Unsurprisingly Randy Baseler at Boeing is using his blog to react rapidly to Airbus' A350 commitment. Much of what he says is as you'd imagine, but he compares the 787/A350 situation with the A340/777 in a way that I'm not so sure holds up.
Randy is keen to knock down the idea that there are advantages to being second in the market. His target today is the notion that the latecomer can make technical changes after watching the experience of the leader, as shown by the way the 777, two years after the A340, overtook it in the market.
He says that's not right because the key factor was a "technology breakthrough" in propulsion that let Boeing commit exclusively to a twin two years later. Airbus, he says, is five years behind with no comparable breakthrough in sight. But I wonder about that (no argument about the timescales obviously).
There wasn't really a technology breakthrough involved - more a case of years of development, mountains of data, and evolving regulatory thinking coming to a head at the right time. And the exact timing was heavily driven by Boeing's powerful - and knowledge-backed - lobbying. I think being second hugely helped Boeing make the twin commitment - by then they had even more data, and more current data, on twins; they could talk to the airlines at a crucial time when they were also trying to understand the risks; and they could drive the regulatory agenda.
Does that have parallels this time. Well, maybe. Airbus will be able to see just how tough the composites manufacturing task is for Boeing, and will even get some experience of how the material stands up in service. They'll find out whether the new cabin advances - lower cabin-altitude, increased humidity, mood-lighting and so on - actually matter much and if they affect costs. And they'll benefit from the shakedown of all the new technologies and common components that the 787 will pioneer.
Believe me I'm not suggesting that Airbus is in a happy position. But I think Randy knows that there really are advantages to being second.
I don't think Randy doubts the advatages of being second, just the advantages in Airbus' particular situation. For sure, the A350 won't be as radical an improvement over its direct competition that the 777 & 787 are. Also, a five-year head start is nothing to scoff at. In five years from now, Boeing may be in a position to start marketing the next 787 rev. If all goes according to plan, they'll certainly be in the right financial place to do so. Not to mention the that Boeing will also probably be in a position to start marketing a 737 replacement. Basically, unless Boeing screws up, (and this seems to be universal opinion) it will have Airbus on the defensive for the foreseeable future.
jake
By the time the Airbus 350 flies (if it in fact ever does), Boeing will have produced over 500 787s and have 300-500 more on order. 787 facilities and infrastructure will be in place worldwide. The plane will be a proven performer. Boeing will have a huge pricing/cost advantage as its R&D costs and tooling will have been paid for. Same also applies to the engine and other suppliers. Boeing will have the economies of scale to absorb and pay for any technological upgrade that comes along. The A350 in marketing lingo is an 'also-ran'. With all of the reintroductions the Dreamliner name is more appropriate to the A350.
Michael Opara
You are wrong on two major aspects of the situation (though you are in good company as AV Week refers to the A350 as me to).
The leaps are
1. Composites (all composite where the future is not the A350 hybrid compositre on alumunum frame)
2. Move to all electric (not quite, but close)
3. Engines
Airbus misses to some degree in all three with the A350. Its a kludge machine with the hybrid structure, bleed air not electrics, and that removes some of the engine advantage.
Its also morphed into more of a 777 competitor, not a 787 competitor.
They will get the same 30% market as they got with the A330 Improved (i.e. the first A350).
It also leaves the under 275 seat market all to Boeing.
As the A320 will be all composite, the A350 does nothing to advance that cause with experience, they are too different.
Airbus will not benefit from Boeings experience becasue they are not even matching it, let alone exceeding it.
By the time they get any number in production, Boeing will have the 787-10 well into production.
Airbus is rapidly moving to a 30% market share.
Greg Schmitz