vulnerable to attack. Moreover, the threat of being drawn into a regional conflict between the two giants may force allies in the area to restrict US use of their bases for operations against China. Similarly, Chinese submarines, anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles, and potentially maritime strike aircraft may force US Navy aircraft carriers further out to sea, limiting their effectiveness.

Long-range airpower can counter these threats, as bombers with intercontinental range can launch strikes from the US mainland. And in sufficient numbers, a bomber force could deliver sustained strike capability deep inside enemy airspace.

But the US long-range strategic bomber fleet has shrunk drastically since the end of the Cold War. What remains of the once-mighty Strategic Air Command is but a shadow of its old strength. Only 85 Boeing B-52 bombers remain in service, but the aircraft is more than 50 years old and has no ability to penetrate hostile airspace, relying instead on stand-off weapons. The newer Rockwell B-1B Lancer is somewhat more survivable, but the fleet of 60 jets is, at best, suitable to a medium threat environment. Only the tiny fleet of 20 Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit stealth bombers has a modicum of penetration capability, but defensive advances will over time erode its ability to fight inside heavily defended airspace.

Thus development of the US Air Force's new long-range penetrating stealth bomber programme should be a budget priority - as should buying the aircraft in robust numbers. Right now, though, the USAF plans to buy only 80 to 100 of the new Long Range Strike-Bomber, but that number may not be sufficient to meet the Pacific threat. If budgets cannot stretch to support that build-up while maintaining the tactical fighter fleet, it is the fighters that should be cut back.

(This first appeared as the main leading article in the 16 October 2012 issue of Flight International).

This week's issue of Flight International focuses in its feature section on next-generation bombers. Dave Majumdar looks at the US Air Force's efforts to develop a new stealth long-range bomber amid worries that the programme may be under threat from defence budget cuts. Vladimir Karnozov, meanwhile, reports from Moscow on Russia's progress on its own long-range strike aircraft, the PAK-DA.

In the news section, further criticism of Gulfstream's G650 flight-test programme from US safety inspectors and what SpaceX plans now after its first-ever flight by a private contractor to the International Space Station. Plus: the fallout from the failed EADS/BAE Systems merger move, and what Lufthansa is doing to eliminate incidents involving fumes on the flightdeck.

We currently have a great offer to subscribe to Flight International and read the magazine on your iPad, on your laptop or in print...or even in a combination of all three formats. Details on

http://tinyurl.com/d4t4f4x

 

Stop windfarms, build a heliport
Concerned citizens of Benzie County in Michigan are setting up heliports in a bid to curb onshore windfarm development in their area. One town, Joyfield, could soon have up to eight licensed public heliports. It would give the settlement of 800 souls more heliports than the rest of Michigan combined.
According to the Traverse City Record Eagle, turbines can't be built near heliports for safety reasons. The article explains:
"Obtaining a public heliport permit is neither complicated nor expensive. It involves a one-time $25 application fee, a flat piece of grass and a drawing based on an official, US geographical survey.
"The owner also has to provide a phone for public use; parking area, sanitary facility, and sign on the road. The sanitary facility could be an outhouse or portable toilet."
The tactic has serious implications for the onshore wind-turbine industry. Local residents are divided.
"It seems pretty fishy to me," says Susan Zenker, who lives near one of the proposed heliports. "I know all of the people who have applied, and as far as I know not one of them has a helicopter."

Quick brake
Thanks to Peter Martin for this physics-defying revelation in a Times piece about the new aircraft carrier of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy, the Liaoning. "The PLA navy fighters have only recently been fitted with the braking equipment to bring them to an immediate stop upon touchtown." Have the pilots been informed? wonders Peter.

Ryan where?
Can it be true? Ryanair - the carrier that is to customer care what French gossip magazines are to royal privacy - has opened a shop in Manchester where passengers can talk to real airline staff without paying a face-to-face surcharge.
But don't worry, Michael  O'Leary hasn't gone soft. The frugally appointed former florists is a typical piece of guerilla marketing by the budget carrier. It is renting the property temporarily to promote its new Manchester services. Like Ryanair's cheapest fares, it will be gone in a few weeks.

When fast jets were Frightning
Mach 2 was a way of life for the RAF's Lightning pilots, making them the envy of their fast-jet jockey contemporaries. But the English Electric jet didn't earn the nickname "Frightning" for nothing, as a new book by Peter Caygill testifies.
Lightning Eject (£19.99, hardback, Pen & Sword) examines what Caygill describes as  "the dubious safety record" of the supersonic fighter.
There was a 6% chance that a Lightning pilot would suffer an engine fire and a one in four that he would not survive the experience - even F6 XR760 (pictured above) was lost due to one, although pilot Flt Lt Bob Bees ejected safely.
Caygill puts you in the cockpit as he chronologically recounts the incidents and accidents of what was surely one of the 20th century's most exciting fighters. A must-read for all Lightning aficionados and companion to Caygill's Lightning from the Cockpit.

