Murdo Morrison: November 2012 Archives

The US Marine Corps has stood up its first Lockheed Martin F-35B squadron at MCAS Yuma, Arizona, and during the next year the fleet will grow to 16. But although the Marines are adamant that VMFA-121 is an operational unit, it is not operationally capable.
The aircraft are early production models with a basic Block 1B configuration. They fly a limited flight envelope and cannot even fly during instrument meteorological conditions. Moreover, as currently configured, they have no combat capability.
Operational testing is years away, but the Marines say they may not wait for the evaluation to be completed. They might declare the F-35B operational the moment they have 10 deployable interim-configuration jets and enough equipment and trained maintenance crews for two shifts. It is not unusual for a weapons system to be declared operational with known deficiencies and before testing is finished, the USMC argues.
This line of reasoning is all too familiar. In years past, when the Bell Boeing MV-22 Osprey was entering service, the overzealous USMC rushed the aircraft into the fleet without proper testing and with multiple known design flaws. In their zeal, some USMC units even falsified maintenance records. The result was the loss of almost two dozen lives. History cannot be allowed to repeat itself; the Pentagon must ensure the USMC does not prematurely deploy the F-35B.

(This first appeared as a leader in 27 November 2012 issue of Flight International)

US aerospace companies have seldom seen better market conditions than in 2012. There is much talk of spending cuts on the military, but the reality is the base defence budget has never been higher - at least until the "fiscal cliff" expires. Business jet sales have not recovered to pre-2009 levels, but galloping production rates in the commercial aviation sector have more than compensated for any weaknesses elsewhere.
Yet, many US-based chief executives seem not to be revelling in the industry's hard-won prosperity. The announced intention of Spirit AeroSystems chief Jeff Turner to step down early in 2013 is only the latest example of a leadership change at the highest levels of the US aerospace and defence industry.
The chief executive churn started in June with the unexpected resignation of Jim Albaugh. Jim McNerney is Boeing's chairman and chief, but Albaugh has headed either Boeing's defence or commercial sectors for a decade. At Lockheed Martin, Bob Stevens is departing in a process that has grown complicated. His appointed heir, Chris Kubasik, had to step down after admitting an improper relationship with another Lockheed employee.
The result is one of the most significant leadership transitions in the US aerospace industry in more than a decade, and it comes at a pivotal moment. Today's industry leaders face the certainty of a declining defence budget, a structural change requiring different management skills than the kind exercised in relative prosperity.
On the civil side, booming output and complex supply chains create their own management pressures. No company was more exposed to such risks than Spirit, and the $590 million write-down recorded in the third quarter offers a glimpse of the potential pitfalls.
Leadership turnover can be traumatic, but also a sign of a healthy industry. Change at the top appears to be occurring more rapidly across Fortune 500 companies. A study earlier this year by The Conference Board found that the tenure of chief executives in 2011 declined by a year compared with the 10-year average. Perhaps boards are getting tougher, learning from the financial crisis that their accountability role cannot be ignored. Another healthy sign is the ascension of Marillyn Hewson (above) to the CEO suite at Lockheed's headquarters, becoming the first woman to lead one of the big-five aerospace and defence contractors in the USA. As she is rightly welcomed, she should also be warned. For her, like the rest of her chief executive colleagues, the job is harder and riskier than ever.

(This first appeared as a leader in the 27 November 2012 issue of Flight International)

Chinese takeaway
A long queue built up at the Boeing stand at the recent Zhuhai air show, where a dual-language version of our 747-8 poster was being given out.Flight booze ban ...vodka prospect
Russian airlines to ban vodka? Well not quite. But relieving the tedium on 10h flights over the Steppes with a few sneaky slugs of the national tipple is set to become harder.
The spoilsports at Russia's aviation ministry plan to stop passengers carrying duty-free and other alcohol purchases onboard - something to do with the hundreds of air rage and other disruptive incidents a year attributed to the demon drink on Russian flights.
Instead, duty-free and other purchases will have to be handed to cabin crew for safekeeping. We trust the same rules will apply to pilots.

