Murdo Morrison: February 2013 Archives

Boris's hub is short of billions
Some confusion over London Mayor Boris Johnson's planned tour of the Middle East to raise funds for a new super-hub airport in the Thames Estuary, with the London Evening Standard claiming he will attempt to raise up to £80 million ($145 million) from Gulf states to cover "the cost of terminals, runways, ancillary facilities and rail and road access".
Now £80 million might seem a number with a lot of noughts in it, but it is not going to get you very far when it comes to building an international airport: Heathrow's Terminal 5 alone cost over £4 billion.
We reckon £80 million might just about see Boris right if he had a landing strip with a few prefab hangars in mind for his global hub.
The Standard's online version makes a bit more sense, adding three noughts to the £80 million estimate, although by the time you get to paragraph three, it's back to seven figures again. Oh, well, Boris, there's always "London" Manston.

A fare bet
Ryanair's latest revenue wheeze? Giving passengers their money back. Just one hitch. For a chance of winning the price of your ticket, you have to stump up an extra €3, €4, or €5 when you make your booking...assuming - before taxes, baggage and booking fee - your original ticket cost more than that.
Ryanair is pretty cagey on what the odds are, although it says it guarantees three winners a week.
Having a flutter on one of Mr O'Leary's horses might be a better bet.

Count them in
The latest aircraft to arrive at  the soon-to-open Classic Air Force collection at Newquay Cornwall airport is this former Swiss air force de Havilland Vampire twin-seat trainer, G-HELV (below).
The Vampire, with its distinctive twin boom, was the second jet fighter to enter service with the RAF, although it arrived too late to see combat during the Second World War.
Almost 3,300 were built, a quarter of them under licence overseas. The Classic Air Force opens at the end of March.

Wellington boost
On the subject of museums, some good news from Brooklands in Weybridge near London, run by Allan Winn, formerly of this parish.
It has been awarded £4.85 million from the Heritage Lottery Fund for a project to relocate and restore the museum's listed Wellington Hangar as the Brooklands Aircraft Factory, with a new annexe to house more of its collection of historic aircraft.
As part of the plan, the original racetrack - on which the hangar currently stands - will also be restored.

Snail mail
Hooray for air freight! A US aircraft manufacturer's Christmas card - envelope stamped "International priority airmail" - arrives at our offices on 11 February. Perhaps it was simply 10 months early.

Our Image of the Day blog carried a Dutch ministry of defence shot of a Boeing CH-74 Chinook. On The DEW Line, Craig Hoyle wrote about UK prime minister David Cameron's trade tour of India, which included a fresh attempt to derail Dassault's apparent victory in the nation's medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) contest: "The timing really couldn't have been any worse, with Cameron having arrived on the sub-continent just days after Finmeccanica chief executive Giuseppe Orsi was arrested as part of an investigation linked to the sale of 12 AgustaWestland AW101 helicopters. While that's an ongoing legal matter for the Italian and Indian authorities, the fact that the VVIP transports are being built at the company's Yeovil site in the UK will not have been lost on critics. That's likely to mean more bad news re MMRCA, I suspect."

This article first appeared as a Comment in the 26 February 2013 issue of Flight International

Former Airbus chief Tom Enders was referring to the A380 wing ribs when, in one of his outgoing speeches, he talked about the treacherous-but-tempting path signposted "Innovation".
"You're walking a tightrope," he said. Long, ambitious strides carry the risk of falling while safe pigeon-steps leave you vulnerable to braver competitors.
How much more easily could he have made the same analogy - with the irresistible substitution of "wire" for "tightrope" - regarding the Boeing 787's departure from conventional electrical design?
Airbus's John Leahy has openly admitted being entranced by the prospect of all-electric architecture on the A350, only to be encouraged back by the airframer's engineering teams, wary of the pitfalls that accompany the lure of changing the game.
After it chose not to overreach with the A350, a lesson imparted by harsh A380 experience, Airbus's switch to nickel-cadmium batteries amounts, in comparison, to a relatively easy bit of bullet-dodging.
While the swap highlights the lack of an equally simple escape route for Boeing, the Airbus decision is certain to have been based on securing its own position rather than undermining its rival's. The A350 programme is under enough pressure, and the Europeans have opted, if not for the devil they know, then at least for one with whom they have an acquaintance.

The following article first appeared as a leader in Flight International 26 February 2013.

