Reports from the Financial Times in Germany suggest Berlin is finally prepared to take action on the longstanding question of ownership of EADS, by buying out at least most of the 22.46% of the company owned or controlled by Daimler. The story has been denied by the German government, but still reveals much about the ongoing discomfort over the agreement between France and Germany to hold exactly-balancing national stakes in the aerospace group.
Daimler, whose aerospace division formed the core of the German pillar of EADS when the Airbus and Eurocopter parent was formed a decade ago out of French, German, Spanish and UK national aerospace companies, has remained Berlin's proxy holder of the German share of the company. But the car maker wants out. And, at least according to FT sources inside the German government, Berlin has reached the conclusion that neither financial nor industry buyers are to be found.
Political opposition to a government buyout is apparently weakening, so a €2.5 billion deal to buy 15% of EADS over the next year or so may be on the cards.
Such nationalisation would still leave a short 7.5% with Daimler, whose finance chief Bodo Uebber - who doubles as EADS chairman - has said intends to retain "industrial leadership" of Germany's interest in the aerospace giant.
What might be shifting political opposition to nationalising the stake is the price. EADS is now trading right in the middle of its 52-week price range, which bottomed out at €16.62 last November and peaked at more than €25 in June, before stock markets tanked this summer.
Thus, Berlin can buy in at what might well be sold to uncertain members of the coalition government as a reasonable price, which values the company at €16.7 billion - a shade below its market capitalisation at the moment, but neither at the top nor bottom of the market.
Government action now might also help steady market nerves, as EADS's main business, Airbus, is entering an uncertain period. The coming couple years are its opportunity to prove that it can bring to market a major new product - the A350XWB twin-aisle jetliner - without stumbling through the sort of costly delays and engineering hiccups that have marred arch-rival Boeing's reputation while it struggled with the 787.
Also, it's worth remembering that Daimler's anxiety about holding the EADS stake resulted in a deal that saw a consortium of German banks buy a third of the stake - 7.46% of the company - and hold it temporarily on the understanding that Daimler would ultimately buy it back. If instead the government steps in soon and buys those shares, it avoids a battle with Daimler in the next year or so over the matter.
And, such a move would bolster those German banks' balance sheets by €1.25 billion. In the grand scheme of responding to the eurozone crisis that is not a pivotal sum. But Berlin would presumably welcome the opportunity to pump it into its fragile banking sector without having to fight the political battle that is bank recapitalisation - a battle so much bigger than any disagreement over whether the state should own part of EADS.
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