Ad nauseum
Meanwhile, from Russia's neighbour, a warning not to believe everything on
social media.
This alleged advert from Ukraine International Airlines - "combining" the most famous statues of New York and Rio de Janeiro - has been doing the rounds on Twitter, prompting furious responses in some quarters.
But lest anyone accuses the carrier of (at best) bad taste, we are assured it is a fake - by an artist experimenting with some controversial advertising concepts.

Shock and door
Barack Obama famously axed the VXX programme to replace the Marine One fleet of presidential helicopters, as its current Sikorsky VH-3s are just fine. But it was red faces (literally) on the White House lawn, when two secret service agents were photographed trying to haul shut the front door of one aircraft after the rope supporting its steps snapped.
CBS News White House correspondent Mark Knoller (@markknoller) posted the picture on Twitter.

Moon reunion
Forty years after man last walked on the Moon, the San Diego Air & Space Museum is marking the anniversary of the Apollo 17 mission on 1 December with a reunion of the surviving crew - and a chance for the public to meet them.
Gene Cernan and Jack Schmitt will join the family of the late Ron Evans for an evening which will celebrate the entire US space programme. Other guests include Buzz Aldrin (Apollo 11), Dick Gordon (Apollo 12), Charlie Duke (Apollo 16) and Scott Carpenter who flew as part of the original Mercury missions.
The recent passing of Neil Armstrong was a reminder that this daring band of lunar adventurers is getting smaller with every year. Catch them while you can.
As the last astronaut to step off the Moon in 1972, Cernan predicted that man would return "we believe not too long into the future". We wonder if he ever suspected he would be celebrating that moment's 40th anniversary without any indication that the USA - or
any other country for that matter - will ever go back.

Attention pleas
Pilots employ various ways to persuade bored passengers to pay attention to the safety video. This Captain Speaking made us smile: "It won't win any Oscars, but it will save your life in an emergency."

Fans of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner - in fact anyone interested in the most innovative and fastest-selling new airliner of recent times - will not want to miss our 11 December issue.

We have flown the composite aircraft and test pilot Paul Smith will be giving his impressions in a comprehensive report, which will also be available to view on flightglobal.com from Friday 7 December (17.00h UK time). We are under strict embargo not to say anything about the flight test until then, save to say that it made a big impression on Smith, a veteran former US Air Force test pilot who has flown numerous types.

And, if you're an subscriber to our tablet edition, you can enjoy an enhanced version of the flight test on your iPad - available for download Saturday 8 December.

This week's Flight International (27 November) has a special feature on Swedish industry, with a particular focus on Saab Aerospace and its flagship Gripen combat aircraft. The single-engine jet marked a significant change for the country's foreign policy when it performed reconnaisance services as part of the 2011 NATO campaign in Libya. Craig Hoyle looks at its role in a significantly reduced Swedish air force inventory.

We also interview Saab bosses about the company's new focus on international markets - the company now makes 70% of its revenues from overseas and just 30% from Sweden, a complete about face from a decade ago. And Dan Thisdell examines how the acquisition of Volvo Aero will help the UK's GKN create a globally-competitive engine components business.

In a special feature package on military training, Dave Majumdar asks whether simulators can ever replace real aircraft when it comes to teaching pilots at the sharp end. As a senior US navy training officer says: "You can't put the fear of dying in the sim." Meanwhile, Zach Rosenberg gets an update on how the US Army is training staff to fly unmanned air vehicles.

In news this week: Eurocopter sets a February deadline for the EC225's return, ICAO warns of air traffic management paralysis, and US Marines stand up the first F-35B unit.

We've just published our latest interactive magazine, on the training market. You can view the publication, sponsored by Pan Am International Flight Academy, at www.flightglobal.com/trainingmag

Highlights include an interactive map showing major loss of control accidents in recent years. Teaching flightcrew strategies to deal with such incidents is seen by many as a vital addition to the normal pilot training syllabus. A video by operations and safety editor David Learmount accompanies the piece.

There is also a video featuring our reporter Dave Majumdar who underwent upset recovery training in a light aircraft over the Arizona desert.

Pan Am International Aviation Academy's head of sales and marketing Greg Darrow talks on video about changing shape of pilot training and there is also an article about pilot training in China, where airlines need to bring on stream thousands of local first officers.

There is news about British Airways' latest cadet scheme and a programme to identify young would-be pilots with potential. You can watch footage of Boeing 737 pilots learning how to deal with a simulated engine stall, and cabin crew training for an aircraft evacuation.