It was a question about helicopters that flustered Indian defence minister AK Antony at the recent Aero India show. A journalist asked about the interminable competition for 197 reconnaissance and surveillance helicopters (RSH). "This is a question for the defence acquisition council," said Antony brusquely. "The DAC will take a decision." Next day, Air Chief Marshal NAK Browne brushed the same question off. "This is up to the DAC," he said, quickly moving to the next question. A source close to the contest said these comments about the DAC "mean nothing"; Antony chairs the DAC.
While the competition between Eurocopter's
AS550 C3 Fennec and Russia's Kamov KA-226T
remains in limbo, Indian pilots fly obsolete Cheetahs and Cheetaks.
RSH delays are old hat. What did make headlines the week after the show was news that Finmeccanica head Giuseppe Orsi and Bruno Spagnolini, his counterpart at AgustaWestland, had been arrested in Italy for alleged corruption relating to India's order of 12 VIP-configured AgustaWestland AW101s. Orsi headed Finmeccanica's helicopter unit at the time of the 2010 deal.
The RSH and AW101 scandals are separate, but both are emblematic of India's murky, tortuous acquisition process. Finmeccanica and AgustaWestland adamantly deny any improprieties; still, only days after the arrests New Delhi said it would cancel the AW101 deal, even though Italian investigators have yet to substantiate the allegations, and New Delhi has received three AW101s, which fills an important requirement.
The need for the RSH is even more pressing. At New Delhi's Defexpo show in 2012, Eurocopter chief Lutz Bertling could barely disguise his impatience with the RSH deal. His plea for a speedy resolution was ignored.
In fact, the AS550 C3 won a previous iteration of the $600 million requirement in 2006 - only to see this overturned in late 2007 after India's Central Vigilance Commission agreed there were "irregularities" in the deal. Eurocopter insisted the competition had been pursued with the "utmost transparency and professionalism".
The RSH and AW101 travesties are far from unique. Competitions for tankers, fighters and trainers have had their share of delays, controversies, and re-tenders.
Aside from endangering the lives of young pilots, old aircraft are expensive to maintain. Moreover, bungled acquisitions will compromise national security.
India's leadership must make the hard choice to clean up defence acquisitions.

With Heli-Expo on the horizon, the 26 February issue of Flight International homes in on the civil rotorcraft market. Our cover story is a flight test of the Sikorsky S-92, with veteran test pilot Peter Gray returning to the aircraft he first flew as a prototype in 2000 and assessing how he all-rounder has stood the test of time 13 years on.

Stephen Trimble finds out why Bell has not rung up pre-orders for the 525 Relentless super-medium twin, preferring to get the helicopter through to first flight and certification without making too much of a song and dance about its capabilities. Will its low-key approach pay off for the 8t, fly-by-wire design.

Dan Thisdell has been to Queretaro to discover why Eurocopter is the latest aerospace manufacturer to discover the benefits of moving production to this Mexican region. Meanwhile, David Learmount gets frustrated at the failure of the civil rotorcraft industry to follow the example of its fixed-wing counterparts and learn the lessons from past mistakes on safe operations. "Global helicopter safety performance appears to be sutbbornly resisting an extensive campaign to improve it," he complains.

Finally Andy Healy looks at the improvements in helicopter-based aerial photography since the "wobbly" era of the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics, and where the technology is taking us now.

In news, Airbus's top salesman John Leahy on why Boeing may have taken the wrong path on electrics and how India is defending its reputation after the Finmeccanica scandal. Plus: Craig Hoyle reports from Seville on plans for the A400M's introduction into service.

"Being stuck back here in dromedary class is really giving me the hump." Our sympathies for the chap with the bucket and mop at the end of this Il-76 flight

Iconic Cold War engine for sale
Thanks to a lucky reprieve by a scrap metal merchant some 45 years ago, you can now buy the prototype of one of the most illustrious jet engines in British aviation history on eBay. That is, if you can spare $165,000.
That's the minimum price set by Jet Art Aviation for a truly rare artefact - the original prototype of the Bristol Siddeley Olympus 22R Mk.320, which powered the short-lived British Aircraft Corporation TSR2 and was the forerunner of the engine that propelled the supersonic Concorde.
Chris Wilson, managing director of Jet Art, says the engine was rediscovered sitting on a farm in England. The owner had run a scrapping business in the 1960s, and was given a load of several engines to grind into recycled metal, a task he fortunately decided didn't deserve his usual diligence. "He said, 'I'm going to keep one,'" Wilson notes.
By luck, the scrapper happened to pick the TSR2's prototype engine, serial number 1, to spare from the grinder.
The discovery of such a rare find raised questions about how to price it. Jet Art's insurance firm refused to set a value on it, Wilson says, arguing the object is, by definition, "irreplaceable".
Perhaps fittingly, Wilson established the price based on its scrap value.
The Olympus prototype fits into a niche market for rare aviation objects. Asked who would be a likely buyer, Wilson says it is "more likely private individuals".
"It's an investment really for somebody," he adds. "Items like this generally go up in value. Money is probably safer in a rare jet engine than a bank."

