Comment: October 2012 Archives

Next week's National Business Aviation Association convention in Orlando should give us a pretty good idea of whether the sector is showing any signs of recovery.

The portents have not been great. While the large cabin and airliner-derived segments have held up throughout the downturn - thanks to long lead times and a growing market of ultra-high-net-worths happy to pay to own or charter this sort of long-range, high-end transport, the rest of the business aviation market continues to sag.

Hawker Beechcraft announced last week that, following the breakdown of talks with a Chinese suitor, it was planning to dispose of - or shut down - its Hawker jet division. The famous brand has struggled for years, long before the onset of the recession, and time appears to be running out. It seems inconceivable that any of its rivals will step in to rescue it. The 23 October issue of Flight International has the full story.

Elsewhere, though there has been some uptick for Cessna and Bombardier has three Learjet models under development, that end of the sector remains tough. There are still many used jets in this part of the market looking for homes and dampening demand for new aircraft. And the core customer base for these jets - US corporates and small businesses - is still smarting from an onslaught from none other than President Barack Obama, who suggested in one of the presidential debates that owners should not be subject to favourable tax laws.

The NBAA's No Plane No Gain campaign - being rejuvinated at the convention this year - stresses that business aviation is crucial to the US and global economy. But in an age of austerity too many people still associate corporate aviation with corporate excess.

In this week's issue we look at several of the themes likely to be making the news in Orlando. Kate Sarsfield examines the air taxi market. Is there still life in a sector many suspected was a pre-downturn bubble of hype, blown up by the overstated ambitions of Vern Raburn's Eclipse Aerospace and would-be pioneer DayJet? You might be surprised at how the market has quietly developed over the past three years.

We also get our hands on some hardware, flight testing the new cockpit on Bombardier's revamped 70/75 and going under the skin of the Bell 429 helicopter with a stunning cutaway.

We have our annual snapshot of the business aircraft fleet with our census, and our cover story is the Bombardier Learjet 85, all-new big sister to the 70/75.

As the USA shifts its gaze toward the Pacific after a decade of conflict in the Middle East and south Asia, it is confronted with a rising China and the tyranny of vast distances.
But the country has not confronted a near-peer adversary since the 1991 demise of the Soviet Union. To control the Pacific, the US will have to rely increasingly on air and sea power, but it may have over-invested in short-range tactical aircraft that are unsuitable for the vast distances of the Pacific theatre.

Increasingly, as China fields large numbers of conventional ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and advanced fighters, land bases in the region are vulnerable to attack. Moreover, the threat of being drawn into a regional conflict between the two giants may force allies in the area to restrict US use of their bases for operations against China. Similarly, Chinese submarines, anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles, and potentially maritime strike aircraft may force US Navy aircraft carriers further out to sea, limiting their effectiveness.

Long-range airpower can counter these threats, as bombers with intercontinental range can launch strikes from the US mainland. And in sufficient numbers, a bomber force could deliver sustained strike capability deep inside enemy airspace.

But the US long-range strategic bomber fleet has shrunk drastically since the end of the Cold War. What remains of the once-mighty Strategic Air Command is but a shadow of its old strength. Only 85 Boeing B-52 bombers remain in service, but the aircraft is more than 50 years old and has no ability to penetrate hostile airspace, relying instead on stand-off weapons. The newer Rockwell B-1B Lancer is somewhat more survivable, but the fleet of 60 jets is, at best, suitable to a medium threat environment. Only the tiny fleet of 20 Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit stealth bombers has a modicum of penetration capability, but defensive advances will over time erode its ability to fight inside heavily defended airspace.

Thus development of the US Air Force's new long-range penetrating stealth bomber programme should be a budget priority - as should buying the aircraft in robust numbers. Right now, though, the USAF plans to buy only 80 to 100 of the new Long Range Strike-Bomber, but that number may not be sufficient to meet the Pacific threat. If budgets cannot stretch to support that build-up while maintaining the tactical fighter fleet, it is the fighters that should be cut back.

(This first appeared as the main leading article in the 16 October 2012 issue of Flight International).

This week's issue of Flight International focuses in its feature section on next-generation bombers. Dave Majumdar looks at the US Air Force's efforts to develop a new stealth long-range bomber amid worries that the programme may be under threat from defence budget cuts. Vladimir Karnozov, meanwhile, reports from Moscow on Russia's progress on its own long-range strike aircraft, the PAK-DA.

In the news section, further criticism of Gulfstream's G650 flight-test programme from US safety inspectors and what SpaceX plans now after its first-ever flight by a private contractor to the International Space Station. Plus: the fallout from the failed EADS/BAE Systems merger move, and what Lufthansa is doing to eliminate incidents involving fumes on the flightdeck.