 

Aeroflot signs up for nostalgia

For all the jokes that were made in the West about Aeroflot during the Soviet era - from its in-flight catering (chicken à la Aeroflot), to its humourless hostesses and suspect safety record - there remains a lot of nostalgia in Russia for the glory days of its flag carrier, when it was the only show in town and ferried millions of citizens to their annual Black Sea holiday.

So much so that Aeroflot passengers have voted on Facebook for one of the airline's new Airbus A320s to be delivered in 2013 to carry a retro livery - namely the one that its Tupolev Tu-104s used to sport from the late 1950s - as part of celebrations to mark the carrier's 90th anniversary.

Nostalgia, however, only goes so far... as the SkyTeam carrier's current almost entirely Airbus and Boeing fleet would suggest.

Mouse hunting

Thanks to Chris Barnes for sending in this Tibet Airlines safety card. "Several scenarios sprang to mind," he remarks.

"Firstly, I have not had a pet mouse for 61 years, excepting a computer device.

"Secondly, how am I going to get a wet cloth during emergency egress?

"And third, smog is bad enough in China but I can just imagine passengers leapfrogging over me as I crawl to the exit."

787 in a hurry

We love Qatar Airways' speeded-up video of the making of its first 787, delivered to Doha last week and which you can view on facebook.com/qatarairways

Bet Boeing wishes it could have employed the same sort of magic during the long-delayed Dreamliner certification programme.

Ex-SAS-perating

From an embedded advert
on an aviation forum thread discussing troubled Scandinavian flag carrier SAS:

"Free bankruptcy calculator: Do you qualify?"

Spelling it out

The acronym for this crime-watch initiative sign spotted at Stansted airport might be a bit forced, but we enjoyed it.

Sadly, defence cuts mean plans to station an RAF E-3D Sentry permanently above the London low-cost airport are still on ice.

Scent of a story

It's always pleasing when we make the national media, but we cringed when a UK satirical radio quiz picked up this cutting from Budgie News: "German investigators have disclosed that both pilots of a Germanwings Airbus A319 were badly affected by fumes while approaching Cologne..."

　

One senior Airbus executive, during a dinner in Toulouse in May, seemed aghast at the suggestion the airframer might view the A350-800 as the runt of the litter: "That's like asking which of your children you love the least!"
But even Airbus must be struggling to suspend disbelief regarding its public insistence that the -800 has a future. Because it's hard to imagine that, given the choice, the airframer really wants to divert resources to the cut-and-shut version of the -900 when the challenge of the -1000 is looming, particularly given the uncertainty of Boeing's schedule for the upgraded 777X and the pressure of -900 production ramp-up.
By prying Qatar Airways away from its launch order, the airframer has halved the number of -800s that once featured on its books and taken the backlog down to double figures. Psychological barriers aside, Qatar's defection also removes a lynchpin order for the type and undermines the economic case for satisfying the remaining customer base.
Aeroflot and US Airways have been left to defend the -800's position but their collective orders look increasingly exposed, especially given that some of the outstanding customers have already partly converted, while others have undergone significant changes in circumstances. Don't be surprised if, like Boeing with the 787-3, Airbus rethinks its family values.

Ever since the European Union declared - many years ago - that it was going to impose its concept of an emissions trading system on foreign air carriers that operate to Europe, the question on people's minds has been this: does the European Commission really think the rest of the world will suddenly realise the intrinsic goodness of this idea and agree to it?
Europe still purports to believe the rest of the world will fall into line, hence its suspension of the system for a year for intercontinental flights. However, it is not clear on what evidence the EU should believe that, in a year's time, the rest of the world will be converted.
Non-EU countries have said unanimously that the ETS proposal is, per se, illegal and a violation of their sovereignty - but it is not. The EU is entitled to impose EU law on those who operate within it. However, questions arise as to the legality of the EU's demand that airlines trade the emissions for their entire flight, even if only 10 minutes of it is in EU airspace - and that is the factor they all dispute. Therefore, the EU demand is not essentially illegal, it is just totally unworkable.
Calculating emissions on the small proportion of a long-haul flight from Singapore spent in EU airspace would be an intolerable bureaucratic burden with a trifling environmental benefit, plus the risk that any benefit might be negated by airlines routing further before entry to EU airspace to engineer a shorter passage within it.
There is a respected system by which nations are able to reach agreement on global aviation practice, so why the EU thought it could blithely ignore the ICAO route is, to say the least, puzzling. Nothing happens fast at ICAO, of course. Patience: getting global consensus takes time, but once reached, it works.
This debacle is making the EU look both politically arrogant and inept, which is an unattractive combination. Civil servants are paid to dream up systems such as the ETS to offer up to their political masters for consideration and, until the 2008 global financial crash, EU politicians were gazing into a golden future in which Europe would lead the world in green policy-making. The politicians, however, have been reluctant to admit the ETS is unworkable.
A non-bureaucratic solution would be for all states to agree to levy a single tax rate for fuel used on international flights. But, of course, none of that revenue would ever go to environmental causes.