Nose for it
After 5,000 flights, Rockwell Collins has donated its North American Sabreliner 50 test aircraft to Oregon's Evergreen Aviation & Space Museum. The 1964 twinjet (N50CR), was bought by Collins in 1976 and used to test many avionics programmes over the years.
Among the distinctive features added by Rockwell Collins is a large nose radome to house airborne weather radar.

Not plane sailing
Boeing isn't the only airframer plagued by a grounding problem, after the ship which conveys Airbus A380 wings from the UK to France slipped her lines on 30 January.
Calls about the Ciudad de Cadiz prompted an enigmatic admission, in Toulousian yuckspeak, that there was an "issue about its sailability" - to do with the fact that the water holding her up had clocked off from buoyancy duty leaving her perched on a sandbank.
This handed Airbus a problem of the utmost gravity. The gravity in question being the stuff which governs the tides and is one of the few things that Airbus can't deliver on demand. So it's had to bow to the lunar cycle and wait for high water to sort things out.

"Being stuck back here in dromedary class is really giving me the hump." Our sympathies for the chap with the bucket and mop at the end of this Il-76 flight

Iconic Cold War engine for sale
Thanks to a lucky reprieve by a scrap metal merchant some 45 years ago, you can now buy the prototype of one of the most illustrious jet engines in British aviation history on eBay. That is, if you can spare $165,000.
That's the minimum price set by Jet Art Aviation for a truly rare artefact - the original prototype of the Bristol Siddeley Olympus 22R Mk.320, which powered the short-lived British Aircraft Corporation TSR2 and was the forerunner of the engine that propelled the supersonic Concorde.
Chris Wilson, managing director of Jet Art, says the engine was rediscovered sitting on a farm in England. The owner had run a scrapping business in the 1960s, and was given a load of several engines to grind into recycled metal, a task he fortunately decided didn't deserve his usual diligence. "He said, 'I'm going to keep one,'" Wilson notes.
By luck, the scrapper happened to pick the TSR2's prototype engine, serial number 1, to spare from the grinder.
The discovery of such a rare find raised questions about how to price it. Jet Art's insurance firm refused to set a value on it, Wilson says, arguing the object is, by definition, "irreplaceable".
Perhaps fittingly, Wilson established the price based on its scrap value.
The Olympus prototype fits into a niche market for rare aviation objects. Asked who would be a likely buyer, Wilson says it is "more likely private individuals".
"It's an investment really for somebody," he adds. "Items like this generally go up in value. Money is probably safer in a rare jet engine than a bank."

Nose for it
After 5,000 flights, Rockwell Collins has donated its North American Sabreliner 50 test aircraft to Oregon's Evergreen Aviation & Space Museum. The 1964 twinjet (N50CR), was bought by Collins in 1976 and used to test many avionics programmes over the years.
Among the distinctive features added by Rockwell Collins is a large nose radome to house airborne weather radar.

Not plane sailing
Boeing isn't the only airframer plagued by a grounding problem, after the ship which conveys Airbus A380 wings from the UK to France slipped her lines on 30 January.
Calls about the Ciudad de Cadiz prompted an enigmatic admission, in Toulousian yuckspeak, that there was an "issue about its sailability" - to do with the fact that the water holding her up had clocked off from buoyancy duty leaving her perched on a sandbank.
This handed Airbus a problem of the utmost gravity. The gravity in question being the stuff which governs the tides and is one of the few things that Airbus can't deliver on demand. So it's had to bow to the lunar cycle and wait for high water to sort things out.

(This first appeared as a Comment article in Flight International, 19 February 2013)

Sukhoi's own technical snags with its Superjet might not have attracted the same degree of scrutiny as those affecting the Boeing 787.
But they are arguably more critical to a programme that symbolises one of the few remaining chips Russia is still able to play from its dwindling pile at the aerospace industry's gambling table.
While its first aircraft for Mexican customer Interjet is nearing completion, Sukhoi is still dealing with gripes from Aeroflot.
The airframer rightly notes that every new aircraft type experiences operational problems for the first few months - witness the mighty 787's grounding. But Sukhoi doesn't have an 800-strong backlog as testimony to customer confidence, nor has it managed to push more than about a dozen aircraft out of its factory in the space of nearly two years.
Sukhoi can't even take much solace from the home front, once a closed door to non-Soviet production. Even if the Embraer 190, newly certificated in Russia, remains a relatively expensive option, it plonks 90-seat competition firmly on Sukhoi's porch.
All this makes the Interjet debut a high-stakes affair for Sukhoi, if the airframer ever hopes to find a niche in the increasingly cut-throat regional airliner market. It's likely to find the international spotlights far brighter than the ones in Moscow.

