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FlightBlogger Analysis: Boeing 787 first flight to slip to 2009?

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Late yesterday evening, Boeing and the IAM announced that both sides had walked away from the bargaining table as talks had once again broken down in an effort to negotiate an acceptable contract and end the 39 day strike that has paralyzed jetliner production.

As a result. Boeing has now begun to publicly speculate that first flight for 787 could move into 2009, while maintaining officially that first flight will occur in 2008.

Randy Tinseth, Vice President of Marketing for Boeing Commercial Aircraft, said in Paris today that:
"There is no question that a prolonged strike will move the first flight into next year. But we don't know how long it will last."

We are looking very closely at it. An extended strike will push the first flight into next year. Whether we are in an extended strike is something we are looking at."
An assessment of the 787 schedules obtained by this blogger, point to a January first flight at the earliest. This conclusion is based on several key assumptions.

1.    According to program sources, assembly of Dreamliner One was set to be completed on August 31, but was pushed to October 6 before the strike began.
2.    The same schedules indicate that first flight was originally set for October 29, but had shifted into November as of the Farnborough Air Show in July.
3.    Boeing expects a one-for-one slip in the 787 schedule due to the strike.

Key ground vibration tests need to be completed on Dreamliner Two before Dreamliner One can fly as well. With a 36-day slip in assembly completion and 39-day strike, the October 29 first flight now finds itself in January.

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7 Comments

WingBender

1Q09. Maybe.

Back to work

I guess we all spoke to soon! The IAM morons seem to think they own Boeing. With the economy flailing and stock prices in the tank the “I AM” Soaring with my head in the clouds IAM thinks that they are still worthy of being crowned King at Boeing!
If the IAM would take a deep breath they might start to see the world as it is today not October 3, 2007. I want you IAM idiots to know that there are many folks suffering because of your actions. Almost every supplier has had to ether curtail their work week or displace hard working family members. Heck they all should file a lawsuit to get compensation for your lack of professionalism. With your not willing to take what was offered only demonstrates the IAM is nothing more than an intuition built on greed and corruption. The IAM rules its members through fear. They are always running around saying the sky is falling! “SMOKE AND MIRRORS”
Let us look at what the IAM might be up to… Could it be that the Union Leadership is on the take? Could it be that they want Boeing Commercial Airplanes to go out of business? Could they be working for Airbus or Northrop Grumman or maybe someone else? The IAM leadership sure can’t be working for its members! If I were in charge of negotiation for my fellow members I would be bombarding the folks in Chicago with my demands. Maybe the IAM can respond and give us in the non-union world an idea of what they are really doing with its member’s money? Tell us what they are doing to get the differences resolved? I am sure that Jon Ostrower can help you find your voice.
Now what about the Chicago Boeing Leadership? What is it that they want from the IAM and what will it take to get them back to the table? I can see why Boeing wants an open shop. It has worked very well for many of its other sites Mesa, AZ has a work force of over 1200 and the employees seem very happy and secure with what Boeing has offered there. Boeing handles its employees in the non-union states with great respect and acknowledges their true value.
The IAM needs to roll up their sleeves, brew the coffee and sit down and hammer out an agreement. Boeing needs to set a firm date to get this resolved or start the process of relocation of the Commercial Airplane Operation to some other place. Boeing needs to conduct business in a way and in a place where it can be free to so in an ethical business manner without the fear of their business being held hostage by its employees and self serving union tyrants.
Boeing and IAM leadership, I mean this when I say the WORLD is watching and we want to see something happen! Good, Bad or Ugly, get something done.

Thanks Concerned people of the world aerospace economy

Blu Yonder

I must really say, it sounds more and more like using the strike to do the behind the scenes redesign work while enjoying no additional delay compensation for force majeur!
If Boeing is serious, it would try and negotiate a deal to continue work on one prototype. This doesn't look good and is worrying. With all the financial disasters around them it looks like they inherited the lemming gene!

johnny stick

So the IAM wants job security for its members. It wants guarentee of future jobs for workers not yet born or not yet part of the payroll. Sounds a little like the IAM is using its present workers to secure its own(the union's) future.
Why would Boeing ever agree to job security for the IAM members if, in three years, the IAM could strike again? a one month strike every three years is a 3% loss of revenue. I bet this is more than the executives make all combined. Sounds like the IAM is just chasing Boeing out of town. Boeing only needs to resurrect the old McDonnel-Douglas aircraft company in Mesa and then all the Seattle jobs will go poof. IMHO a secure future for the work force is to become more valuable to Boein than your salary. If I was a IAM member, I would use the Boeing gifts of free education to develop a second career or improve my worth to Boeing.

I totally agree with "back to work" on this. He has got the right thinking here. IAM should realize that the world does not revolve around them and that the world is facing a recession like no other but they still are not obvious to the things that are going on around them. If I would see an IAM leadership person I would try to beat some sense into them but I don't think that is possible.

www.iranaviation.ir
sdsd

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