(This first appeared as a Comment piece in 20 November Flight International)

For this week's cover story, reporter Dave Majumdar has been getting a little upset - undergoing upset recovery training over the Arizona desert with training company APS. Although it was a lot of fun, it had a very serious side. Loss of control - often a failure to recover from an in-flight upset - is the biggest factor in commercial aviation accidents.

Also as part of the pilot training package, David Learmount also looks at the lessons to be learned for the pilot community from the Air France 447 crash over the Atlantic in 2009 - and in particular whether pilots need to be trained in a different way.

Finally, Learmount asks whether the airline industry can recruit and train the new pilots it needs for a predicted doubling of the world airliner fleet by 2030.

In news, we have a report from the Zhuhai air show in China, where Comac set out its ambitions for the single-aisle market and local manufacturer CAIGA unveiled the country's first home-grown business aircraft. We find out why Boeing is intensifying its 787-10X sales pitch and what the prospects are for the Airbus A350-800 following the decision by two more airlines to swap commitments for the larger -900 variant. Plus: what now for Europe's landmark aviation environment initiative after the ETS is put on hold for a year?

If you buy just one issue of Flight International this year, make sure it's 11 December. We've just been flying the Boeing 787 Dreamliner in Seattle and our test pilot Paul Smith's full report - along with pictures from the day - will be our cover story. You will also be able to read the report on flightglobal.com from 17.00h UK time on the 7 December and - if you are not a Flight International subscriber but have access to an iPad - buy and download our tablet edition (search for the Flight International app). Just to whet your appetite, here's a sneak preview: 

 

And if that wasn't enough, the 11 December issue will also contain defence editor Craig Hoyle's comprehensive annual World Air Forces directory, a guide to the inventories and orders of every global air arm.

Centrepiece of the 13 November issue of Flight International is a cutaway poster and accompanying technical description of the Boeing 747-8. It has been getting on for half a century since the original jumbo jet graced the skies, but Boeing's latest version of its largest airliner is a very different beast to its predecessors. Discover the anatomy of Seattle's Queen of the Skies with our detailed technical drawing of its structure.

This week's issue also contains a special feature on Italy's aerospace industry, with articles on Finmeccanica strategy and a detailed look at two of the national champion's key businesses: AgustaWestland and Alenia Aermacchi. Two important first-tier suppliers are also profiled: engine systems maker Avio and Mecaer, the helicopter interiors to landing gear manufacturer.

Plus, in news: the implications of the latest delay to the Bombardier CSeries, how Hawker's demise will hit EADS, and oil workers sceptical about EC225 safety.

fin-p5-cover.pdf

Over the sea but not that far away
Is the UK's orange-iest low-cost airline taking off into the transatlantic long-haul market?
Our air transport team got very excited when this link to a news story on the website of industry organisation ADS arrived in their inbox:
easyjet-launches-new-jersey-route-from-newcastle.
Sadly, the Jersey in question is not "Noo Joyzey", home to New York City's second hub, Newark, but the rather closer-to-home channel island.

Fools Russian?
Just before piling up the sandbags and bulk-buying cans of soup, a former East Coast colleague noticed this graphic (below) on flightradar24.
It shows a lonely Aeroflot A330 en route from Moscow to Cuba, flying directly into the hurricane on 28 October. It was the only aircraft on the flight tracking system over the entire mid-Atlantic.
It seems the Russians were not quite as impressed by Superstorm Sandy as the rest of the world's airlines.

