Forgeard's chances for survival? Not much

Just back from talking to some senior industry movers and shakers in Paris, and it seems everybody rates EADS co-CEO Noel Forgeard's chances of survival as somewhat below a fat turkey's on Christmas Eve. In a country where big business and politics go hand in hand, the EADS affair started as a very \"industry\" story concerning some wiring problems on an aircraft, quickly developed into a business and financial issue and within 48 hours erupted into a political dirt-storm that looks like bringing down a board of directors if not a prime minister. The senior guns in French industry seem in part amused, in part horrified by the goings-on. But the person who must be fuming the most is Forgeard's externally ice-cool co-CEO, German Tom Enders. He could be one of the few senior EADS executives to emerge from this scandal with his reputation and dignity intact, and is my odds-on bet for becoming a post-Forgeard single CEO, with perhaps Frenchman Fabrice Bregier as his number two. The affair has helped highlight the nonsense of EADS's trans-Rhine dual-CEO set-up (everyone else manages fine with one). It can only be a matter of time before EADS shareholders (with or without the French government) decide to appoint the best person for the job.