Steven Udvar-Hazy, President and CEO of the International Lease Finance Corporation spoke to FlightBlogger this morning in a wide-ranging interview, and revealed that Boeing is exploring development on a new mid-range 787 derivative.
Mr. Hazy revealed to FlightBlogger that Boeing is exploring “very exciting” derivations of its hot-selling Dreamliner to, “…address more of the medium-haul and short-haul end of the market.”
Mr. Hazy elaborated:
It would be, “another version of the 787 that is lighter, that addresses more the performance capabilities at a different, at more the medium haul end of the market. That might be a more practical product line that will have a wider application with more customers than the -3 and we’re encouraging Boeing to come up with a 787 derivative to address that middle market which has wide global appeal to airlines in North America, European airlines, Middle East, China and South America and intra-Asia and US trans-con market and so forth. The dash three doesn’t quite do it. It seems too heavy.”In addition, Mr. Hazy also felt that development of the 787-10 has “somewhat stalled” for a number of reasons.
“I think the Boeing engineering and product team is totally focused on the 787-8 and -9 and also getting the 747-8 intercontinental airplane into production and get it certified both the passenger and freighter. With the weight creep on the 787-9 there’s some real issues that have arisen, for example the landing gear, we have to have to be at a different landing gear configuration on the -10. The wing will have to be beefed up so your creating more weight, which means more thrust which then gets the situation into a regime with Rolls Royce and GE where the original GENx design and the Trent design for the 787 was not intended to be at those thrust levels as to what’s required at the -10. I think Boeing is carefully looking at the -10, but I think it’s slipped in terms of its priority.”
Listen to the complete interview here.
Much more with Steven Udvar-Hazy below the fold
The discussion turned toward the 737/A320 replacement cycle coming in the next decade.
Mr. Hazy revealed his preference for the configuration of a new narrow-body product. In fact, his ideal configuration for a replacement family wouldn’t be a narrow-body at all. Mr. Hazy has been advocating to Airbus and Boeing for a seven-abreast twin aisle short range aircraft with a cross section slightly smaller than that of a 767.
“The next family of small aircraft may have to be larger gauge aircraft than the ones they are replacing and as the world traffic grows and as we have infrastructure constraints we’re going to have to move to larger average size aircraft. So, one way of addressing that would be a small twin aisle offering: 797 or A360 as we call it at ILFC.”Mr. Hazy elaborated further:
“Again, a lot depends on the technologies that Boeing will become more familiar with as the 787 goes through its certification process and the engine technologies and then would miniaturize some of the these technologies efficiently enough to give to give us that double-digit efficiency improvement...If we had to make a long term twenty five, thirty year product decision, I am leaning more towards a small twin aisle.”The viability of a narrow-body replacement product is contingent, Mr. Hazy added, on a “magic number” for performance improvements over current generation aircraft.
“Fifteen percent. That’s not only in fuel efficiency, it’s in economics. Maintenance costs will have to come down, and when you’re dealing in a high cycle environment when aircraft might make 10 or 12 takeoffs and landings a day, maintenance costs will become a much more important driver than a long haul environment where an airplane may be making a 12 hour flight. So, maintenance costs are important and the environmental aspects in the short haul environment are much more important and the reliability, so, engine technology is obviously the key driver, and I see both Airbus and Boeing being cautious on a replacement aircraft. I think both programs have moved a little to the right. Also, we have to keep in mind that Boeing and Airbus are preoccupied with 787 development and the A350 development. That’s consuming a lot of their internal talent and resources financially. I think the narrow body replacement will become more focused as the 787 is certified and the A350 is further a long in terms of its cycle.”Mr. Hazy felt that as schedules for narrow-body replacement are pushed back, Bombardier may have an opportunity to capitalize on the new timelines.
“That’s a big decision to make on the CSeries. I think that the delay in the 737 and A320 replacement families creates a window of opportunity for Bombardier to launch the CSeries and they now have an engine platform with the GTF that appears to show double digit [specific fuel capacity] improvement and efficiency improvement. At the same time we might be facing a slowdown in the global economies and it’s difficult to estimate the competitive response will be from Airbus and Boeing.”Mr. Hazy felt that Airbus and Boeing would respond to protect its turf.
“If the CSeries does come out, it’s basically at the lower end of the 737/A320 families, and I don’t think Boeing and Airbus will be bystanders. So I think the Canadians have an interesting challenge. I think there’s a window of opportunity, but I think Boeing and Airbus will respond aggressively in terms of not losing market share. It will be very interesting to watch how that evolves.”
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