I'll be covering the day's developments on the 787 program live from this thread. Like I did last time, this page will feature liveblogged coverage of the conference call on the morning of April 9 (11 AM ET, 8 AM PT, 1500 GMT) so please feel free to leave your thoughts on the latest 787 news. I'll be live blogging the call, but it won't be a running synopsis.
For a point of reference, below is an image depicting the rough locations of the four airframes currently being assembled in Everett. The image is accurate as of April 9, 2008.
Original Image Courtesy of Boeing
Created by FlightBlogger to reflect current status
See previous assembly status from December 10, 2007
UPDATE 10:28 AM 4/10: Industry reaction: Spirit Aerosystems, ANA, JAL, QANTAS/Jetstar, Air New Zealand, Northwest, TUI
UPDATE 3:11 PM: Synopsis of the call is now found below the fold. Special thanks to NYC777 for doing an amazing job putting that together. Also, Boeing's stock us up over 4% and was above 5% at points during the trading day.
UPDATE 12:52 PM: Just wrapped up a podcast on the delay.
UPDATE 12:00 PM: Call concluded.
UPDATE 11:41 AM: Shanahan says time between power on and first flight is 4 months. This should put first flight sometime in October. Though first flight could happen anywhere between September 1-December 31.
UPDATE 11:37 AM: Shanahan: All flight test aircraft will be flying by 1Q09. (This is going to be a rapid fire start up for the flight test program)
UPDATE 11:33 AM: Center wing box issue: "finite element modeling error" - 200 clips and brackets and 500 fasteners to strengthen the wingbox.
UPDATE 11:21 AM: Incomplete work reduced by 75% between Airplane 3 and Airplane 1. 787 wing will be, "taken to the point of destruction" by the end of the quarter on fatigue test frame. Production rate 10 per month by 2012 (16 per month was discussed at one point) ZY997 moves out at the end of April and Airplane 3 final assembly begins around the same time.
UPDATE 11:13 AM: Shanahan: Power on moved from April to June. Airplane 3 will have full interior for testing. Systems at, "near full functionality in labs." Systems being installed in Airplane 1. Two months lost due to wiring and wing box fixes.
UPDATE 11:06 AM: Call now underway. Carson: "More conservative approach to milestones the way to go." "Our actions, not our words that will get this airplane in the air."
UPDATE 9:19 AM: Complete Boeing release.
Key Points:
- Before June 30: 787 static and fatigue airframes will move to their testing; Dreamliner 3 and 4 will enter final assembly; hardware airworthiness qualifications will be complete; and power on will be achieved.
- First Flight 4Q08
- Entry into service 3Q09
- 25 deliveries planned in 2009
- 787-9 delayed until early 2012, previously scheduled for end of 2010. 787-3 will be second variant, no timeline specified.
UPDATE 9:05 AM: BREAKING - Boeing has announced 787 first flight will take place in the 4th quarter of 2008 and first delivery in the 3rd quarter of 2009.
UPDATE 3:10 AM: The Times of London is reporting that, "Boeing is expected to announce today that its 787 Dreamliner has been delayed by 18 months." Based on this estimate, entry in to service appears slated for around November 2009.
The Times also anticipates that, "Boeing is also thought to be ready to postpone or even scrap one of the three variants of the aircraft to enable its engineers to focus on solving existing problems. The likely victim will the 787-3, a high passenger density model designed for the Japanese market."
UPDATE 2:07 AM: Scott Hamilton's pre-analysis of the update call is a must read.
Update Call Synopsis - Courtesy of NYC777
* First flight moved to 4th Quarter 2008
* First Delivery moved to 3rd Quarter 2009
* First flight will take place approximately 4 months after power on
* Planned deliveries in 2009 will be about 25 airplanes
* Continued challenges on LN 1
* Included added margin to reduce the schedule risk due to discoveries made during flight testing
* Climb to full rate production will be more conservative than planned
* 787-9 first delivery will be in early 2012
* 787-3 will be 2nd derivative…no schedule provided
* Have made significant strides in finishing airplane 1 but not fast enough
* Supply base is healthier and reduced traveled work
* Fundamental technologies are sound
* Airplane #3 will have a full interior installed in the airplane this summer
* Powered on date moved to June 2008
* Not enough progress on traveled work on LN 1
* Needed to make engineering changes and reinforce the center wing box
* Both of these issues led to a two month delay in power on.
* Great progress in working through the build of airplane 1
* Well into systems installation on airplane 1
* Schedule also impacted by rework (wing box)
* Rework fell into the critical path for wiring and systems installation
* Confident in the amount of work to be done and the schedule leading up to power on of LN 1.
* Systems Installation - Wings are almost ready. Clear progress in the forward body. Installing systems in the aft body empennage and making their way to installing the mid body systems.
* Will check out and test every system in the airplane prior to first flight and after power on.
* The conservative testing approach will extend the testing period by 2 months.
* New schedule does not infer that the anticipate a major glitch but is planning in case they crop up.
* If they don’t need the additional time, they won’t use it...i.e. move the schedule up if there are no issues.