(The following first appeared as the lead Comment in Flight International, 19 February 2013)

US Airways stands poised to join the long list of legacy airline brands, including Pan Am, Eastern, TWA, Northwest and Continental, to pass into history.
But the proposed merger of American Airlines and US Airways upsets the typical post-deregulation narrative. For the first time, an airline launched since the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 can buy the third-largest US carrier and become the largest airline in the world.
It all began in 1981, when airline consultant Ed Beauvais founded America West Airlines in Phoenix, starting humbly with three leased Boeing 737s and plans to expand to a booming Las Vegas market. Like many of its post-deregulation peers, America West introduced cross-utilisation to lower costs and onboard ticketing to attract more revenue. Unlike many of those peers, America West survived bankruptcy and reorganisation during the lean early '90s. America West actually reached a high point in growth and profitability by the late '90s, but the boom was short-lived. After 9/11, America West needed a government loan to survive.
Doug Parker, then America West's chief executive, recalled last March an agonising flight back to Phoenix from Washington DC on an America West flight. Parker's meeting earlier that day with the airline stabilisation board over the airline's pending loan request had not gone well. Parker recalled hoping the flight attendants would not recognise him, because he didn't think he could hide his concern about their company's future. The following week, America West resubmitted its loan application, and this time it was approved.
Upon regaining its strength, America West tried to take over US Airways in 2005, pulling off a reverse-merger the next year. The new airline retained the US Airways brand, but was led by the America West team.
That achievement was followed by a series of missteps, including two failed attempts to merge with Delta Air Lines and United Airlines. The bankruptcy filing by American Airlines on 31 November 2011 offered the last chance for the original America West.
If regulators approve the pending merger, many questions await. For Airbus, it means having a friendly management team in charge of the world's largest airline serving still the largest market. Parker's team must rebalance the merged carrier's domestic network, expand its international offerings and keep the unions on side.
But the US Airways victory is really the victory of the deregulation entrepreneurs of America West, now seated at the top of the global airline industry.

(The following first appeared as the lead Comment in Flight International, 19 February 2013)

US Airways stands poised to join the long list of legacy airline brands, including Pan Am, Eastern, TWA, Northwest and Continental, to pass into history.
But the proposed merger of American Airlines and US Airways upsets the typical post-deregulation narrative. For the first time, an airline launched since the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 can buy the third-largest US carrier and become the largest airline in the world.
It all began in 1981, when airline consultant Ed Beauvais founded America West Airlines in Phoenix, starting humbly with three leased Boeing 737s and plans to expand to a booming Las Vegas market. Like many of its post-deregulation peers, America West introduced cross-utilisation to lower costs and onboard ticketing to attract more revenue. Unlike many of those peers, America West survived bankruptcy and reorganisation during the lean early '90s. America West actually reached a high point in growth and profitability by the late '90s, but the boom was short-lived. After 9/11, America West needed a government loan to survive.
Doug Parker, then America West's chief executive, recalled last March an agonising flight back to Phoenix from Washington DC on an America West flight. Parker's meeting earlier that day with the airline stabilisation board over the airline's pending loan request had not gone well. Parker recalled hoping the flight attendants would not recognise him, because he didn't think he could hide his concern about their company's future. The following week, America West resubmitted its loan application, and this time it was approved.
Upon regaining its strength, America West tried to take over US Airways in 2005, pulling off a reverse-merger the next year. The new airline retained the US Airways brand, but was led by the America West team.
That achievement was followed by a series of missteps, including two failed attempts to merge with Delta Air Lines and United Airlines. The bankruptcy filing by American Airlines on 31 November 2011 offered the last chance for the original America West.
If regulators approve the pending merger, many questions await. For Airbus, it means having a friendly management team in charge of the world's largest airline serving still the largest market. Parker's team must rebalance the merged carrier's domestic network, expand its international offerings and keep the unions on side.
But the US Airways victory is really the victory of the deregulation entrepreneurs of America West, now seated at the top of the global airline industry.

(The following first appeared as the lead Comment in Flight International, 19 February 2013)