Fligth unintentional
This unfortunate typo on a Gatwick airport screen caught the eye of one of our sub-editors (frankly, we'd have been disappointed if it hadn't).

 

Our cover story this week (Flight International 9 October) asks what lessons aerospace can learn from the achievements of Solar Impulse, the Swiss-based project which aims to send a manned solar-powered aircraft around the world. Dan Thisdell has been to visit the company's founders to talk to them about the real reasons behind their efforts.

Ahead of the Japanese air show we ask whether the country has its air defence and aerospace industrial policies right when it comes to countering threats from China. Is it time for Tokyo to abandon its long-held determination to produce its own military aircraft programmes? Greg Waldron reports.

And there is also an update on Japan's first home-built civil aircraft in a long time, the Mitsubishi Regional Jet. Despite an order from Skywest, the MRJ still faces a herculean struggle for market acceptance.

In news: Qatar Airways' chief executive Akbar Al Baker accuses Boeing of failing the airline over delays to its Boeing 787s; the business aviation community reacts to comments by President Barack Obama about taxing corporate aircraft; and the ailing pilots who battled to land an A319.

 

Plus: if you are not a subscriber to Flight International, we have some great offers on the go, including for our new tablet format. Go to http://tinyurl.com/d4t4f4x

 

 

A project whose explicit goal is to fly around the world with no fuel would seem to be all about aviation, especially when the men behind the plan are two of the world's more formidable aviators. But Solar Impulse founders André Borschberg and Bertrand Piccard insist the main goal of this scheme is not to fly around the world, but to show the world what wonders of energy efficiency can be achieved if only we all would choose to fully exploit available technology. The aircraft, they say, is merely the most exciting vehicle for conveying that message.
For all of our sakes, let us hope they succeed.
But in the meantime, let us all delight in the latest example of how aviation's urgent need for light, efficient, reliable materials and structures has shaped modern life. To cite just two examples: first, nearly a century before the Wright Brothers, English inventor George Cayley paved the way for bicycles, motorcycles and cars by conceiving the tension spoke wheel while experimenting with gliders; second, a generation ago and not so far from Solar Impulse, Paul MacCready pioneered the use of carbonfibre to create his milestone of efficient flight, Gossamer Albatross.
So, when you next swing your leg over a mountain bike, tee off or swivel your titanium replacement hip, spare a thought for the aviators who never stop trying to make something a little bit better.

(This article first appeared as a Comment piece in Flight International 9 October 2012)

Geopolitical tensions crackle in northeast Asia. The recent spat between Japan and China over what Tokyo calls the Senkaku Islands and Beijing the Diaoyu Islands sent tremors through the region.

There is more at stake than a handful of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea. Whoever controls these islands will enjoy the concomitant territorial rights. But make no mistake: the real issue here is national pride.

In several mainland cities the dispute, which stopped just short of a crisis, saw Japanese-owned businesses vandalised and even Japanese-branded cars destroyed on the streets. Airlines operating between the two countries were forced to reduce capacity.

Events have a way of spiralling out of control. In 1914, who thought a single assassination would spark the First World War? In 1982, who thought the UK would be drawn into a colonial war in the South Atlantic? When tensions are high, mistakes happen - sometimes with terrible consequences. Amid growing Asian nationalism, Tokyo must make tough decisions about the future of the Japan Air Self Defense Force, an indispensable deterrent to conflict.

The cash-strapped nation needs to recognise how impractical and wasteful its lavish indigenous military aircraft programmes are. Funds that would be better spent upgrading JASDF capabilities are squandered on home-grown programmes with little export potential, resulting in indefensibly high unit costs.

On a per-unit basis, the JASDF's Mitsubishi F-2 was viewed as one of the most expensive jet fighters in history. While defenders will state that it is optimised for JASDF service, was it worth the cost of developing what is a Lockheed Martin F-16 in all but name?

Similarly, the four-engined Kawasaki Heavy Industries XP-1 maritime patrol aircraft and C-2 transport aircraft effectively re-invents the wheel. A less expensive MPA option would have been the Boeing P-8 Poseidon, while the role of the C-2 could have been filled by the C-130J. Both of these capable types would have allowed commonality with USAF equipment.

Globally, jobs and national prestige tend to have more influence on defence procurement than military necessity. Many countries seem able to get away with such thinking indefinitely, but Tokyo's volatile neighbourhood demands hard-headed, realistic decisions on how every single yen budgeted for defence is spent. An able indigenous aerospace sector is nice to have, but nothing compared with an air force's deterrent value.