* Integration labs allows to simultaneously test over 90% of the systems functionality.
* 95% of systems functionality has been delivered except for brake controls, inflight entertainment, some elements of the power system, and the maintenance functionality of the flight control system.
* 98% of systems code has been written, tested, and delivered to Boeing.
* 100% Complete with the integration testing needed for power on
* 96% complete for testing needed for first flight
* Balance of testing and any needed corrective action needed will support first flight
* Majority 787 systems will be service ready at power on, other systems will ready by first flight.
* Risk mitigation and issues anticipation have been take into account
* Planning a gradual production ramp up beyond 2009
* Assuming a production rate of 10/month in 2012
* Will study how to improve on the 10/month during this year
* Improve completeness of parts and structures coming from suppliers
* 50% reduction in the amount of incomplete work on airplane 2 from airplane 1.
* Comparison of airplane 3 with airplane 1 shows a 75% reduction in the amount of incomplete work.
* Continue to make good progress in structural testing in Japan, Italy, Russia and the US
* Taken a fuselage section and the horizontal stab to ultimate load and beyond
* Composite test barrel testing went beyond the ultimate test load and had to stop for fear of destroying the fixture before the barrel
* Taken the partial wing span to limit loads, tested the wing to 5 of the 10 ultimate load conditions, remaining 5 test will be completed by the end of the 2nd quarter, 2008
* Have found some issues that are characterized and normal and minor, moved quickly to implement required changes.
* 15% of overall component testing yet to be done.
* Testing on full scale static and fatigue frames to start in the next couple of months.
* Will use the test results to incorporate weight reduction improvements to the actual airplanes.
* Certification activity continues, only have a handful of open issues
* GE has certified its engine on March 31st
* Week over week improvement in final assembly ops.
* Static airplane will move out of the factory at the end of April to make room for the third flying airplane. Parts for airplane 3 will arrive in Everett by the end of April
* Fatigue airplane will move to its test stand in June shortly followed by parts for airplane #4 to enter final assembly in June
* By June 30th will have static and fatigue frames out at their test sites, final assembly begun on airplanes 3 and 4 in Everett, completing systems hardware airworthiness qualifications, finishing safety of flight testing for system hardware and software integration, and receiving flight test systems hardware.
* R & D will likely increase from these changes but will not change 2008 earnings guidance
* 2009 earnings guidance will see impact of these changes
just some remarks
** If the first 100 aircraft are delayed at least 18 months, it is probably going to take Boeing years (5?) to recover the originally contracted deliveries.
** All 787 production slots that were left open for e.g the big US and european operators are likely filled up to limit compensation fees. airlines looking for aircraft in a few years have a problem. "Come back in 2015" doesn't make you popular with key customers like AF/KL, AA, Delta, UA and Cathay.
** Exisiting 767 / A300 / A330 operators that ordered 787 can hopefully hold on to their aircraft a bit longer but growth is an issue.
Expanding airlines (Asia, Middle East) see their fleet expansion being delayed, allowing established carriers to preemptively take positions in growth markets.
** Medium / long haul 300 seat segment (777-200, A330-300, A350-900, 787-9/-10) is hot as this moment. Boeing delaying further the 787-10 will offer further opportunities for the A350-900. Boeing has an issue here, a few years ago the A330-300 started outselling the 777-200ER already. A quick 777-200ER upgrade seems even more crusial. Where to get the cash?
** The 787 was supposed to replace a lot of 767 that were up for conversion. The freighter conversion companies and operators in the booming cargo market are facing a hole in their fleetplanning too.
** Boeing subcontractors that produced dozens of shipsets of their 787 parts will have to hold their expensive new production lines while costs (investments, personnel, facilities, subcontracts) go on : negative cashflow.
Engineers are being freed up to work on the problems? I'll admit I haven't been following all the details of late, but that sounds like a bit more of an in-depth set of problems than just production kinks. Of course I realize that the production process itself is a highly-engineered system, so from that standpoint I suppose it makes sense.
New Boeing name, "The Gang that couldn't shoot straight". I don't know why anyone believes anything this management team says any more. Did they mention anything about fasteners? No? Thank God, they're making progress ;-). All I know is I want to go work for Boeing. Think of it...if you can lose a "sole source" tanker deal TWICE, and then preside over 2 years worth of delays on the "company saving" airliner....I guess you can't be fired! Does anyone else think something is a tad off here?
First reaction could be to fire people / reorganize.
In reality I think Boeing cannot miss the people that took 787 responsibility for the last 4 years.
They are the ones that did the learning curve / know the problems & hopefully how to avoid new ones..
The first reaction is usually to storm the place with torches and pitchforks, but the reality is what it's always been: The disconnect between engineers and technicians, and upper mgmt surrounding themselves with yes-men. The truth is they vastly underestimated the international issues of building a very complex product and apparently not even the most expensive project mgmt software in the world can cross cultural barriers. Meanwhile, the folks in the hangar are saying 'I could've told you that if you'd just listen'. My money follows the boots on the ground every time while history just repeats itself.