US Airways stands poised to join the long list of legacy airline brands, including Pan Am, Eastern, TWA, Northwest and Continental, to pass into history.
But the proposed merger of American Airlines and US Airways upsets the typical post-deregulation narrative. For the first time, an airline launched since the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 can buy the third-largest US carrier and become the largest airline in the world.
It all began in 1981, when airline consultant Ed Beauvais founded America West Airlines in Phoenix, starting humbly with three leased Boeing 737s and plans to expand to a booming Las Vegas market. Like many of its post-deregulation peers, America West introduced cross-utilisation to lower costs and onboard ticketing to attract more revenue. Unlike many of those peers, America West survived bankruptcy and reorganisation during the lean early '90s. America West actually reached a high point in growth and profitability by the late '90s, but the boom was short-lived. After 9/11, America West needed a government loan to survive.
Doug Parker, then America West's chief executive, recalled last March an agonising flight back to Phoenix from Washington DC on an America West flight. Parker's meeting earlier that day with the airline stabilisation board over the airline's pending loan request had not gone well. Parker recalled hoping the flight attendants would not recognise him, because he didn't think he could hide his concern about their company's future. The following week, America West resubmitted its loan application, and this time it was approved.
Upon regaining its strength, America West tried to take over US Airways in 2005, pulling off a reverse-merger the next year. The new airline retained the US Airways brand, but was led by the America West team.
That achievement was followed by a series of missteps, including two failed attempts to merge with Delta Air Lines and United Airlines. The bankruptcy filing by American Airlines on 31 November 2011 offered the last chance for the original America West.
If regulators approve the pending merger, many questions await. For Airbus, it means having a friendly management team in charge of the world's largest airline serving still the largest market. Parker's team must rebalance the merged carrier's domestic network, expand its international offerings and keep the unions on side.
But the US Airways victory is really the victory of the deregulation entrepreneurs of America West, now seated at the top of the global airline industry.

We are looking for your nominations for Aviator, Innovator and Leader of the Year in the Flightglobal Achievement Awards. We also want your suggestions for Lifetime Achievement Award.

Nominating your favourite - really - could not be easier. See what I mean by going to www.flightglobal.com/awards13

This week's commercial engine special in Flight International (19 February) gives us a great excuse to use a stunning close up of Rolls-Royce's Trent XWB, the only engine so far to power the Airbus A350. Andrew Doyle provides a programme update which looks at how the airframer and engine manufacturer are racing to get the XWB - engine and airliner - into the air in time for a debut at the Paris air show (hence the coverline).

Also in the engines package, Steve Trimble takes a detailed look at the CFM Leap engine, which is in a head-to-head contest with the Pratt & Whitney to power the new generation narrowbodies. So far, the GE/Safran joint venture has the upper hand on its rival, but with 34% of aircraft orders still to be assigned, the contest remains fierce.

In the run-up to Australia's Avalon air show, we also examine some of the big themes likely to feature there, from the country's likely decision to opt for a combination of legacy Boeing Super Hornets and latest-generation Lockheed Martin F-35s for its future fighter needs, to Australia's booming civil helicopter sector.

In news, there are stories on a successor to the Airbus Beluga transporter and Boeing's challenge to keep up output rates for the struggling 747-8.

On defence blog The DEW Line, Dave Majumdar highlighted an "awesome video from the cockpit of a VFA-103 Boeing F/A-18F Super Hornet flying off the deck of USS Dwight D Eisenhower". The footage was produced by Carrier Strike Group 8 last year. "But if the dire predictions of what might happen under sequestration come to fruition, we may not see many more videos like this in the near future," warned Majumdar. Pay a visit to flightglobal.com/superhornetvideo to enjoy it while it lasts. Elswhere on the same blog, a stunning Eurofighter shot of a Typhoon over Ferrari World in Abu Dhabi (above) ran with a post on the combat aircraft type's competitive joust with the Lockheed Martin F-35. And on Ariel View, Arie Egozi noted that Israel Aerospace Industries chief Joseph Weiss had chosen his words carefully at Aero India, where he said, "I urge my colleagues in the Israeli industries to make every effort to promote co-operation."

BA takes its tea to new heights
Tired of the laws of thermodynamics standing in the way of a decent cuppa, British Airways (come on, who else?) has started offering a new altitude-resistant blend of tea to its customers.
Let's spare you the tedious discourse on vapour pressure and the Clausius-Clapeyron equation. The upshot is that water's boiling point decreases by about 1˚C for every 935ft rise in altitude.
Black tea demands water at 100˚C, but during cruise the cabin pressure is typically set at 8,000ft equivalent altitude, which means the kettle starts whistling at a tepid 91˚C.
Tea specialist Twinings' senior buyer Mike Wright says the reduced pressure and humidity "affect the functioning of the taste buds, making things taste different".
Therefore, the company's scientists have come up with a blend of Assam, Kenyan and Ceylon tea intended to counter the problem. BA insists the tea, being served on board
from February, will "taste as good in the sky as it does on the ground".
BA is supposed to be taking delivery this year of its first Boeing 787, the design of which allows a lower cabin altitude and a higher boiling point, although this is admittedly a more capital-intensive way of making your Rosie Lee a bit less Pony and Trap.