(This article first appeared as lead Comment in our 9 October 2012 issue)

Geopolitical tensions crackle in northeast Asia. The recent spat between Japan and China over what Tokyo calls the Senkaku Islands and Beijing the Diaoyu Islands sent tremors through the region.

There is more at stake than a handful of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea. Whoever controls these islands will enjoy the concomitant territorial rights. But make no mistake: the real issue here is national pride.

In several mainland cities the dispute, which stopped just short of a crisis, saw Japanese-owned businesses vandalised and even Japanese-branded cars destroyed on the streets. Airlines operating between the two countries were forced to reduce capacity.

Events have a way of spiralling out of control. In 1914, who thought a single assassination would spark the First World War? In 1982, who thought the UK would be drawn into a colonial war in the South Atlantic? When tensions are high, mistakes happen - sometimes with terrible consequences. Amid growing Asian nationalism, Tokyo must make tough decisions about the future of the Japan Air Self Defense Force, an indispensable deterrent to conflict.

The cash-strapped nation needs to recognise how impractical and wasteful its lavish indigenous military aircraft programmes are. Funds that would be better spent upgrading JASDF capabilities are squandered on home-grown programmes with little export potential, resulting in indefensibly high unit costs.

On a per-unit basis, the JASDF's Mitsubishi F-2 was viewed as one of the most expensive jet fighters in history. While defenders will state that it is optimised for JASDF service, was it worth the cost of developing what is a Lockheed Martin F-16 in all but name?

Similarly, the four-engined Kawasaki Heavy Industries XP-1 maritime patrol aircraft and C-2 transport aircraft effectively re-invents the wheel. A less expensive MPA option would have been the Boeing P-8 Poseidon, while the role of the C-2 could have been filled by the C-130J. Both of these capable types would have allowed commonality with USAF equipment.

Globally, jobs and national prestige tend to have more influence on defence procurement than military necessity. Many countries seem able to get away with such thinking indefinitely, but Tokyo's volatile neighbourhood demands hard-headed, realistic decisions on how every single yen budgeted for defence is spent. An able indigenous aerospace sector is nice to have, but nothing compared with an air force's deterrent value.

Flight International is famous for its compelling and agenda-setting conferences on aviation safety. Usually held in London or elsewhere in Europe, earlier this year we branched out with an event in Asia.

Now we are going transatlantic with our first Safety in Aviation North America conference. It takes place on 5-6 November in Montreal and airlines and companies represented include Spirit, American, Jazz Aviation, Calm Air, United Airlines, ExpressJet Airways, Delta, Honeywell and Aeromexico.

Sadly, I won't be there myself, but we can promise you a superb programme. 

Details on www.flightglobalevents.com/safetyna2012

eaction to the proposed merger of BAE Systems and EADS has not been good. Shares in both have gone only downhill since the two admitted they were talking marriage. Private investors in EADS believe the deal undervalues their company and have no wish to give away their cash pile to support a weak partner. Politicians in Berlin are unconvinced, as are counterparts in Paris. Even London's free-market fans may not let go of a particularly strategic piece of family silver.

Analysts see few synergies. The idea of a pan-European industry champion forged of national companies otherwise struggling in too-small home markets has certainly been a success in EADS's civil businesses, but a BAE-EADS combination would - unlike its US counterparts - still be dealing with small national markets.

Worse, linking with BAE seems unlikely to open the US defence market to EADS, and an EADS connection may even undermine BAE's hard-won acceptance by the Pentagon. Buying weapons from BAE-EADS could easily be seen as using US taxpayers' money to subsidise Europeans - and that won't wash in Washington.

With so many players and variables, the merger talks may well founder. The way forward could be to split BAE, selling the US business to a rival there and leaving EADS with the rest. That outcome would not please stakeholders in EADS or BAE, but politics, like war, is all too often the domain of chance.