It is easier to dream about aircraft than to build them. First the Sonic Cruiser and now the Dreamliner are both tainted by Boeing's smugness. Never think to well of yourself as that attitude brings failure. When the 380 was late Boeing was saying how that could never happen to them. Of course they forgot the 747 was two years late and suffered engine problems. Even now the 737 is being delivered with many discrepancies.
Did I hear Shanahan say they added two months to the flight test program?
interesting to see that they are blaming manufacturing supply chain issues, and at the same time are saying that they have almost fully functional systems in the test rigs. Well, by this time it should be systems fully functioning and certified to be operating in airlines very soon. What is said to have caused the delays is obviously hiding a number of other issues as well
What other simulations have they gotten wrong? The FAA likely will throw-out much of Boeing's prior certification data based on simulations.
The FAA will keep this bird in test for 3 years. Just watch.
Well lets see how the A350XWB will be. It probably be delayed also. It is normal for a new production aircraft to be delayed. Especially such new and complex aircraft.
Time Will only tell
Boeing has a long standing culture of arrogance, they dictated clients what they shall take not what was best for clients needs. When Airbus started taking orders like crazy in the 90s specially for the 319-321 family and went past the Seattle demi-gods, they appeared to wake up to reality (Mr. Stocipher had a lot to do with the change) but it did not take long for the NG execs to resuscitate that arrogance and inefficiency ....... and are paying the price: lots of claims money to agitated 787 clients, and losing the not so profitable business but extremely important in terms of corporate image: the USAF tanker project awarded to their bitter enemy Airbus who had the tact to be responsive to USAF's requirements whereas Boeing once more tried to tell USAF to take the product they make, and be thankful.
Well, keep on being arrogant and that will only bring more bread to Airbus table.
Damage control at its best. Using vague time frame references and nicely decorated euphemism. So now Boeing is into literature also, or is it lawyer speak? No references to performance shortfalls and weight issues, of course, everything is fine and dandy!
Did anyone discuss projected weights?
I still think that a 9 month flight test program is barely credible and that we will be back here again bfore christmas
thanks NYC777, well done
"95% of systems functionality has been delivered except for brake controls, inflight entertainment, some elements of the power system, and the maintenance functionality of the flight control system."
These were the key lines for me besides the new schedules for the -3 and the -9. I think this was actually done to serve obligations of forwardness.
- brake control system is a known issue for quite some time now, still not solved. Did the supplier conduct a full-scale test on a brake test stand yet? Or is it still planned to be done with the real bird only?
- elements of the power system...watch out for this one. There's no such thing as a perfect simulation or lab test. Issues to pop up after power-on for sure.
I'd wager they are going to fail on their new schedule. With a first flight in 2008 Q4, how can they expect to have first deliveries just 9 or 10 months later, in Q3 2009?
Good luck, fingers crossed.
It's somewhat comforting to see them finally fessing up on the production schedule. "Assuming a production rate of 10/month in 2012" is more realistic than past rates.
If I delivered these kind of results (or any of my management chain did for that matter) to my company not once, not twice, but three times...I (they) would be FIRED! Heads have got to roll. If management was too arrogant to listen to the shop floor...then fire the managers who helped create that environment. This is NOT a supplier issue. This is a Boeing management issue.
I fully agree with San Clemente with this being a Boeing management issue. That is how it has always been. If you read the book "Boeing v.s Airbus" It has the same things with the 777 and 767/757. Like they say history repeats it self. In this case a little too much.
The A380 debacle was partially the result of multiple politically motivated power centers.
What excuse does Boeing have, except hubris? Boeing's credibility is close to zero now.
Sorry to see more of the same tired rheroric.
They have serious issues, which they seem to hope will go away.
The much reviled Captain X from A.net, unfortunately gives a more compelling commentary of just where this programme is than the Carson/Shanahan "we are getting there" reports.
There are problems with the quality of the electrical supply that have been reported elsewhere, which I believe are a critical issue, but do not rate a mention.
2010 EIS could just be a tad optimistic.
Wouldn't it be the static test frame that the wing would be bent to destruction on?
Wouldn't it be the static test frame that the wing would be bent to destruction on?
Wouldn't it be the static test frame that the wing would be bent to destruction on?
Sorry bout that. Kept getting error messages from the server and thought the post wasn't going.
New name Nightmareliner
It really is turning into a bad dream for Boeing
A little birdie told me that Plane Number 1 is so screwed up that they don't think they can even use it for testing purposes. They're thinking that it won't be until plane number 7 that they actually get one to fly.
Would the person who just left the previous comment please contact me at flightblogger (at) gmail (dot) com please?
Thank you,
Jon
How can they use a static airframe for ultimate load test that uses a wingbox that is different than the one they will use in production? They are very different. Seems to me that the FAA should invalidate any flight test results from A/C using a wingbox design that does not represent the production configuration. Plus, frankly, it seems the "stiffened" wingbox has a higher chance of failing the ultimate load test due to use of dissimilar materials. Boeing can't risk that, and they can't risk the FAA saying "invalid test."
Perhaps this is the reason that the suggestion above about frames 1-6 might have merit.
The hole appears to be getting deeper.