Bunker mentality
From the latest issue of Lufthansa's Policy Brief:
"Golf states such as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are pursuing an aggressive growth policy with air transport at its core."
Presumably that's a green policy which is on course.

To fly, too suave
British Airways' Airbus A319s (right) have donned rather dashing moustaches to support Movember, a month-long campaign to encourage men to grow hair on their upper lip to raise money for cancer charities.
Many employees are doing the same. It is the second year BA has got involved in Movember. Last year it raised £80,000 for prostate cancer, the disease that killed former chief executive Lord Marshall.

Happy 31st!
Hold that front page. A well-known US firm's release proudly announces the 31st anniversary of the company's incorporation. But what will they celebrate next year?

Pan Amemories
We had a chance to visit the wonderful Pan Am store in the Miami headquarters of Pan Am International Flight Training.
Although it has nothing to do with its former airline parent, PAIFA gives the space to the charity that runs the store, and it is filled with a cornucopia of original, and remade, Pan Am merchandise and memorabilia, from stewardess's flightbags to original instruments - most of it, but not all, for sale.
The charity, run by former Pan Am employees, is trying to raise funds to establish a permanent museum in Miami to the iconic airline.

 

EADS has posted a robust set of third-quarter financials, with its Airbus, Eurocopter and Astrium divisions more than offsetting the lagging Cassidian military unit. Most encouragingly, profitability is continuing an upswing that should carry it from woefully poor to acceptable, if not eventually good, especially given projections for strong civil market growth.
But while the overall picture is bright, there are some dark shadows to exercise management minds.
As the results were being given their final once-over, German prosecutors raided EADS offices for evidence of alleged bribery related to the sale of Eurofighter ­Typhoons to Austria. Such may be the hazards of trading in weapons and nothing may come of the investigation, but coming only weeks after a plan to merge with BAE Systems was scrapped it highlights EADS's challenge in defence. EADS says there will be no major acquisitions or mergers soon and dismissed talk of a strategic review, but there is simply no cause to expect that Cassidian as it is will grow to become a serious defence player.
EADS could, of course, abandon its vision of creating a strong defence business, and rely on Airbus to carry the company. But as is also shown by the latest numbers - including a ferocious rate of cash burn to fuel airliner programmes - aerospace is a volatile and expensive business. Anybody who assumes the civil side will always carry the day is dreaming.

(This first appeared as a leader in 13 November Flight International)

Bombardier's CSeries has become the latest all-new airliner to suffer arrested development, with confirmation of an inevitable delay to its first-flight schedule. And for most observers this news will come as no surprise, given the problems Bombardier's heavy metal peers have all suffered when trying to transition new designs from drawing board to reality.
But while the delay - currently put at up to six months - was to be expected, the consequences are potentially more serious for the Canadian manufacturer than they were for its rivals.
If you doubt whether the CSeries is a game-changer, just ask Airbus. Toulouse would probably have got away without having to launch a re-engined A320 so soon had it not been for those pesky Canadians and their little geared-turbofan-powered mainline jet. That move triggered a response from Boeing and - very soon, probably - one from Embraer too.
But despite ruffling all its rivals' feathers, CSeries sales - to top-tier customers at least - have been sluggish. "Looks great on paper, but the proof is in the flying," is the consensus from many potential buyers. In other words, Bombardier needs to get the aircraft, and its advanced-technology engines, into the air and all those brochure promises confirmed.
And while the company was a pioneer through its Canadair predecessor of regional jet development, it has now wrung just about as much as it can out of the CRJ airframe. Sales of this once big cash generator have slowed dramatically and, frankly, the CSeries cannot come soon enough to fill the void.
Airframers do not bank the major stash of cash from an order until the "transfer of title" to the customer. And by current reckoning that will not happen on a CSeries before mid-2014 at the earliest. The CRJ backlog is diminishing fast and while sales of QSeries turboprops have picked up, Bombardier's Commercial Aircraft arm faces a battle not to run out of oxygen before it can switch on a new supply from CSeries deliveries in 18 months' time.
Cash flow aside, Bombardier must also protect what is left of the significant head start it has held over its rivals. Before the delay, the first CS100 was due to be delivered in late 2013 - almost two years before the A320neo and four ahead of the 737 Max. The delay means that lead has been cut by six months, and with the shark fins circulating around Montreal, Bombardier does not need reminding that it cannot afford any more.

