Comment: December 2012 Archives

The following entry was first published as Flight International's main leader in 18 December 2012.

NASA raised our Curiosity on Mars. Airbus planted its flag in Alabama. A Superjet was lost in Indonesia. Richard Branson shook hands with Richard Anderson. Two Chinese-built capsules docked together - in space. The world bid farewell to Moon walker Neil Armstrong.
That was the year 2012 in the aerospace industry.
For some, 12 months proved not nearly long enough. US politicians managed to pull off an election, but at the time of writing had failed to pass a budget for the fiscal year that began nearly three months ago. Bombardier set a countdown for the first flight of the CSeries, but the clock ran out. Sales of light business jets would surely recover by the fourth quarter; they didn't.
On the other hand, it was a good year for commercial airliners in production. After so many years of embarrassing delays moving the A380, A400M and 787 out of the development phase, Airbus and Boeing polished the stain off their reputations by skillfully executing production rate increases while continuing to pad historically large order backlogs.
But it was a bad year for some commercial airliners still on the drawing boards. Boeing knocked the 777X off the fast-track to authority to offer, while Airbus stumbled over building the wing for the first A350 XWB.
Certain types of deals were harder to make than ever. The US military neglected to add a new aircraft type to its inventory in 2012, a rare feat. Brazil, India, South Korea and the United Arab Emirates said they would, but were unable to buy new fighters. Germany was asked to approve a merger between EADS and BAE Systems, but blew it up instead.
Meanwhile, others were just trying to keep it together - like the international partnership crumbling around the Lockheed Martin F-35. Hawker Beechcraft didn't quite succeed, winding down its jet division
in bankruptcy.
On balance, however, the industry that enters 2013 is the same as the industry that passed into 2012, with many of the biggest questions left unanswered. What is Boeing's 777 strategy? Which new narrowbody engine do airlines prefer? Can the F-35 survive a domestic spending crisis and a drop in international confidence? How will European industry consolidate?
Alas, the next 12 months offer little hope of clarity, but mark the diary: 2014 already looks set to be a year of reckoning in the aerospace industry, full of surprises bad and good.

(The following entry first appeared as the second Comment in Flight International 4 December 2012)

British Airways' announcement that - following consultations with the UK Civil Aviation Authority - it is to allow customers to continue using in-flight entertainment systems and headsets during approach and landing is a welcome enhancement in terms of passenger experience. But an unfortunate, if unintended, consequence will be the exacerbation of confusion among passengers over what they are and are not allowed to do depending on which airline they happen to be flying with that day.
Is it safe, for example, for passengers to use their mobile phones onboard a taxiing airliner while its engines are running? The lack of industry consensus on this and other "cabin safety" issues is undermining the ability of crew to plausibly persuade passengers to comply with whatever rules their particular employer adopts. BA does not allow use of mobile phones during taxiing because they "may interfere with the aircraft's systems". But travellers arriving at BA's London Heathrow base on board an aircraft operated by its alliance partner Cathay Pacific are informed immediately after landing that it is perfectly fine to switch on phones and use them during the taxi to the gate. So either BA is needlessly prohibiting phone use, or Cathay Pacific and its Hong Kong regulator are wrong to allow it.
Regardless, airlines and regulators need to agree coherent rules and apply them consistently if cabin crew are to be reasonably expected to enforce them.

(The following entry first appeared as the main leading article in Flight International, 4 December 2012)

So, China has joined the aircraft carrier club. Images and video of Shenyang J-15 fighters performing arrested landings and ramp-assisted take-offs from China's first carrier, the Liaoning, have been broadcast, tweeted, and shared globally. As with China's first manned space mission in 2003, the Liaoning flights are being viewed as another step in China's rise.
Chinese pundits gushed at the birth of China's blue-sea navy. A new dance move called "Carrier Style" swept the country. Proud citizens squatted down, stuck their left arms behind their backs, and thrust their right arms out - imitating the gesture two Chinese "yellow shirts" used to launch a J-15.
"Although the gesture has often been seen in movies, I couldn't restrain my excitement the first time I saw it used to instruct a fighter jet to land and take off from China's first aircraft carrier," said one man interviewed by China Daily.
From a technical perspective, carrier flight operations involving jets are not groundbreaking - the USA and the UK perfected this art half a century ago. What is more striking about China's first carrier flights is the openness that accompanied them. A television crew was given a surprising degree of access, with excellent footage of deck activities, landings and take-offs.
China's defence ministry published photos detailing shipboard life, including smiling crew members eating in a cosy galley while chefs baked bread. The images gave a unique glimpse into the human side of China's military, a reminder that military service is much the same the world over.
This openness contrasts sharply with other high-profile airpower-related firsts in recent years. Beijing has yet to officially acknowledge the Chengdu J-20 programme. Prototypes of this mysterious aircraft have been flying since early 2011, but Beijing has said nothing about the aircraft's intended role and capabilities.
Similarly, little is known about the Shenyang J-31, which conducted its maiden flight on 31 October this year - although this fighter may be aimed at the export market. While China has a pressing need to upgrade a largely obsolescent air force, the silence surrounding the J-20 and J-31 - not to mention other advanced military programmes - is unnerving to neighbours.
There is no more potent symbol of power and prestige than the aircraft carrier. To ensure its programme does not cause deep concern in the Asia-Pacific region, Beijing needs to be open about the capabilities.

The latest Flight International (4 December) looks ahead to next week's Middle East Business Aviation show in Dubai with a feature package highlighting some of the themes and companies likely to be making the headlines.

There's an overview of the sector's fortunes over the past year and a look at the region's growing number of airports targeting business aviation, as well as profiles of Falcon Aviation and DC Aviation. We also preview our business aircraft simulator training guide, due to be launched at MEBA.

Elsewhere in the magazine, you will find our take on two years of the A320neo. How successful has the programme been for Airbus and will its entry-into-service head start on Boeing give it a critical advantage over its rival?

Plus: we examine the future of Spirit AeroSystems and Europe's space launcher programme.

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