(This first appeared as a leading article in 2 October issue of Flight International) 

It is a punchline perhaps as relevant today as 20 years ago: China's general aviation market is the next big opportunity, and always will be.
There is no doubting the potential of long-repressed Chinese demand for the kind of casual flying taken for granted in most parts of Europe and North America.
Statistics from the Chinese GA sector paint a surreal portrait of austerity in a booming economy.
Compared with the world's largest market in the USA, China's operations and industry for GA seems hopelessly behind. Last year, hours flown by GA aircraft in China totalled 502,700; for the USA, the figure was 24.4 million. The Wall Street Journal has reported that the GA industry of North Dakota exceeds the combined output of the same sector in China. A 2008 study by Booz & Co reported 653 GA aircraft in China, compared with about 224,000 in the USA.
These almost comical statistical differences are fully explained by yawning disparities in infrastructure and government policy. There are 19,191 GA airports in the USA, according to the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Press reports in China identify 244 civilian airports in that country. The Chinese air force controls all airspace below 1,000m (3,300ft), requiring pilots to request clearance for take-offs at least seven days in advance, although turn-around often takes weeks.
All this is changing, if you believe the latest round of messaging by the Chinese government. In July, China's State Council published a blueprint for raising the number of GA hours flown to two million by 2020, a 19% annual increase. Meanwhile, China will add 82 new airports and expand 101 existing airports by 2017, the Civil Aviation Administration of China announced a week after the State Council's blueprint appeared. The CAAC also committed to relaxing the military ban on private flights in Chinese airspace.
These pledges of reforms have been noticed. Chinese cities are vying with each other to become new hubs for training private pilots. Lacking an indigenous industry, the cities are gobbling up distressed GA manufacturers in the USA, the latest targets being Liberty Aerospace and Vertical Aviation Technologies.
But promised reforms do not appear adequate to the grand scale of the Chinese government's ambitions. For example, China would need hundreds of new airports to support forecasted growth in GA flight hours, along with the predicted leap in commercial operations.
The Chinese GA market can only grow - but not nearly at the pace promoted by its government.

The lighter end of Flight International each week is our Straight & Level column. Here's the latest one from our 2 October issue.

The new battle of Pearl Harbor
Is the US Navy about to succeed where the Japanese imperial navy failed in destroying a piece of Pearl Harbor that survived the 1941 attack?
The Pacific Aviation Museum, based in one of the hangars at Ford Island that remained intact after the raid, is up in arms about plans to cover the Naval Air Station's runway and adjoining land with 60,000 photovoltaic panels.
The runway was used by the air station from 1921 to 1961, and the move is part of a Navy commitment to source 25% of its electrical power from renewable sources by 2025.
The museum's directors say the project would "violate hallowed ground" - ground it compares to other US historic battle sites such as Gettysburg or the Alamo.

Missing airport
The republic of San Marino has launched its own aviation registry, promising "first-class services to all aircraft and helicopter owners, operators and financial institutions
which existing offshore and traditional civil aviation authorities can't match".
Just don't try flying your San Marino-registered aircraft into its new home. The tiny enclave does not have an airport and
has to use nearby Rimini - in Italy - instead.

Olympic veteran
Torben Andersen, from Denmark, was delighted to pick up an Olympic memento when in the UK - a die-cast model of the "wonderful Concorde". However, he writes: "Who
came up with the idea of Concorde as an official Olympics souvenir: an aircraft that has been out of production for 33 years and retired in 2003? Surely there must be more recent UK aircraft designs that are worth celebrating?"
Er... sadly, Torben, no.
 
Curse of awards
Bad timing? Days after announcing it was merging its European point-to-point services with low-cost subsidiary Germanwings, Lufthansa was named best short-haul leisure airline by posh holiday magazine Condé Nast Traveller.
We wonder if the readers who voted for Lufty's "outstanding on-board product" of free food and drinks and generous bag allowance will look so kindly on Germanwings' rather more cheap and cheerful offering.
Yuckspeak #971
From a GA Telesis press release: "The aircraft will enter the disassembly production line next week" = "We're scrapping them".

We're in the dark
"While most passengers like
the current windows very much we believe that some will be more comfortable with a slightly darker window. According to our passenger survey, more than 85% answered for 'exceeded' or 'fully met' about Damnability."
We think ANA means dimmability, but damnability is such a damn fine word.

Western attitude
Saudi Arabia is no longer in the Middle East; it is in Western Asia, according to Korean Air, which is launching services to the kingdom. It seems Western Asia is a less Eurocentric term for the region.

Joke of the weak
Teams from EADS and BAE
are deciding on a name for the merged entity. Presumably
they are putting their 'eads together.

Look out for a very unusual cover on this week's Flight International (2 October) to go with our cover story on finding a suitable engine for the Boeing 777X. Our commercial engines special looks at the tussle between the big three propulsion players to supply a product that will deliver the 10%-plus fuel burn improvement being demanded by the airframer for the next version of its top-selling twinjet. The package also has an update on the PW1100G geared turbofan as the engine is readied for testing.

In news this week: why China could be single-handedly reviving the USA's ailing general aviation industry, and how a proposed 160-seat Bombardier CSeries is getting low-cost airlines very interested. Plus: is Embraer in trouble as its regional jet backlog shrinks? And the latest ins and outs of the BAE/EADS merger plan.