(This first appeared as the main leading article in 13 November issue of Flight International)

It would be hard to dream up a more soul-sapping experience than flying commercial in the USA: demeaning security checks with their bewildering rules, flight attendants who are in an even worse mood than you, and hub-and-spoke networks that require two or more connections to reach your destination.
That - simply - is why business aviation exists. While sheikhs and oligarchs may treat corporate jets as status symbols to fly for family holidays to the Maldives, in the industry's biggest market the vast majority of business aircraft trips are for just that - business.
Whether it is the self-employed architect flying himself to a client in a Cirrus SR22 or the corporate financiers jetting in on a Gulfstream to hammer out details of a billion-dollar acquisition, business aviation oils the gears of America's economy every day.
It may be more tolerable than being herded through bowels of sprawling airports to sit surrounded by fellow sufferers in a long tube. But, by providing a means of getting from A to B without going through C and D, business aviation's real unique selling point is time - time that can be spent creating jobs and wealth.
That is why the National Business Aviation Association is right to keep pressing this message in its No Plane No Gain campaign and why - despite its glamorous image - the real point of business aviation is to give business people more hours to do what they do best.

(This first appeared as a Flight International leader in our 6 November issue)

Ask Comac about the delivery schedule for its ARJ21 and C919 aircraft programmes and there is a good chance you will not get a reply. Go a step further and question how the C919 will compete against the re-engined variants of the A320 and Boeing 737 and it will be made clear that you have touched a nerve.
When Flight International had an exclusive tour of the Comac facilities in Shanghai, one thing was obvious: the four-year-old rookie is tired of being "unrealistically compared" to Boeing and Airbus, which have several decades' worth of experience in airliner programmes.
Not many seem to grasp that the Chinese state-owned airframer does not live in a bubble. It knows that the world is watching China's civil aircraft programmes, and that many doubt they will be successful.  
What it wants them to understand, though, is that the C919 is not meant to be a game changer. It is a state-run programme that is meant to give them experience in developing an aircraft from scratch, and eventually bring a competitive edge to future programmes. Getting the C919 flying and certified is but a first step towards their ambition of becoming a world-class airframer.
But Comac is realistic. It knows it is too far behind to see itself as competing with established players. Its inexperience shows in the ARJ21 programme: it appears not to fully understand certification processes and requirements. It lacks the equipment needed for tests, leading to the delays in getting the regional jet to market.
But the aim is not as much to compete against the A320 and the 737 as it is to get a Chinese-built commercial aircraft flying. Aware of its limitations, Comac has engaged many foreign companies as suppliers for the C919.
Have no doubt, however, that China has set its sights on becoming an aerospace power.  From what Flight International saw, no expense has been spared in building assembly lines and research centres. Those employed at joint ventures with Western suppliers are also accumulating precious knowledge and experience that can be brought to bear in future programmes.
There is an energy within the organisation that is hard to ignore. The employees, a number of whom have been with the company since its formation in 2008, seem to have been inspired by its vision of getting Chinese-built commercial aircraft into the skies.
Comac may not be competitive at this point, but one official put it succinctly when he told Flight International: "This is not a 100 metres dash." Playing the long game may well be Comac's path to success.

(This first appeared as the main leader in Flight International 6 November)

There is a bumper issue of Flight International this week (6 November), with a feature package on aviation and aerospace in China to coincide with next week's Zhuhai air show. It includes updates on:

• China's indigenous airliners, the C919 and the ARJ21
• The country's air defence programmes, including the J-21 and its new aircraft carrier
• Airbus's and Boeing's sales prospects in the region
• China's MRO infrastructure
• Leasing airliners in China
• Chinese business aviation and general aviation
• Chinese airports

And if that isn't enough, the second part of our World Airliners special report, focuses on regional and smaller types. We look at:

• The 50-seat market
• New small turboprops
• Possible 90-seat turboprop developments from ATR, Bombardier and Embraer
• STOL twin-props
• Russian and Chinese regionals
• Small cargo aircraft

There's also a special supplement on finding an aviation job in China and a six-page report on the NBAA show.