"This is your captain speaking. We have just reached our infusing altitude"Taking the piston
Tempted to think 'elf and safety is sometimes taken to daft extremes? Take a look at this clip from a video about a restoration project on an 18-cylinder Curtiss Wright radial piston engine.
A creaking powerplant, bellowing smoke as it whirls and shudders into life on a test stand that looks like an open shed; observers standing only metres away... what could possibly go wrong?
To get the full effect watch the video at http://tinyurl.com/bxzx329 and skip to 26:10. Despite the German commentary, it's worth turning up the sound.

Spy mystery
Intriguing headline of the month on Arabian Business's website:
I don't employ spies - Qatar Airways boss.

News missile
Red faces all round on Budgie News with our revelation of India's plans to procure an Advanced Media Combat Aircraft. Will bugged celebrities be queuing up to buy one to strike back at their tabloid tormentors? As Peter Martin points out: hadn't we better warn our reporters covering the Indian air show?

What the DHL?
Pots and kettles and all that, but we thought we'd finish with a headline from AllAfrica.com:
DHL launches Boeing 737-400 Cargo Airbus.
Now that's one way of hedging your bets.

(The following first appeared as a Comment article in Flight International, 12-18 February 2013)

One thing that characterises managers in any industry or region is that they work hard to give the impression they're in control - even if they don't know what's going on. So, when they don't know what's going on and admit it, things are probably getting bad.
Alarmingly, that's a dynamic that can be observed in the aerospace industry today - but don't blame the management; the problem is with politicians in Washington DC. Their 11th-hour deal to prevent the US federal budget from going off the so-called fiscal cliff of automatic spending cuts on 1 January did nothing but push the cliff back a couple months, so a new cliff looms.
There is much to argue about the amount of money that should be spent on everything from new equipment to modernisation. But the real problem is uncertainty. The US Air Force has warned Congress that the budget impasse may force it to cut back on key programmes. Just about every recent corporate financial report has flagged up uncertainty as cause for worry.
Consultants PwC have concluded the defence aerospace industry is in need of consolidation - but important players are waiting for clarity from Washington.
The Aerospace Industries Association may not be overstating the dangers by warning that automatic budget cuts "threaten to throw the economy into a tailspin". But even without a tailspin, loss of altitude can bring danger.

(The following first appeared as a Comment article in Flight International, 12-18 February 2013)

One thing that characterises managers in any industry or region is that they work hard to give the impression they're in control - even if they don't know what's going on. So, when they don't know what's going on and admit it, things are probably getting bad.
Alarmingly, that's a dynamic that can be observed in the aerospace industry today - but don't blame the management; the problem is with politicians in Washington DC. Their 11th-hour deal to prevent the US federal budget from going off the so-called fiscal cliff of automatic spending cuts on 1 January did nothing but push the cliff back a couple months, so a new cliff looms.
There is much to argue about the amount of money that should be spent on everything from new equipment to modernisation. But the real problem is uncertainty. The US Air Force has warned Congress that the budget impasse may force it to cut back on key programmes. Just about every recent corporate financial report has flagged up uncertainty as cause for worry.
Consultants PwC have concluded the defence aerospace industry is in need of consolidation - but important players are waiting for clarity from Washington.
The Aerospace Industries Association may not be overstating the dangers by warning that automatic budget cuts "threaten to throw the economy into a tailspin". But even without a tailspin, loss of altitude can bring danger.

(The following first appeared as the lead Comment in the 12 February 2013 issue of Flight International)

Iran's rollout of its Qaher-313 "stealth fighter" is little more than a poorly executed propaganda stunt for domestic consumption. It is immediately apparent from the many photos and video imagery of the purported "advanced aircraft" with a "very small radar cross-section" that this is not a serious development. At best, it is a subscale testbed, but in reality, it is probably just a mock-up.
Perhaps the most immediate giveaway is the minuscule size of the craft, which looks to be made from crudely painted fibreglass or Dacron fabric. There appears to be no room for avionics or fuel, let alone weapons. Moreover, it's doubtful that there is an engine installed, given the lack of a nozzle and the two tiny air inlets.
The other problem for Iran would be to find an engine small enough. Options seem limited to something like the General Electric J85, which Iran has previously reverse-engineered, but without a nozzle the heat would probably set this papier-mâché mock-up alight.
Additionally, the cockpit appears to be too small in relation to the pilot. The canopy is made of what appears to be polystyrene and visibility through the material can only be described as horrendous. But the cockpit instruments are among the only items in the Qaher-313 that might be real. The Iranians appear to be using instrumentation developed for the home-build aircraft market with hardware sourced from Dynon and Garmin.
There are also no visible access panels or weapons bays. Features such as access panels are found on every aircraft for routine maintenance, and in the case of a stealth aircraft, weapons bays are a must to maintain its low-observable signature while carrying armaments. But, as one engineer familiar with low-observables design astutely points out, while superficially resembling what one might imagine a stealth aircraft to look like, the Iranian machine has serious radar cross-section (RCS) problems.
Stealth aircraft design is much more than simply mastering the low-observable shapes. Advanced materials sciences need to be developed for the aircraft's skin and coatings. Advanced analytical tools are needed to shape the internal bulkheads and other structures. Moreover, one has to master the man-machine interfaces so a pilot can manage the aircraft's RCS spikes in flight. There is no evidence that might suggest Iran has anywhere near even a rudimentary grasp of those technologies.
The mystery is how Iran's leaders might assume that they could present such a transparent farce before the eyes of the world and expect anything other than merciless mockery.

