One largely unreported story from Dubai is beginning to gain a bit of clarity:
Green aircraft to replace 737
By Ivan Gale, Staff Reporter
Gulfnews.comIn the next 18 months, Boeing expects to arrive at a design template for the 737 replacement, with "notional entry into service" around the middle of the next decade.
"The technology to create an airplane that could economically obsolete the 737 and Airbus 320 class of airplanes looks to us to be around 2015, give or take," Boeing Commercial Airplanes chief executive Scott Carson told Gulf News.
So how much business is at stake over the next twenty years in the single aisle market? Both Airbus and Boeing agree that there is no less than $1 trillion available between now and 2026. If you average delivery forecast from both manufacturers you have more than 16,000 new single aisle aircraft rolling off the assembly lines in the next two decades.
However, for the first time in a long time, this $1 trillion single aisle market likely won't be split between between just the two manufacturers. The market will be a crowded one with a Canadian offering in the Bombardier C-Series, which has made no secret of its desire to get in on the replacement market. With plans firming up for a 2013 EIS, the Bombardier aircraft could potentially be a force in the market if the launch comes together after its initially hesitant start. Embraer has also indicated its interest in throwing its own hat in the ring, however, structurally the launch of a new product range wouldn't be happening until the middle of the next decade well after both American and European plans have gained clarity.
Look for Airbus and Boeing try to preserve their duopoly on this market by partnering with other manufacturers of create a dedicated product.
Ultimately, if a 2015 EIS firms up for 737RS, then a flight test program would coincide with flight testing of the A350-1000 in 2014. This timeline puts Airbus in a corner by trying to gain certification on two entirely new products within eighteen to twenty four months of one another. Airbus won't be able to benefit from the eight years of composite experience Boeing is set to gain between 787 and 737RS production. If the development of the A350 is any guide, the A320 replacement absolutely cannot be a warmed over version with new engines. This is one market that Airbus does not have the luxury to wait on with a solid offering.
If nothing else, 2008 and 2009 will provide answers to a lot of questions about the future of the single aisle market. This battle has barley just begun.
Mmm, mmm, "battle [of the] barley". Are hops involved? :-)
One thing that no one has mentioned before.
Where are all these Aircraft that will be replaced going to wind up??
With Boeing and Airbus producing NEW Aircraft
(both Wide Body and Single-isle) as fast as they can, I count hundreds to thousands over the next ten years will be taken out of service as the Airlines and Lease companies aquire NEW ones.
Sounds like a major chop factory will have to
be built somewhere to make room.!!!
Any idea's or thoughts..??
Well guys most of the other aircraft gentely used will be refurbished for the third world sector like africa and asia where they dont give a dam. Im glad that Embraer is comming with their new medium size jets as well sukoi. These guys will give boeing and airbus a good run for their money as well the japanese and chinnese are all looking to build a seprior product that is cheap to make and is fuel efiecient like a car. Competion is needed to exelirate an industry that until recently was slow and boring.