In news, the big stories are delays to American Airlines' 777s, Bombardier's efforts to raise the ceiling of the CSeries and the latest repercussions of the EC225 North Sea ditching.

Valediction for the Vulcan
Sad confirmation reaches us that the last airworthy Avro Vulcan bomber will complete its final flying season next year.
The departure from the skies of XH558 has, of course, been long predicted and only the valiant fundraising efforts of the Vulcan to the Sky Trust has kept the aircraft delighting the crowds at air shows for so long.
However, 2013 will be its valedictory season as the bomber is reaching the end of its finite flying life.
Since its restoration in 2007, XH558 has been seen by more than 10 million people at 60 air shows and other locations, including during the Queen's Diamond Jubilee.
The Vulcan's retirement is not inevitable. Another £200,000 ($320,000) would have been needed to modify the aircraft's wings and increase her flying life, but Vulcan to the Sky Trust chief executive Dr Robert Pleming has told supporters such an effort would not be worth it.
"We know that you would do your upmost to fund this work, but for a number of reasons we have decided not to ask you to take this risk," he says.
So next summer, if you are in the UK, see and hear one of the Cold War's true surviving icons in its natural environment for the last time... if you can.

Canteen culture
In a magnificent demonstration of the multi-party integration on which its entire operation depends, Airbus's canteen in Toulouse gave a certain amount of grief to the host of a press pack which, having toured the assembly line in mid-October, had taken the opportunity to drop in for lunch.
Something about the canteen in question being allocated to Airbus France while the host was officially from Airbus Central Entity.
When it's tricky to sort out the workshare between the kitchens, it's hardly surprising that the EADS-BAE merger proved too much to swallow.

Where in the world?
Book a flight with this Australian travel agency (below) and you might find yourself on a proper mystery tour.
The seemingly generic aircraft photo World Flight Centre has chosen for its publicity is none other than a Janet Boeing 737.
Janet is the charter airline that shuttles employees from Las Vegas to the US government's highly secretive Area 51 in deepest Nevada. Janet - its radio callsign - doesn't go in much for publicity. Its aircraft are identifiable only by a single red stripe - there is no other insignia - and they ferry passengers from a secure terminal at a far corner of the city's airport.
Thanks to Andrew McLaughlin for the photograph.

 

Faster Felix
Impressive though Felix Baumgartner's recent jump was from a balloon more than 38km above the earth - a stunt that saw him fall faster than the speed of sound at one point - it was not as physics-defying as media network NBC suggested.
"Fearless Felix travelled faster than the speed of light," the MSNBC website caption proclaimed.  

Steady on...
To NBAA this week, where, among the cocktail bashes and pool-side splashes is an invite to a party being hosted by UAT.
It is launching an unusual attitude training course for pilots at the convention.
We suspect some of the NBAA delegates who tread the cocktail circuit a bit too enthusiastically may need some help in coping with unusual attitude themselves.

Weather changes spectacularly on the Great Plains. A flood disappears as fast as the next drought arrives. So it is with the Wichita aviation cluster. This, community, nearly a century old, has wondered if the post-2007 downturn is the hardest yet.
Severing a relationship dating from 1929, Boeing's brand will withdraw from Wichita in 2014. Meanwhile, Hawker Beechcraft is struggling to redefine itself before it is too late. The iconic Beech brand may still endure, but in what form nobody is certain.
Yet hope remains. Aerostructures specialist and Boeing spin-off Spirit AeroSystems now dominates the cluster's fortunes - and this is one of those cyclical "better" times. Wichita's entire aviation community rises now on the strength of Spirit's fast-growing backlog from an increasingly diverse mix of aircraft. Wichita's plan to survive is no longer dependent solely on the whims of any single aviation market. And when the business aviation market recovers, Wichita will be better prepared than ever. Unhealthy businesses have been shed and a training pipeline for skilled labour exists.
This is good news for the aviation industry as a whole. This medium-sized Kansas city has a depth of experience, skill and talent that cannot be transplanted to a lower-cost market, or replaced by new competitors with only a fraction of Wichita's lifespan. The winds in Wichita are changing - this time in the cluster's favour.