A UK Royal Air Force Panavia Tornado GR4 is the cover feature star of this week's Flight International (12 February), in which Defence Editor Craig Hoyle takes a look at what the Ministry of Defence's 10-year equipment plan means for the country's various airborne assets.

Meanwhile, Dave Majumdar examines the claims being made by Iran for its newly-unveiled "stealth fighter" and finds that this so-called flying prototype is in fact a mock-up designed for domestic propaganda purposes.

Stephen Trimble has been analysing the new battle lines emerging between Embraer and Bombardier as the Brazilian airframer prepares to roll out its revamp of its E-Jet five years after the Canadian firm unveiled its CRJ NextGen series.

The issue also has a report from Aero India in Bengaluru, where four of the big helicopter manufacturers were jostling for several upcoming maritime contests, and New Delhi was assuring the media that its deal for French Dassault Rafales remains intact, with negotiations continuing around the 126-fighter requirement.

For details on subscribing to Flight International - now available in print, digital and tablet formats - go to www.flightsubs.com/1637

St Maarten lands best approach
St Maarten in the Caribbean - where airliners cast a shadow over seaside sunbathers as they come into land - has been voted the world's most spectacular airport approach.
The holiday destination beat another island, and last year's winner, Barra in the Outer Hebrides - the only airport where scheduled aircraft land on a beach.
The other top 10 landings in the poll by privatefly.com were Los Angeles, Paro in Bhutan, Las Vegas, Phinda in South Africa, London City, Aruba, Mustique and Nice.
One voter described St Maarten as a "gorgeous approach over the clear blue sea, white sand beach with hills in the background", adding: "The beachgoers can almost touch the landing gear as planes make their landing. It's an aircraft lover's dream."

Blind panic
You would think it would be hard to confuse sliding open an aircraft window blind with activating an emergency slide - but that was the mistake made by one passenger on an Austrian Airlines Airbus A321 at Larnaca last month.
Flight OS832 had just landed in Cyprus from Austria on 25 January when the crew instructed those onboard to open the sunshades for arrival. Instead, the traveller, sitting in the second left-hand exit row, pulled the door handle inwards and upwards.
The door - which itself has just a porthole with no sunshade - opened and its evacuation slide deployed. No damage was sustained and the aircraft was able to return to Vienna after removal of the chute. But the number of passengers had to be reduced in line with regulations for flights with an inoperable escape slide.
No word on whether the suitably embarrassed passenger was tempted to make an escape down the chute.

Lear-downed
Investigators believe excessive icing contributed to the crash of a veteran but still fully serviceable Bombastic Learmount 65 on 24 January.
The Learmount - the only one of its type in operation and known for its elegant appearance and distinctive noise signature - had departed from Sutton to its overnight base in Surrey and was reaching cruising speed when it experienced an uncontrolled tumble into terrain, damaging its landing gear and putting it out of action for several weeks. Commenting on the incident from his hospital bed, where he is making a speedy recovery, Flight International's operations and safety editor noted: "Accidents of this sort, while rare, can occur in unfavourable conditions. I'm certainly not blaming the pilot."

Wings clipped
The latest review tome to hit our desk from leading military history publisher Pen & Sword is an authoritative-looking account by Martin Bowman of the US Eighth Air Force in Europe... spoiled only slightly by the glaring proofreading error on the large subtitle: The Eagle Spreads It's (sic) Wings.

Jumbo Jet
A release from Jet Aviation informs us that its Zurich FBO "handled 747 movements" during the recent World Economic Forum in Davos.
"Yes," asks Ian Goold. "But who handled all those not arriving by jumbo?"

Croaking aside
And finally, is the name of Air France's new airline - Hop - a self-deprecating national joke?

They have ranged from test pilots to mould-breaking designers, entrepreneurs to airline bosses. The search is on for the recipients of this year's Flightglobal Achievement Awards - those who have caught your eye as the star performers of 2012.

We are looking for nominations in three categories: Aviator, Innovator and Leader of the Year. You can make your suggestions now at flightglobal.com/awards13. Simply click on the category and make your nomination.

