I'll be covering the day's developments on the 787 program live from this thread. Like I did last time, this page will feature liveblogged coverage of the conference call on the morning of April 9 (11 AM ET, 8 AM PT, 1500 GMT) so please feel free to leave your thoughts on the latest 787 news. I'll be live blogging the call, but it won't be a running synopsis.
For a point of reference, below is an image depicting the rough locations of the four airframes currently being assembled in Everett. The image is accurate as of April 9, 2008.
Original Image Courtesy of Boeing
Created by FlightBlogger to reflect current status
See previous assembly status from December 10, 2007
UPDATE 10:28 AM 4/10: Industry reaction: Spirit Aerosystems, ANA, JAL, QANTAS/Jetstar, Air New Zealand, Northwest, TUI
UPDATE 3:11 PM: Synopsis of the call is now found below the fold. Special thanks to NYC777 for doing an amazing job putting that together. Also, Boeing's stock us up over 4% and was above 5% at points during the trading day.
UPDATE 12:52 PM: Just wrapped up a podcast on the delay.
UPDATE 12:00 PM: Call concluded.
UPDATE 11:41 AM: Shanahan says time between power on and first flight is 4 months. This should put first flight sometime in October. Though first flight could happen anywhere between September 1-December 31.
UPDATE 11:37 AM: Shanahan: All flight test aircraft will be flying by 1Q09. (This is going to be a rapid fire start up for the flight test program)
UPDATE 11:33 AM: Center wing box issue: "finite element modeling error" - 200 clips and brackets and 500 fasteners to strengthen the wingbox.
UPDATE 11:21 AM: Incomplete work reduced by 75% between Airplane 3 and Airplane 1. 787 wing will be, "taken to the point of destruction" by the end of the quarter on fatigue test frame. Production rate 10 per month by 2012 (16 per month was discussed at one point) ZY997 moves out at the end of April and Airplane 3 final assembly begins around the same time.
UPDATE 11:13 AM: Shanahan: Power on moved from April to June. Airplane 3 will have full interior for testing. Systems at, "near full functionality in labs." Systems being installed in Airplane 1. Two months lost due to wiring and wing box fixes.
UPDATE 11:06 AM: Call now underway. Carson: "More conservative approach to milestones the way to go." "Our actions, not our words that will get this airplane in the air."
UPDATE 9:19 AM: Complete Boeing release.
Key Points:
- Before June 30: 787 static and fatigue airframes will move to their testing; Dreamliner 3 and 4 will enter final assembly; hardware airworthiness qualifications will be complete; and power on will be achieved.
- First Flight 4Q08
- Entry into service 3Q09
- 25 deliveries planned in 2009
- 787-9 delayed until early 2012, previously scheduled for end of 2010. 787-3 will be second variant, no timeline specified.
UPDATE 9:05 AM: BREAKING - Boeing has announced 787 first flight will take place in the 4th quarter of 2008 and first delivery in the 3rd quarter of 2009.
UPDATE 3:10 AM: The Times of London is reporting that, "Boeing is expected to announce today that its 787 Dreamliner has been delayed by 18 months." Based on this estimate, entry in to service appears slated for around November 2009.
The Times also anticipates that, "Boeing is also thought to be ready to postpone or even scrap one of the three variants of the aircraft to enable its engineers to focus on solving existing problems. The likely victim will the 787-3, a high passenger density model designed for the Japanese market."
UPDATE 2:07 AM: Scott Hamilton's pre-analysis of the update call is a must read.
Update Call Synopsis - Courtesy of NYC777
* First flight moved to 4th Quarter 2008
* First Delivery moved to 3rd Quarter 2009
* First flight will take place approximately 4 months after power on
* Planned deliveries in 2009 will be about 25 airplanes
* Continued challenges on LN 1
* Included added margin to reduce the schedule risk due to discoveries made during flight testing
* Climb to full rate production will be more conservative than planned
* 787-9 first delivery will be in early 2012
* 787-3 will be 2nd derivative…no schedule provided
* Have made significant strides in finishing airplane 1 but not fast enough
* Supply base is healthier and reduced traveled work
* Fundamental technologies are sound
* Airplane #3 will have a full interior installed in the airplane this summer
* Powered on date moved to June 2008
* Not enough progress on traveled work on LN 1
* Needed to make engineering changes and reinforce the center wing box
* Both of these issues led to a two month delay in power on.
* Great progress in working through the build of airplane 1
* Well into systems installation on airplane 1
* Schedule also impacted by rework (wing box)
* Rework fell into the critical path for wiring and systems installation
* Confident in the amount of work to be done and the schedule leading up to power on of LN 1.
* Systems Installation - Wings are almost ready. Clear progress in the forward body. Installing systems in the aft body empennage and making their way to installing the mid body systems.
* Will check out and test every system in the airplane prior to first flight and after power on.
* The conservative testing approach will extend the testing period by 2 months.
* New schedule does not infer that the anticipate a major glitch but is planning in case they crop up.
* If they don’t need the additional time, they won’t use it...i.e. move the schedule up if there are no issues.
* Integration labs allows to simultaneously test over 90% of the systems functionality.
* 95% of systems functionality has been delivered except for brake controls, inflight entertainment, some elements of the power system, and the maintenance functionality of the flight control system.
* 98% of systems code has been written, tested, and delivered to Boeing.
* 100% Complete with the integration testing needed for power on
* 96% complete for testing needed for first flight
* Balance of testing and any needed corrective action needed will support first flight
* Majority 787 systems will be service ready at power on, other systems will ready by first flight.
* Risk mitigation and issues anticipation have been take into account
* Planning a gradual production ramp up beyond 2009
* Assuming a production rate of 10/month in 2012
* Will study how to improve on the 10/month during this year
* Improve completeness of parts and structures coming from suppliers
* 50% reduction in the amount of incomplete work on airplane 2 from airplane 1.
* Comparison of airplane 3 with airplane 1 shows a 75% reduction in the amount of incomplete work.
* Continue to make good progress in structural testing in Japan, Italy, Russia and the US
* Taken a fuselage section and the horizontal stab to ultimate load and beyond
* Composite test barrel testing went beyond the ultimate test load and had to stop for fear of destroying the fixture before the barrel
* Taken the partial wing span to limit loads, tested the wing to 5 of the 10 ultimate load conditions, remaining 5 test will be completed by the end of the 2nd quarter, 2008
* Have found some issues that are characterized and normal and minor, moved quickly to implement required changes.
* 15% of overall component testing yet to be done.
* Testing on full scale static and fatigue frames to start in the next couple of months.
* Will use the test results to incorporate weight reduction improvements to the actual airplanes.
* Certification activity continues, only have a handful of open issues
* GE has certified its engine on March 31st
* Week over week improvement in final assembly ops.
* Static airplane will move out of the factory at the end of April to make room for the third flying airplane. Parts for airplane 3 will arrive in Everett by the end of April
* Fatigue airplane will move to its test stand in June shortly followed by parts for airplane #4 to enter final assembly in June
* By June 30th will have static and fatigue frames out at their test sites, final assembly begun on airplanes 3 and 4 in Everett, completing systems hardware airworthiness qualifications, finishing safety of flight testing for system hardware and software integration, and receiving flight test systems hardware.
* R & D will likely increase from these changes but will not change 2008 earnings guidance
* 2009 earnings guidance will see impact of these changes
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