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Our cover story this week (Flight International 9 October) asks what lessons aerospace can learn from the achievements of Solar Impulse, the Swiss-based project which aims to send a manned solar-powered aircraft around the world. Dan Thisdell has been to visit the company's founders to talk to them about the real reasons behind their efforts.

Ahead of the Japanese air show we ask whether the country has its air defence and aerospace industrial policies right when it comes to countering threats from China. Is it time for Tokyo to abandon its long-held determination to produce its own military aircraft programmes? Greg Waldron reports.

And there is also an update on Japan's first home-built civil aircraft in a long time, the Mitsubishi Regional Jet. Despite an order from Skywest, the MRJ still faces a herculean struggle for market acceptance.

In news: Qatar Airways' chief executive Akbar Al Baker accuses Boeing of failing the airline over delays to its Boeing 787s; the business aviation community reacts to comments by President Barack Obama about taxing corporate aircraft; and the ailing pilots who battled to land an A319.

 

Plus: if you are not a subscriber to Flight International, we have some great offers on the go, including for our new tablet format. Go to http://tinyurl.com/d4t4f4x

 

 

A project whose explicit goal is to fly around the world with no fuel would seem to be all about aviation, especially when the men behind the plan are two of the world's more formidable aviators. But Solar Impulse founders André Borschberg and Bertrand Piccard insist the main goal of this scheme is not to fly around the world, but to show the world what wonders of energy efficiency can be achieved if only we all would choose to fully exploit available technology. The aircraft, they say, is merely the most exciting vehicle for conveying that message.
For all of our sakes, let us hope they succeed.
But in the meantime, let us all delight in the latest example of how aviation's urgent need for light, efficient, reliable materials and structures has shaped modern life. To cite just two examples: first, nearly a century before the Wright Brothers, English inventor George Cayley paved the way for bicycles, motorcycles and cars by conceiving the tension spoke wheel while experimenting with gliders; second, a generation ago and not so far from Solar Impulse, Paul MacCready pioneered the use of carbonfibre to create his milestone of efficient flight, Gossamer Albatross.
So, when you next swing your leg over a mountain bike, tee off or swivel your titanium replacement hip, spare a thought for the aviators who never stop trying to make something a little bit better.

(This article first appeared as a Comment piece in Flight International 9 October 2012)

It is a punchline perhaps as relevant today as 20 years ago: China's general aviation market is the next big opportunity, and always will be.
There is no doubting the potential of long-repressed Chinese demand for the kind of casual flying taken for granted in most parts of Europe and North America.
Statistics from the Chinese GA sector paint a surreal portrait of austerity in a booming economy.
Compared with the world's largest market in the USA, China's operations and industry for GA seems hopelessly behind. Last year, hours flown by GA aircraft in China totalled 502,700; for the USA, the figure was 24.4 million. The Wall Street Journal has reported that the GA industry of North Dakota exceeds the combined output of the same sector in China. A 2008 study by Booz & Co reported 653 GA aircraft in China, compared with about 224,000 in the USA.
These almost comical statistical differences are fully explained by yawning disparities in infrastructure and government policy. There are 19,191 GA airports in the USA, according to the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Press reports in China identify 244 civilian airports in that country. The Chinese air force controls all airspace below 1,000m (3,300ft), requiring pilots to request clearance for take-offs at least seven days in advance, although turn-around often takes weeks.
All this is changing, if you believe the latest round of messaging by the Chinese government. In July, China's State Council published a blueprint for raising the number of GA hours flown to two million by 2020, a 19% annual increase. Meanwhile, China will add 82 new airports and expand 101 existing airports by 2017, the Civil Aviation Administration of China announced a week after the State Council's blueprint appeared. The CAAC also committed to relaxing the military ban on private flights in Chinese airspace.
These pledges of reforms have been noticed. Chinese cities are vying with each other to become new hubs for training private pilots. Lacking an indigenous industry, the cities are gobbling up distressed GA manufacturers in the USA, the latest targets being Liberty Aerospace and Vertical Aviation Technologies.
But promised reforms do not appear adequate to the grand scale of the Chinese government's ambitions. For example, China would need hundreds of new airports to support forecasted growth in GA flight hours, along with the predicted leap in commercial operations.
The Chinese GA market can only grow - but not nearly at the pace promoted by its government.

Look out for a very unusual cover on this week's Flight International (2 October) to go with our cover story on finding a suitable engine for the Boeing 777X. Our commercial engines special looks at the tussle between the big three propulsion players to supply a product that will deliver the 10%-plus fuel burn improvement being demanded by the airframer for the next version of its top-selling twinjet. The package also has an update on the PW1100G geared turbofan as the engine is readied for testing.

In news this week: why China could be single-handedly reviving the USA's ailing general aviation industry, and how a proposed 160-seat Bombardier CSeries is getting low-cost airlines very interested. Plus: is Embraer in trouble as its regional jet backlog shrinks? And the latest ins and outs of the BAE/EADS merger plan.