Following the nomination process, a shortlist will be drawn up and you will later have a chance to vote for the eventual winners, who will be announced at a ceremony during June's Paris air show.

Two other awards will be handed out at the event. Flightglobal editors will announce their Lifetime Achievement winner. There is also a chance for the world's brightest aerospace engineers to be recognised in the Boeing Engineering Student of the Year. Once again, the entry process is explained at flightglobal.com/awards13.

(This first appeared as the second Comment in Flight International, 5 February 2013)

Pilots have a loose term - "get-down-itis" - for the creeping desire to push an unstable approach when procedures, meteorological consideration or sheer common sense would normally demand a go-around.
However, preliminary information from the Red Wings Tupolev Tu-204 accident in Moscow might lend itself to a related strain - "stay-down-itis" - given the prolonged, and ultimately unsuccessful, attempt to stop on Vnukovo's runway.
Russian investigators have detailed the aircraft's behaviour but revealed only a scant overview of the pilots' behaviour as they tried to comprehend why an aircraft commanded to slow was instead powering towards a rapidly approaching ditch.
From a purely aerodynamic point of view, the aircraft, in the simplest terms, never stopped flying.
During take-off pilots are trained, arguably against intuition, to commit to rotating and climbing as the safer option once an aircraft accelerates past certain threshold airspeeds.
One crucial unanswered aspect of the Vnukovo accident is whether, during the long ground roll, the crew ever considered this possibility, or whether some psychological trigger - such as the activation of reverse-thrust - served to fixate their attention on completing the landing, to the exclusion of every possibility that didn't involve staying firmly on the ground.

(The following appeared as the lead Comment article in Flight International, 5 February 2013)

The US Air Force must invest in technologies if its fleet of aggressor aircraft is to accurately replicate the air forces of potential adversaries. History shows that air combat skills are highly perishable, and constant vigilance needed to maintain fighter pilots' skills.
During the Korean War, a veteran force of USAF pilots flying the North American F-86 Sabre achieved a lopsided 10-to-one kill ratio against the Soviet-built Mikoyan MiG-15. The Sabre pilots racked up that impressive kill ratio not because the Sabre outclassed the MiG-15 - in many ways, the MiG was the superior aircraft - but because the US pilots had superior training and experience compared to the rookie North Korean and Chinese aviators flying the Soviet machines.
However, over the skies of Vietnam two decades later, the USAF slipped to a dismal record, with a kill ratio only slightly better than two to one. Over Vietnam, much more sophisticated US fighters were being shot out of the sky by comparatively simple Soviet-built MiGs. This was partly attributable to a lack of realistic training against a representative threat, particularly for within-visual-range combat. The US Navy rectified the problem by introducing dissimilar air combat training. By the war's end, its kill ratio had climbed to 8.33 to one, while the USAF continued to wallow.
After Vietnam, the USAF instituted a number of initiatives to ensure its aircrews were ready to take on enemy aircraft. These included the Constant Peg programme, for which Russian-built MiGs were acquired to train US pilots using real Soviet tactics. The service also stood up conventional Aggressor squadrons using US-built aircraft to train friendly forces more broadly to face enemy aircraft using enemy tactics.
Those efforts paid dividends over the skies of Iraq, where the USAF achieved a record of 39 kills for no losses against relatively modern Soviet-built jets. This suggests that pilots need the opportunity to train against realistic threat presentations using real enemy tactics - or the Vietnam debacle could be repeated.
The Lockheed Martin F-16 airframe is able to provide a reasonable facsimile of threat aircraft such as the Russian-built Su-30 Flanker series, but the older Block 30 and 32 versions used as aggressors do not have the equipment to accurately simulate the current-generation enemy weapons. To change that, the USAF needs to fund upgrades, as well as to think about how to train pilots to face emerging threats such as Russian and Chinese stealth fighters.

Our coverage of the 787 crisis continues with our cover feature this week (Flight International 5 February) entitled Electrical storm. In it, Stephen Trimble examines the history behind Boeing's decision to opt for revolutionary lithium-ion batteries for the Dreamliner, and where the investigation goes from here. Meanwhile, David Kaminski-Morrow looks at why Airbus is sticking to its philosophy of making the A350 less electrically-dependent than its rival.

Our defence coverage includes stories on the UK's long term military procurement budget and on why pilots are unhappy with a decision to downgrade the Lockheed Martin F-35's performance specifications. We have a full report on the what Russian investigators believe caused a Tupolev Tu-204 to fatally overrun at a Moscow airport, and news on how former Cessna boss Jack Pelton is returning to business aviation with a new company which has launched a remanufactured version of the manufacturer's 421C.

Finally, Dan Thisdell has been to the European Space Agency to find out what commercial projects as well as plans for the exploration of the cosmos the organisation has for 2013 onwards.