So, who would you trust on the future of the aircraft industry - Steven Udvar-Hazy or me?
OK, point taken, but nevertheless...I'm really not sure what Mr Hazy is suggesting when he talks of the Chinese threat to Boeing and Airbus. Taken literally I suppose he's right when he says Boeing and Airbus won't dominate the market "for ever and ever" - but I'd suggest they will for as long as most of us need to worry about.
Let's think about this. If you were Chinese, which market sector would you try to break into? 400+ seats against the A380 and 747 - uh-uh, no demand. Mid-market against the two most advanced designs on the planet - I don't think so. How about the other end - regional jets? Against Brazil, Canada and Russia too - pretty brave.
But how about entering the race for the future narrowbody from a standing start against Airbus and Boeing? Sounds more plausible - a colossal market, harder for the incumbents to differentiate themselves, less ambitious engineering-wise. Well yes, it seems that is where the Chinese are aiming.
Good luck to them, boy they'll need it. The current A320/737 families will be rolling off the lines for a good few years yet, and they'll have lives of anything out to 40 years I suppose. Quite a few will actually be built in China.
By then Airbus and Boeing will be building the successor aircraft and ramping up to unprecedented production rates with risk-sharing partners all over the world. They will be more competitively priced than ever and, above all, more efficient and environmentally acceptable. I simply don't see China competing.
Even if there is some sort of Chinese airframe, it'll have Western engines and a lot of Western systems. The UK and US are miles ahead of the rest of the world in propulsion technology and I think they'll stay that way. Furthermore, they won't be exporting much of that know-how because of the military implications.
Anything that could sink my argument? Possibly - a Sino-Russian aerospace alliance might do it. That going to happen? I really don't think so in the timeframe that would be needed to provide a new narrowbody.
And then there's the question of funding the project without falling foul of WTO rules. Just who is going to fund such a fantastically risky project with such a lengthy payback period if it's not the Chinese Government?
Good point on the WTO angle; hadn't thought of that! Of course, they may just decide to ignore the rules and concentrate on their domestic market. Don't forget the ARJ21 is coming soon, which can't be good news for Bombardier, Embraer, and Sukhoi. I'm not sure if it's a good idea to build the A320 plant, given their announced intentions....