When Mauricio Botelho announced that he would step down from the helm of Embraer I speculated here that Fred Curado (or Frederico Fleury Curado, as people have suddenly taken to calling him) would be the new CEO (hardly rocket science) - and I'm glad to see that he's been chosen.
Curado is currently executive vice president airline market and he starts in the post in April next year.
My doubt was that Embraer might conclude that they needed someone with stronger military credentials in order to grow the business.
Curado has impeccable credentials in Embraer's core regional airliner business and I've no doubt that Botelho, a great strategist, has ensured that he has had the greatest possible exposure to the rest of the company. But it's still vital for Embraer that it can make a more robust breakthrough into the military market than it has so far managed.
The company is enjoying great times right now but its strongest success is coming right in a sector of the airliner market - 70-110 seats - that almost defies analysis regarding its future. In this long-cycle business, Embraer has got to where it is by brilliantly understanding the market, its vulnerability as ever in aviation is that somebody else will better understand the next cycle. And there is the additional challenge this time that Boeing and Airbus are closely examining the smaller airliner market as they formulate their own single-aisle strategies.
In the years ahead Embraer may find life more competitive than ever - its success in understanding what's possible for it in the military market, and especially the USA, coudl be crucial to where it stands in a decade's time.
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