Embedded in the agreement that committed Singapore Airlines to acquiring five more Airbus A380s and 20 A350s was an undertaking by the airframer to buy back the carrier's five A340-500s. Embedded in the agreement that committed Singapore Airlines to acquiring five more Airbus A380s and 20 A350s was an undertaking by the airframer to buy back the carrier's five A340-500s. In the fuss created by blue-chip endorsements of flagship airliners, this detail may have been overlooked, but it heralds an important, if unsurprising, decision. Plainly, SIA has finally opted to throw in the towel on its ultra-long-haul transpacific experiment. That will happen at the end of next year - and comes as little surprise.
It was a bold attempt to open up a new frontier with nonstop connections between SIA's Changi hub and the USA, and the innovative carrier's perseverance is to be admired. However, it was an open secret that the five-strong A340-500 fleet was failing to turn a profit when deployed on flights of up to 19h, serving Los Angeles and Newark. Even a change of strategy to all-business-class service in an effort to boost yields failed to stem the flow of red ink.
Given that SIA is not alone in its desire to abandon the A340-500 for transpacific routes - Thai Airways is also retiring its four aircraft - there is less than robust demand for the type on the second-hand market. SIA has understandably jumped at the chance to cut its losses and hand the A340s back to Airbus in return for topping up its fleets of Airbus's newer widebodies.
So what of the future for the loudly trumpeted ultra-long-haul niche? Boeing's equivalent 777-200LR twinjet - which, unlike the A340, remains in production - has achieved a degree of success serving the needs of the rapidly expanding Gulf network carriers, as well as the likes of Air Canada, Delta Air Lines and Ethiopian Airlines. However, there have been misses, too, with Air India deciding to put the majority of its -200LR fleet up for sale.
Ultra-long haul has effectively become a niche within a niche, as relatively few routes have been demonstrated to be capable of commanding the ticket-price premium that is essential to offset the fuel penalties. The concept was marginal at best when fuel was as low as $40 a barrel five years ago. At today's price of $100-plus, sustainable profits seem utterly out of reach - perhaps forever.
Meanwhile questions remain over whether the travelling public has the stomach for remaining aloft for such a long time. The world may have to wait for a "son of Sonic Cruiser" before the ultra-long haul finds a strong foothold in the mainstream.

(This article first appeared as the leading article in the 30 October issue of Flight International)

We've all suffered them: the taxi drivers who subject you to their robust views on politics whether you want them or not. The fact that the US presidential election was less than two weeks away and Barack Obama had just flown into town on a campaign visit cut short by concerns about the worsening weather situation in the northeast made it perhaps inevitable that Obama's performance would be the main topic of conversation during my 25min taxi ride in Orlando.

The taxi driver was not a fan of the President, but neither was he a ranting bigot (There are plenty of them in Orlando. One campaign billboard suggested Obama should "go back to Africa"). I was in town for the National Business Aviation Association convention, and my driver's biggest complaint with Obama was the sclerotic economy. The Florida resort is one of the USA's main convention locations, and he said he regularly drove CEOs and other senior businessmen. Virtually all of them said that their companies were sitting on piles of cash, but didn't want to spend it - on corporate jets, new factories or expensive machinery - until they were certain the economy was heading in the right direction.

It's a frustration that the business aviation industry in the USA frequently notes. US corporates have been doing reasonably well since the worst of the recession in 2009 and 2010, and ought to be replacing more aircraft than they are. But after becoming more lean and mean in the downturn, many have been steadily making profits and squirreling these away rather than investing them in capital or creating jobs.

And my cabbie's political views did not seem to be coloured by personal experience. Very often in the past few years you will hear tales told by taxi drivers of thriving businesses gone to the wall, homes under threat of repossession and having to work all hours behind the wheel just to make ends meet. On the contrary, he said, Orlando's economy was booming. Convention business is up; the tourists keep coming, and the city's knowledge sector - universities, software developers and other high tech firms - is thriving. Taking a taxi in Orlando is not cheap and my driver said he was not short of work.

Florida is one of the key swing states in the election...and to win it Obama will need to convince enough voters that things are getting better. But whoever wins, the hope - for business jet makers at least - is that getting the election out of the way will trigger some of these corporates to dig into their pockets and get spending.